Convince me to play

I'll try to post the team later as it's after 4am in the east. Which page would I link to?

I'm not trying to duplicate stats so much as noticing a huge anomaly. A slumping hitter who's had ups and downs I can handle (programmatically, so could their engine, allowing both hot and cold streaks to regress more slowly to the mean, but I recognize they don't do it that way), but it's unlikely that downs would be the first and only thing I would get unless I was doing something wrong, which is my fear.

I knew streaks were possible but when the whole team is this lousy for 21 games (6-15, 3-0 followed by 3-15) I feel like I have to blame myself. Real managers are fired for better (1985 Yogi Berra?). That's not .475 versus .525; that's historical futility on a '62 Mets scale. Remember also it was against other novices, which does not bode well once I'm against seasoned players. I recognize I would get better over time but it's an expensive hobby to wake up to a sweep every morning for months (years?) until I do. I can enjoy it even if I don't win, but I won't enjoy it if I can't possibly win.

Thanks, all.

Well, 6-15 is "only" futile on a 2014 Arizona Diamondbacks level, not a 1962 New York Mets level, so you are no Casey Stengel...and he was a HOF manager!

I am a seasoned player, both online now, and in the tabletop game since 1974. I win enough to keep coming back, but I also find my team getting the 4-15 collapse in the homestretch of the Players Championship. It happens, and the small sample you experienced is painful. But it sounds like you would have the time and interest to "study" the player cards and evaluate who can do what.

My personal thought is that the All Time Great games (which must be what you were playing) is a very difficult game to play as a beginner/casual player. Sure, you get all the greats, but you wind up with the weird results because the competition is so skewed, so losing because Walter Johnson pulled a 6.00 ERA or Ty Cobb hit .230 becomes that much more noticeable (and 21 games offering an even smaller sample worsens it). If you decide to buy in with a team, my advice would be to try the latest set of cards (based on the 2014 season). I think the learning curve is aided by simple following of baseball in the media, even if headlines do not always translate to dice rolls.

My personal thought is that the All Time Great games (which must be what you were playing) is a very difficult game to play as a beginner/casual player. Sure, you get all the greats, but you wind up with the weird results because the competition is so skewed...

Completely agree with Turtle, the ATG player pool is massive so the differences between winning and losing teams becomes much less than in the smaller player card sets. I gave up on ATG early on, took me a few years to figure out how to be successful there. Break in with the single season card sets would be my recommendation.

Jump in, the waters is fine! Just watch out for the sharks (but that's another thread completely LOL).

I would definately start with one of the single year games (1986, 1999, or the current year). The Mystery card games can be great or frustrating as heck. The link below is a 60's mystery season that was my 3rd online team (my 1st 2 teams were 70-92 and 80-82) which shows if you get some luck and surprising performances from low priced cards (Mudcat Grant 16-5 at just over $1.0MM) you can win a title.

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1386314

I have had 8 teams with the current format on the SOM site and I have made the playoffs 3 times (including a 1999 team where the playoffs start tonight). Just experiment a little and find a strategy that works for you.

A 3B with 300+ home runs and multiple GG years in real life

Not relevant since the cards are based on a single season. How many career HRs did Maris have? We have his 1961 card so it is a big HR card. A career based card would likely be below average.

(and .844 OPS that year) who had a 6-43 streak (just 7 TB) while fielding .900 playing for me.

Most likely a combination of small sample size and facing allstar level pitching staffs.

I pulled him; even though the games are supposed to be independent, game after game of 0-4 didn't seem like it.

That kind of patience will lead to a lot of struggles in the long run.

A stud pitcher who won almost 30 games that year losing three starts in a row.

Real life wins are almost irrelevant. High or low win total could be more a reflection of quality of team he played on. See Bob Gibson who had double digit shutouts and 1.12 ERA and yet because of the offense somehow managed to lose almost double digits. See King Felix almost any year he has pitched.

but how do I tell what's luck and what's me being terrible at this?

Play more and post links to your teams here. Lots of helpful people who will give opinions. And lots like me who just like hearing themselves talk. Either way you should get lots of opinions on why your teams are struggling and advice on how to improve.

It would be nice to know before proceeding with a paid season. I'm okay trying and failing but I'd rather not waste my time with something I'm nearly guaranteed to lose. How much of an investment (time/money) am I looking at before I improve?

Toughest question you asked. How quick a study are you? How much do you want to figure it out on your own. You can probably have reasonable success just copying one of the better player's teams. But for me there is no fun in that. Cannot speak for you there. As to time and money investment the real question here is how resistant to addiction are you? You talking about the time/money you will spend before getting good and winning consistently? Or you talking about the time/money you will spend on the addiction this thing can be before you can control yourself. For most the problem is not that they cannot figure out how to win but they cannot stop playing once they get hooked.

I also get that someone has to lose, but how do I tell what's luck and what's me being terrible at this? It would be nice to know before proceeding with a paid season. I'm okay trying and failing but I'd rather not waste my time with something I'm nearly guaranteed to lose. How much of an investment (time/money) am I looking at before I improve?

I can tell you how I approached it at the beginning. My first team was a disaster. I spread my salary evenly all around, spent 2+ million for each of my pinch-hitters and lost 90+ games. So, I looked at some of the successful teams in my league that had the same parks. I looked at the players who did well in those parks, bought two teams for those parks, and drafted many of those players. I didn't copy their teams; I just used the same initial player pool.

I then took 10-15 minutes each day to look at other teams and other players doing well in certain parks for future reference. Every day I built up my own "codex" of players to draft in future teams in different parks. I suggest you find the 2-3 parks you find success in and keep to those for the season. My second team made the playoffs, and you shouldn't be surprised to do so as well if you read and scout the cards well.

As to monetary investment, I also suggest you follow how I did it. I was an untenured Assistant Professor my first 6 years of SOM. So, I had neither the time nor money for any more than two teams at a time. However, that allowed me to put extra work in the teams I had, which allowed me to better hone my SOM skills and learn the players. It will also allow you the time to learn to evaluate players without a ratings guide, and you won't waste money on poorly-put-together teams.

Good luck. This is a worthwhile hobby that attracts different people from different backgrounds with different levels of commitment to the game. So, there is no right way to do it, just the best one for you, your needs, and your expectations.