Will ROCKY get off the deck?

Can it be safe to assume that I have Rocky Colavito's worst card after this horrendous start: thru 15 games, 54 ABs .093/.183/.093 6 walks and 7 strikeouts with no extra base hits. I play in Miller Pk. 1-18 bpHR

Will ROCKY get up off the mat and start producing or is the handwriting on the wall and it is time to give up on him? Or is it still too small a sample size. And he hasn't been injured so no way of knowing there.

thanks, mightyQ

I think to soon. I always give the "stars" at least 100 ABs and sometimes up to about game 40 before letting them go, unless I know from an injury.

Here's an example of a manager letting go of someone too soon. In this case, Reggie Smith:

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
21 89 14 17 6 2 4 11 8 11 2 0 .191 .258 .438 .696

Looks grim. However, based on little more than his homerun total (his two bad years have low HRs) and my desperation to fill a hole I had in centerfield, I picked him up. I was just hoping he didn't have one of his two worst years. To my surprise, a later injury reveal showed I had his very best card!

Here is his line with me:

70 270 36 81 18 4 15 45 26 48 8 2 .300 .357 .563 .920

Of course, it's very possible Rocky does have his worst card. Here are some things to look at before pulling the trigger:

1. How many rolls have been off his card versus the pitcher?
2. Every year except his worst, he gets a walk for every five at bats. How is the ratio looking?
3. How has he done with ballpark homeruns and, to a much lesser extent, ballpark singles?
4. How much do you like his potential replacement. Alternatively, how much can you use the dollars for other needs?

You may think I'm suggesting you hold onto Rocky for a while longer. I probably am. However, what makes this game so interesting is the sooner you dump him if he does have his bad card, the better. So, really, there is no right or wrong answer here. Or, at least, the right answer won't be revealed until the season is over!

Thanks for the feedback CrustyCrab53 and coyote303.
In determining if I have Colavito's worst card or not, I was given 4 bullet points, listed above, to consider.
1. How many rolls have been off his card versus the pitcher's card?
Strat does not provide that information in the game recap/play by play. It's a mystery.

2. AB to walk ratio? As of today: 75 At bats and 10 base on balls, so 1 every 8.5 ABs.

3. Ballpark HRs? Strat does not provide that information. This is a mystery, as well.
4. How much do I like his replacement possibilities? that is a good question!

I might sound like I don't appreciate the feedback, but that would not be the case.
Thank you for the advice, just frustrated with the results.
mightyQ

Thanks for the feedback CrustyCrab53 and coyote303.
In determining if I have Colavito's worst card or not, I was given 4 bullet points, listed above, to consider.
1. How many rolls have been off his card versus the pitcher's card?
Strat does not provide that information in the game recap/play by play. It's a mystery.

2. AB to walk ratio? As of today: 75 At bats and 10 base on balls, so 1 every 8.5 ABs.

3. Ballpark HRs? Strat does not provide that information. This is a mystery, as well.
4. How much do I like his replacement possibilities? that is a good question!

I might sound like I don't appreciate the feedback, but that would not be the case.
Thank you for the advice, just frustrated with the results.
mightyQ

You can find info for #1 and #3 on the Sim Misc tab on your Roster page. That tab is on the far right.
I had horrible luck with Rocky on this 60's Franchise team (Check the players no longer on team area, I had his 1962 card but didn't show it through 164 AB).

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1391283

2. AB to walk ratio? As of today: 75 At bats and 10 base on balls, so 1 every 8.5 ABs.

The walks concern me if the majority of them were against left-handed pitching. If so, I'd be inclined to cut Colavito sooner rather than later. (Check his card. He has a lot more walk chances against lefty pitching.) On the other hand, if most of his walks are against right-handers, I might give him a little more time.

Reading mystery cards is part science and part art. Sometimes you can figure it out with 100 percent certainty. Other times, it's an educated guess. You will cut guys you later regret, and you will hang onto some players far too long. Pitchers are the worst to figure out! However, there is nothing more satisfying than turning a team around by keeping the good ones and weeding out the bad.

Thanks for the feedback that I can find some info from the SIM MISC. stat tab on my roster page. It helped out a bit.

Regarding Rocky Colavito, thru 98 ABs: (46 chances on his card and 60 chances on the opposing pitcher card)

Overall stats .163/.255/.204 with only 1 double and 1 HR (both extra base hits were against left handed pitching)
12 walks and 12 Strikeouts (7 walks against left handed pitching in 44 ABs/ 5 walks in 54 ABs against righties)
BPHR chances are 1 HR out of 2 opportunities.

A possible replacement is Rico Carty, but his defense is drastically worse.

Thanks for the feedback that I can find some info from the SIM MISC. stat tab on my roster page. It helped out a bit.

Regarding Rocky Colavito, thru 98 ABs: (46 chances on his card and 60 chances on the opposing pitcher card)

Overall stats .163/.255/.204 with only 1 double and 1 HR (both extra base hits were against left handed pitching)
12 walks and 12 Strikeouts (7 walks against left handed pitching in 44 ABs/ 5 walks in 54 ABs against righties)
BPHR chances are 1 HR out of 2 opportunities.

A possible replacement is Rico Carty, but his defense is drastically worse.

Man, that's a tough call. You would have to think his numbers will take a turn upward. I'd hold onto him just for the sake there have been 15% high chances on pitcher cards. That should even out in his favor.

Thanks for the feedback that I can find some info from the SIM MISC. stat tab on my roster page. It helped out a bit.

Regarding Rocky Colavito, thru 98 ABs: (46 chances on his card and 60 chances on the opposing pitcher card)

Overall stats .163/.255/.204 with only 1 double and 1 HR (both extra base hits were against left handed pitching)
12 walks and 12 Strikeouts (7 walks against left handed pitching in 44 ABs/ 5 walks in 54 ABs against righties)
BPHR chances are 1 HR out of 2 opportunities.

A possible replacement is Rico Carty, but his defense is drastically worse.

Man, that's a tough call. You would have to think his numbers will take a turn upward. I'd hold onto him just for the sake there have been 15% high chances on pitcher cards. That should even out in his favor.

I agree with the hitter/pitcher card ratio. I like to see a ratio closer to 50/50, before I would cut him or if I saw 60 chances on his card and 46 on the pitcher, I would cut him. Right now, I would hold him to about the 40 game point and re-evaluate.

Perhaps against better judgment, I dropped Rocky Colavito and picked up another left fielder, Rico Carty. Here were the numbers on Rocky at the time of the breakup: (perhaps it was too soon to tell definitively, but I just could not take it any longer; all will be revealed at the end of the season)

110 ABs .164/.252/.200 with only 1 double and 1 Homerun and only 4 RBI. (a terrible start or a bad card)

Picked up Rico Carty as a replacement and found out through an injury that I got his worst year: .255/.329/.401 which is his 67' year. His simulated numbers:

159 ABs .226/.289/.340 with 6 doubles and 4 Homeruns and 20 RBI

Wanted to drop him last night but couldn't find a replacement that I liked. But then today, another team dropped Willie Horton who had results with 2 other team and through an injury I determined that his card is either 65'66' or 67'. And with a look at his splits against lefty and righty pitchers, I believe it is his 67' card, with a 4R balance as he was torching righties and terrible against lefties when he was with both teams.

108 ABs .269/.322/.435 with one team
106 ABs .302/.383/.632 with another team

Why he was dropped by these other teams, not sure, but I am considering it a gift as I will take him over Carty.