2014 set sleepers

I must be missing something. For example, in a "typical" season a 3B playing 156 games, will get somewhere between 70 to 80 X chances the entire year and make outs on 60%. For example I just randomly went back to my last 13 season played: Cabrera (4e14) played in 155 games, had 73 X chances, fielded 39 (53.4%) and made 15 errors. This comes no where close to the the 13.5 TB per game the chart indicates. At 13.5 TB per game that extrapolates to over 2000 TB's given up in a season.

JT

I already said I do not understand the math, if you poke around the think factory site I'm pretty sure I remember reading an explanation but it went WTF over my head.

I do believe though the stats on the chart are presented as card chances( out of 108,like is in the ratings book) not percentages based on 100% Maybe that brings it in line with your stats???


I'm a communications major, math ain't my thing, unless it's counting down on a clock. I still think my high school trig teacher fudged my grade so I passed and didn't screw up the school's passing stats, and make no mention of pre-calc and Calculus ( SHUDDER) I still get hives thinking about it.

He might be reading it right, because that is what it seems to say, but as BBFAN says here, that number seems way too high to be based just on the chances of a particular position having a fielding chance, and then successfully or not dealing with that chance.

Just a flier with the math, but if there are 5 plate appearances per side per inning, that is 45 plate appearances a game for a nine inning game Even using a SS, with their 6/216 chance of an X-chart reading, that would by my math and figures give 1.25 X-chart chances a game. Other positions would have even fewer chances per game. So, if every SS x-chart result gave an inside the park homerun, that still only costs (1.25 x 4) or 6 TB a game. No? Obviously, I am estimating what I think is "worst case" scenarios to err on the side of caution. Am I off somewhere on the logic and/or process?

A simple, but effective, formula you can add to your rating disc spreadsheet

((0.689* BB units )+(0.722* HBP units)+(0.892*1B units)+(1.283*2B units)+(1.635*3B units)+(2.135*HR units))/(AB+BB units+HBP units)

I didn't think the ratings guide gives doubles and triples? How do you get those figures?

The rating guide doesn't give douse and triples he either plugged them in from a stat site it its just the number of triples or doubles, looks at the card and gets the count by counting or he(like me) is a member at SOMWorld.com and added the double triple count cumns to the ratings spread sheet that they produce every year.

Niners answered this for me. I get the numbers from SOMworld, but I used to just count them from the cards. Either way is good. You can also use the think factory defensive chart and throw that into the equation if you like.

I do like the chart (and others like it) for being able to compare across ranges and e levels, especially after having a mini-love affair with the Hanley Ramirez-Jhonny Peralta cards in the 2013 set, and debating is the the 3 with a high E rating better or worse than the 4 with a lower E.

I generally decide that I can preserve Hanley's health better by having him DH.

I do like the chart (and others like it) for being able to compare across ranges and e levels, especially after having a mini-love affair with the Hanley Ramirez-Jhonny Peralta cards in the 2013 set, and debating is the the 3 with a high E rating better or worse than the 4 with a lower E.

I generally decide that I can preserve Hanley's health better by having him DH.

Exactly, I know the first time i discovered them, or ones like them, there was an accompanying article that broke them down, but I'll be damned if I can find it now. I'm also pretty sure the charts are based on 162 games and do not account for injuries. But like you said, even my fragile math addled brain can compare a couple of columns and see when one gets higher than the other.

I remember those split decks - little orange cards - back from the 1970's. Man, I'm old.

I must be missing something. For example, in a "typical" season a 3B playing 156 games, will get somewhere between 70 to 80 X chances the entire year and make outs on 60%. For example I just randomly went back to my last 13 season played: Cabrera (4e14) played in 155 games, had 73 X chances, fielded 39 (53.4%) and made 15 errors. This comes no where close to the the 13.5 TB per game the chart indicates. At 13.5 TB per game that extrapolates to over 2000 TB's given up in a season.

JT

BBFAN - I don't think the ratings are TBs. From the BBTF site, the numbers on that page are described as "These numbers correspond to the numbers you would find in Lamanna's Baseball Bulletin's or Strat Fan's card rating books.". They might be card chances or something like that. I'm not familiar with those ratings sheets, but it's not total bases.

I looked at my fielding calculations and a 3b-4 e14 would allow approximately .229 OPS points over a season. Extrapolate that to 300 PAs (only on pitchers cards) and he would allow 68.7 bases in a season when the ball is hit to him with an "X".

Based on your stats for Cabrera for that season, he had 73 x chances, converted 39 chances, failed to convert 34. From memory, I think the 3b X chart is an even distribution between 1 base and 2 base hits and errors, so that would calculate to (34 failed chances * 1.5 bases per chance) = 51 total bases. A little low but close.

Also, in the SOM game stats, I believe errors are counted in the X chances that aren't converted, not added to them.

Doing a lot of this from memory, will check my math later tonight.

I remember those split decks - little orange cards - back from the 1970's. Man, I'm old.

I remember them from the 60's young fella!

I must be missing something. For example, in a "typical" season a 3B playing 156 games, will get somewhere between 70 to 80 X chances the entire year and make outs on 60%. For example I just randomly went back to my last 13 season played: Cabrera (4e14) played in 155 games, had 73 X chances, fielded 39 (53.4%) and made 15 errors. This comes no where close to the the 13.5 TB per game the chart indicates. At 13.5 TB per game that extrapolates to over 2000 TB's given up in a season.

JT

BBFAN - I don't think the ratings are TBs. From the BBTF site, the numbers on that page are described as "These numbers correspond to the numbers you would find in Lamanna's Baseball Bulletin's or Strat Fan's card rating books.". They might be card chances or something like that. I'm not familiar with those ratings sheets, but it's not total bases.

I looked at my fielding calculations and a 3b-4 e14 would allow approximately .229 OPS points over a season. Extrapolate that to 300 PAs (only on pitchers cards) and he would allow 68.7 bases in a season when the ball is hit to him with an "X".

Based on your stats for Cabrera for that season, he had 73 x chances, converted 39 chances, failed to convert 34. From memory, I think the 3b X chart is an even distribution between 1 base and 2 base hits and errors, so that would calculate to (34 failed chances * 1.5 bases per chance) = 51 total bases. A little low but close.

Also, in the SOM game stats, I believe errors are counted in the X chances that aren't converted, not added to them.

Doing a lot of this from memory, will check my math later tonight.

I already said they were based on card chances not percentages

I remember those split decks - little orange cards - back from the 1970's. Man, I'm old.

I hated them, too. They got soft and kind of dirty too fast. Plus, I was repulsed by one important realization: If I had a Home Run 1, flyball B 2-20 rating, and I just pulled the #1 card a minute earlier for a stolen base, I just lost my homer to that steal.

Quickly figured out how to deal with random number tables (at least for solitaire games) and the 20-sided die to solve that problem.