How Does This Happen?

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nevdully's

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How Does This Happen?

PostMon Feb 23, 2015 1:00 am

W. McGee a 19-15 base stealer vs a +5 pitcher and +1 Catcher...get thrown out twice attempting to steal?
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Whoopycat

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Re: How Does This Happen?

PostMon Feb 23, 2015 1:48 pm

There's a (-2) adjustment for holding the runner at 1st... so total pitcher/catcher adj would be +4.

I'm guessing he didn't get his good lead and got thrown out on a 20 roll both times. :(
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nevdully's

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Re: How Does This Happen?

PostMon Feb 23, 2015 2:18 pm

Ty sir!
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ratioman2

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Re: How Does This Happen?

PostMon Feb 23, 2015 2:53 pm

True, with a small clarification. The total pitcher/catcher adjustment can never be more than +5/-5. Also, the hold rating is -2 only if the runner has a good lead, with a bad lead it is -4. You can add these two together, so you can get -9 eg.Even with the adjustment, the runner can never be given a 1-20 reading if he is held on base.
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nevdully's

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Re: How Does This Happen?

PostMon Feb 23, 2015 6:02 pm

Ty again. :)
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scorehouse

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Re: How Does This Happen?

PostMon Feb 23, 2015 7:01 pm

what's are the team and player steal settings?
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gkhd11a

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Re: How Does This Happen?

PostMon Feb 23, 2015 9:39 pm

Under advanced rules if the runner is being held the net result for a steal can never exceed 19 and the runner when held has a 95% chance of success at best. Also the holding turns McGee to a 17 - 11 stealer and you cannot add more than 5 to those totals so as to trying to steal he becomes 19-16 on stolen base attempts against this team if held.

In total it is a 4% likelihood he got a good lead and thrown out both times 64% chance had a bad lead and thrown out both times and 32% chance it was a good lead thrown out and a bad lead throw out.

The overall odds on this occurring on those 2 steal attempts was: 2.93% chance of being thrown out twice
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Valen

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Re: How Does This Happen?

PostMon Feb 23, 2015 10:58 pm

Also in regard to runner being held. Pretty sure Hal will always hold an * runner.
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nevdully's

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Re: How Does This Happen?

PostTue Feb 24, 2015 12:00 am

Ty again guys, mucho.

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