Top MVP candidates for 2015 NL

agreed on HanRam. and there always seems to be the "out of nowhere" candidate. For example Donaldson 2 years ago and Brantley last year.

Strether you are way off on Hanley's career obp, it's .373 not .300. He and Votto are long shots but they have established upside that exceeds all but a handful in the game. Harper's talent and age makes him highly likely to blow the doubters out of the water. Very bullish on him

Strether you are way off on Hanley's career obp, it's .373 not .300. He and Votto are long shots but they have established upside that exceeds all but a handful in the game. Harper's talent and age makes him highly likely to blow the doubters out of the water. Very bullish on him

Yes I was; I scanned right over his career BA and saw it as his OBP. Thanks for correcting it. As to "upside," I have no idea what you mean by that, since your definition of it continually changes. So, please tell me what your exact definition of upside is.

As to HanRam and Votto, nothing I said--which you didn't address--changes. HanRam has only played 100 games once in the last 4 years, and that was last year's measly 128. His defense is terrible and will only get worse playing left field (for the first time) in Fenway. That doesn't add up to MVP production. And Votto's run production has been declining the last few years, and even people in his organization think he has gotten way too selective. That also doesn't lead up to MVP production.

As to Harper, like everybody, I love his talent and see MVP seasons in his future, just not this one. He needs to learn--which he will--better pitch selection and more mature all-around play before he becomes an MVP candidate. I don't see it this year, but I definitely see it as a better possibility than HanRam or Votto doing it.

As recently as 2013 HanRam put up a .400+/.600 obp/slug line in a much tougher hitter's park than Fenway, and in the same year Votto stayed healthy all year with a .435obp/high 4's slugging pct. They have "established" with recent past performance an "upside" unequalled by the game's hitters who don't land on my top 10 list. It's reasonable to argue that younger healthier guys should displace them on my top 10 list, but it's just as reasonable to opine that they belong. Boston also stands a great chance of winning the division which MVP voters love. Yes I am aware of their injury risks. Playing left militates that a bit versus playing short. They belong in my opinion.

As recently as 2013 HanRam put up a .400+/.600 obp/slug line in a much tougher hitter's park than Fenway, and in the same year Votto stayed healthy all year with a .435obp/high 4's slugging pct.

This doesn't counter anything I said about HanRam's or Votto's considerable drawbacks, although you added in Votto's terrible health record the last 4 years. So, you must agree with the points I made about them and why they probably won't be on a MVP Top Ten list.

They have "established" with recent past performance an "upside" unequalled by the game's hitters who don't land on my top 10 list.

This still doesn't say anything about what you mean by "upside." If you're going to use that term effectively, you have to explain what you mean by it. You haven't done so so far. So, at this point, your statement is vague, since you don't make clear what you mean by the term. I'm still looking forward to your definition; I'm sure it will be interesting.

"Established upside" = high level of recent past performance.

And "established" means over a non-trivial sample size such that one can conclude it's part of their skill set. And nowhere did I characterize Votto's health record over 4 years as terrible, in spite of how much you respect my opinion and therefore want me to agree with you. Thank you for the compliment.

While you're at it, please identify 5 NL hitters who either have superior career offensive stats to HRam and Votto or who have bettered their 2013 rate stats within the past 5 years. Then make your case for your own top 10 list. It will probably contain the likes of Shelby Miller.

"Established upside" = high level of recent past performance.

Ok, that's a workable definition. However, if you use it, then both Votto's and HanRam's established upsides are unimpressive. Neither has been able to stay healthy much the last three years and HanRam hasn't been able to stay healthy the past four years. Votto's power numbers have been unimpressive at best the last three years, and HanRam's only season with 100+ games the last four years was mediocre at best.

So, it's safe to say their established upsides have not been "unparallelled" as you said. In fact, there have been many players whose established upsides have paralleled or surpassed theirs.


P.s. I have no idea why you see my statement of Votto as respect of your opinion. To be frank, I don't respect your opinion. Your don't reason your analyses well, and your excessive dependence on War just hampers you further. I do hold hope for your improvement, though...

You want me. You stalk me on these threads. I blush. Name 5 superior hitters, still waiting....