Game 1 vs. Kershaw

I have my first game of the season tonight. I am 99% sure my opponent for game 1 will be Clayton Kershaw.

My #1 starter is Felix Hernandez. Should I pitch Hernandez vs Kershaw or pitch my 4th starter, Tanner Roark against him?

My thinking would be that I might waste a Hernandez start if i pitch him against Kershaw.

Am i over thinking this?

Your number one is supposed to give you the best chance for a win - will your number four give you a better chance to beat Kershaw? Anyway, that's how I look at it - the game is a game, it's not a foregone conclusion that Kershaw will win every time he takes the mound. To me, thinking of "wasting" a start against him is self-defeating. Anyway, that's my two cents.

Thanks for the reply. I ended up using my fourth and lost 3 to 2. I think it was worth a shot. If this were real and simulation there would be no question.

Again thanks for replying

I like what you did.

Look at it this way. For the sake of discussion, let's assume the entire league went with a conventional five man staff priced $6-5-4-3-2. All things being equal, assume any SP vs any another SP of the same price results in a draw. Each pitcher goes 15-15 on the season. But if you bump your $2 guy in the number one slot, your 6-5-4-3 now match up against everyone else's 5-4-3-2 for the entire season. You have an advantage in 80% of your pitching matchups (theoretically) throughout the rest of the season. Not to mention, run support typically goes higher as your batters face progressively less expensive pitching.

HOWEVER...

I've tried this lots of times in lots of ways with various twists and it almost never works out the way it should in theory. Other managers use four *SP staffs. Some use 6-7 man staffs with match-up pitchers. Some use low dollar staffs. Some use high dollar staffs.

I've found in my own experience, that if i just throw out my own $6-5-4-3-2 in order and on autopilot, it usually works out better for me.