2014 set sleepers

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l.strether

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Re: 2014 set sleepers

PostMon Mar 09, 2015 8:22 am

Thanks for the excellent refresher course on the x-charts. It's been 30-odd years since I played the board game, but I do now remember the basic fielding charts and orange cards. I haven't, however, seen or used the comparative fielding tables you mentioned . Since I've started playing on-line, I've developed my own unwritten value system for each position. In other words, I know how much offense I'm willing to give up for defensive excellence at each position and vice versa. It's not perfect, but it's worked pretty well for me.


P.s. If you don't know already, the Mets scored the most prospects (7) on BA's 2015 top 100 list: Syndergaard, Matz, Nimmo, Herrera, Plawecki, Conforto, and Rosario. None of them are saviors, but the esteem BA cast on the lot is a good sign.
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Ninersphan

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Re: 2014 set sleepers

PostMon Mar 09, 2015 8:36 am

l.strether wrote:Thanks for the excellent refresher course on the x-charts. It's been 30-odd years since I played the board game, but I do now remember the basic fielding charts and orange cards. I haven't, however, seen or used the comparative fielding tables you mentioned . Since I've started playing on-line, I've developed my own unwritten value system for each position. In other words, I know how much offense I'm willing to give up for defensive excellence at each position and vice versa. It's not perfect, but it's worked pretty well for me.


P.s. If you don't know already, the Mets scored the most prospects (7) on BA's 2015 top 100 list: Syndergaard, Matz, Nimmo, Herrera, Plawecki, Conforto, and Rosario. None of them are saviors, but the esteem BA cast on the lot is a good sign.




If your memory only recalls basic fielding and Orange, you never played with the super advanced fielding charts then, which are blue and what the online engine uses. Here's a link to the wiki Bernie wrote a few years ago that will take you to a link showing the actual charts:
http://somonline.wikia.com/wiki/Charts

Here's the Infield range error:
http://smg.photobucket.com/user/berniehou/media/SOM%20charts/ifrangeerrors.jpg.html

and results:
http://smg.photobucket.com/user/berniehou/media/SOM%20charts/ifsymbols.jpg.html

I'll let you look at the outfield. And don't worry it won't interfer with your card valuation. Wouldn't want the old dog to learn a new trick. ;) :D


The comparative charts don't take offense into account, but rather give you a basis for comparison, if the offense is relatively even, on strictly the defensive ratings. In other words, how a 1e35 compares to a 3e4 and whether or not the 3e4 is actually the better fielder in Strat.

As for the Mets prospects, VERY much aware, probably to the detriment of my keeper teams, as I'm not as aware of other teams prospect as i should be, but thanks. It's still very baffling to me why they haven''t used a little of that organizational depth, especially at SP to try and improve the MLB roster. I'd very much like to see Murphy and Gee moved and better defensive players brought in at the middle infield positions. In fact, for a team that's is going to be so heavily dependant on starting pitching for success, their seeming neglect of defense, especially in the infield, is baffling.
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tcochran

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Re: 2014 set sleepers

PostMon Mar 09, 2015 11:03 am

STEVE F wrote:A simple, but effective, formula you can add to your rating disc spreadsheet

((0.689* BB units )+(0.722* HBP units)+(0.892*1B units)+(1.283*2B units)+(1.635*3B units)+(2.135*HR units))/(AB+BB units+HBP units)


Are there any factors calculated for reducing a player's value for games missed due to injury?
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tcochran

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Re: 2014 set sleepers

PostMon Mar 09, 2015 11:15 am

Ninersphan wrote:With the results from those charts, people have created comparative tables, not official game ones mind you, that will show you the comparisons between every possible range and error rating for any position seen here:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf ... atfldg.htm

What those comparative charts show, is whether a SS that's a 2e34 is a better defender over the course of 162 game season than one who is a 3e8 by figuring the hits +errors and total bases allowed by the two players on a per at bat and per game basis. The math is way over my head, as the chart shows the low range high error player (2e34 above) is worse defensively than the high range low error player (3e8) and it shows the threshold for when that difference occurs based on how high the error rating for the better range player.


