Convince me to play

Years ago I played Strat with cards very casually. I recently came into a lot more free time (previously had zero) and decided to give the Online free trial a go. 18 games (of 21) later the postmortem is embarrassing. A 3B with 300+ home runs and multiple GG years in real life (and .844 OPS that year) who had a 6-43 streak (just 7 TB) while fielding .900 playing for me. I pulled him; even though the games are supposed to be independent, game after game of 0-4 didn't seem like it. A stud pitcher who won almost 30 games that year losing three starts in a row. Whole series with just two runs scored. Team average envious of Mario Mendoza's.

I don't mind bad luck and I understand the nature of short seasons in the law of averages. I also get that someone has to lose, but how do I tell what's luck and what's me being terrible at this? It would be nice to know before proceeding with a paid season. I'm okay trying and failing but I'd rather not waste my time with something I'm nearly guaranteed to lose. How much of an investment (time/money) am I looking at before I improve?

All advice welcome.

If you are looking to duplicate stats you are in the wrong place. the online game is more about team building in line with the payroll, your selected ballpark and your competition. if you link your team we can analyze and comment. There is a lot of information in the misc stat page such as roll count by pitcher and batter.

...I don't mind bad luck and I understand the nature of short seasons in the law of averages...

Are you sure? Nothing you quoted is unexpected or unusual in a short series of games. And this applies whether you are talking about the online game, the board game, or even real life. In other words, there will be wild swings in the short run in Strat-O-Matic just as there is in real baseball.

What will make you terrible at this game is if you start benching players (or even worse, cutting them) because they are in a "slump." A player's card doesn't change whether he goes 0-for-4, 0-for-20, or if he just hit 3 homeruns in the previous game.

Furthermore, everything Scumby said is exactly right. Evaluating players, the challenge of the autodraft, fitting a team to your ballpark, spending your payroll effectively all make for a fun challenge. However, don't expect to win right away. You have a lot to learn, but you came to the right place to do so. Many of the veterans will be happy to give you general suggestions about the game and specific suggestions for your team if you just ask.

As you noted, the 21 game trial version is statistically limited. You didn't mention which player set you used, but I have found the ATG set difficult. The extremes of excellent pitchers against excellent hitters seem to make the results more extreme in their variability, though that may just be my illusion and not statistically accurate. I encourage you to try at least a full season. I like the mystery leagues for increasing my luck chances against better managers. The current season is good for learning, with less luck element.

There is definitely a learning curve and lessons to be learned with more experience. Fortunately, there is a lot of useful information from a variety of managers posted on this site.

I don't mind bad luck and I understand the nature of short seasons in the law of averages. I also get that someone has to lose, but how do I tell what's luck and what's me being terrible at this?

I would expect to be potentially terrible at it, especially in the short term. I am somewhat good at it(now) but I failed to make the playoffs in my first seven tries. Of course, some excel immediately, but they would be exceptions to the rule IMO. Some people never get very good at it, but they still really enjoy playing. As you said, someone has to lose and for every .525 winning percentage there is a .475 winning percentage out there. I loved playing even when I was losing then I eventually was able to get the hang of it.

Ballpark effects are huge. Those #'s you see on the card are homerun chances as per the ballpark dimensions. In leagues with twelve all star teams, the pitching era's are higher than you would expect. The best way to help your pitchers, is to have middle infielders and outfielders with good range.

You may have had very bad luck after 21 games but also you may have had an inferior team. If you want to post a link to your team, many of us can point out potential flaws that would help you build future teams.

Be careful. This game is addicting.

I played years ago also---and did not play online until 2013 (with the 2012 set).

Most likely you will take your lumps for a while--for me--drafting the right players for the park was an issue (especially pitchers) and I still make obvious mistakes that I see 20 games into a league, but with 20% drop penalties you can be stuck.

I would advise starting with the 5/10/20% penalty leagues, so if you draft a player that is poor in your home park you have 41 games to drop him with a 5% drop penalty---sometimes the player may not be a good match within the division either.

Don't drop too many players or you really have no chance---but you actually can learn a lot from a poor team.

Don't get upset about stats---just compare your stats to the other teams in the league--ERAs are always up and Batting averages always down.

I'll try to post the team later as it's after 4am in the east. Which page would I link to?

I'm not trying to duplicate stats so much as noticing a huge anomaly. A slumping hitter who's had ups and downs I can handle (programmatically, so could their engine, allowing both hot and cold streaks to regress more slowly to the mean, but I recognize they don't do it that way), but it's unlikely that downs would be the first and only thing I would get unless I was doing something wrong, which is my fear.

I knew streaks were possible but when the whole team is this lousy for 21 games (6-15, 3-0 followed by 3-15) I feel like I have to blame myself. Real managers are fired for better (1985 Yogi Berra?). That's not .475 versus .525; that's historical futility on a '62 Mets scale. Remember also it was against other novices, which does not bode well once I'm against seasoned players. I recognize I would get better over time but it's an expensive hobby to wake up to a sweep every morning for months (years?) until I do. I can enjoy it even if I don't win, but I won't enjoy it if I can't possibly win.

Thanks, all.

It's also a 12 team all star league. No weak pitchers to beat up on so stats are going to be down some

Matching wits with a buncha other really smart guys! I have a formula(basically following a lot of basic advice from this forum) which can usually guarantee me a play off spot( and sadly no championships) but its really fun to try different measures, I did a steal base team that did very well. I have also tried pitching team in pitching parks( always last place for me) Hitting teams in hitting parks( again last place for me) . I have tried many other types of team with mixed results. It is addicting!

As to luck, well the same guys win a lot so they must know something! Yes, looking at a crappy team each morning is a bummer but get a winner and its a great way to start the day!!