Just to make sure I'm reading this chart correctly, please confirm:

a. This says that a 1B with a 1e18 rating has the same defensive value as one with a 4e2 rating, right? One gives up in errors what the other lacks in range,

b. And that both of those would give up 6.1 total bases per game, yes?
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Knerrpool

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Re: 2014 set sleepers

PostMon Mar 09, 2015 11:35 am

STEVE F wrote:A simple, but effective, formula you can add to your rating disc spreadsheet

((0.689* BB units )+(0.722* HBP units)+(0.892*1B units)+(1.283*2B units)+(1.635*3B units)+(2.135*HR units))/(AB+BB units+HBP units)


I didn't think the ratings guide gives doubles and triples? How do you get those figures?
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Ninersphan

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Re: 2014 set sleepers

PostMon Mar 09, 2015 11:40 am

tcochran wrote:
Ninersphan wrote:With the results from those charts, people have created comparative tables, not official game ones mind you, that will show you the comparisons between every possible range and error rating for any position seen here:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf ... atfldg.htm

What those comparative charts show, is whether a SS that's a 2e34 is a better defender over the course of 162 game season than one who is a 3e8 by figuring the hits +errors and total bases allowed by the two players on a per at bat and per game basis. The math is way over my head, as the chart shows the low range high error player (2e34 above) is worse defensively than the high range low error player (3e8) and it shows the threshold for when that difference occurs based on how high the error rating for the better range player.


Just to make sure I'm reading this chart correctly, please confirm:

a. This says that a 1B with a 1e18 rating has the same defensive value as one with a 4e2 rating, right? One gives up in errors what the other lacks in range,

b. And that both of those would give up 6.1 total bases per game, yes?


Yup you're reading it right
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Ninersphan

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Re: 2014 set sleepers

PostMon Mar 09, 2015 11:44 am

Knerrpool wrote:
STEVE F wrote:A simple, but effective, formula you can add to your rating disc spreadsheet

((0.689* BB units )+(0.722* HBP units)+(0.892*1B units)+(1.283*2B units)+(1.635*3B units)+(2.135*HR units))/(AB+BB units+HBP units)


I didn't think the ratings guide gives doubles and triples? How do you get those figures?

The rating guide doesn't give douse and triples he either plugged them in from a stat site it its just the number of triples or doubles, looks at the card and gets the count by counting or he(like me) is a member at SOMWorld.com and added the double triple count cumns to the ratings spread sheet that they produce every year.
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childsmwc

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Re: 2014 set sleepers

PostMon Mar 09, 2015 12:49 pm

I didn't realize baseball link factory had those posted. I will go check those against my own defensive tables and see how accurate they are.

At one point in the early days of SOM I would manually count each of the cards in ATG and run them through my own RC model, which is why I built the defensive tables to accurately value the entire card.
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ROBERTLATORRE

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Re: 2014 set sleepers

PostMon Mar 09, 2015 12:57 pm

Knerrpool wrote:
STEVE F wrote:A simple, but effective, formula you can add to your rating disc spreadsheet

((0.689* BB units )+(0.722* HBP units)+(0.892*1B units)+(1.283*2B units)+(1.635*3B units)+(2.135*HR units))/(AB+BB units+HBP units)


I didn't think the ratings guide gives doubles and triples? How do you get those figures?


Sean Lahman has been providing a free db for years, it can be downloaded from here. http://www.seanlahman.com/baseball-archive/statistics/

His DBs power OOTP baseball for historical seasons.

You can also get the info from BBREF.com http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2014-standard-batting.shtml
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bbfan

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Re: 2014 set sleepers

PostMon Mar 09, 2015 12:59 pm

Ninersphan wrote:
tcochran wrote:
Ninersphan wrote:With the results from those charts, people have created comparative tables, not official game ones mind you, that will show you the comparisons between every possible range and error rating for any position seen here:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf ... atfldg.htm

What those comparative charts show, is whether a SS that's a 2e34 is a better defender over the course of 162 game season than one who is a 3e8 by figuring the hits +errors and total bases allowed by the two players on a per at bat and per game basis. The math is way over my head, as the chart shows the low range high error player (2e34 above) is worse defensively than the high range low error player (3e8) and it shows the threshold for when that difference occurs based on how high the error rating for the better range player.


Just to make sure I'm reading this chart correctly, please confirm:

a. This says that a 1B with a 1e18 rating has the same defensive value as one with a 4e2 rating, right? One gives up in errors what the other lacks in range,

b. And that both of those would give up 6.1 total bases per game, yes?


Yup you're reading it right


I must be missing something. For example, in a "typical" season a 3B playing 156 games, will get somewhere between 70 to 80 X chances the entire year and make outs on 60%. For example I just randomly went back to my last 13 season played: Cabrera (4e14) played in 155 games, had 73 X chances, fielded 39 (53.4%) and made 15 errors. This comes no where close to the the 13.5 TB per game the chart indicates. At 13.5 TB per game that extrapolates to over 2000 TB's given up in a season.

JT
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