Charlie....Here's Where this game is Flawed!

Assuming a catcher/pitcher combo with a combined rating of +6, these are the probabilities for those 3 players attempting a steal with a bad lead:
Duffy (1894) 1-16
Ashburn (assuming 1958) 1-14
O'Neill (assuming Tip) 1-15
Unlikely to be sure, but hardly the 95% certainty you're saying it is

Just to clarify one small point: the adjustment can never be more +5 before factoring in whether they are held on. With a hold, and a bad lead, the ratings are
Duffy (1894) 1-15
Ashburn (assuming 1958) 1-13
O'Neill (assuming Tip) 1-14

Are we certain this is the way it actually works?

Can you point us (link) to where the explanation is given where it makes this crystal clear?

BTW- if what you are saying is correct then the system is beyond flawed-
the best base runner in the world has only a 75% chance of stealing when held on against the worse Catcher ever?
and against a strong armed catcher then they only make it 50% of the time???

What am I missing here?

Fair question - this is how it works when you are face to face. I wouldn't swear that the same engine that keeps having Oscar Charleston ground out on bunt attempts isn't doing something differently.

Fair question - this is how it works when you are face to face. I wouldn't swear that the same engine that keeps having Oscar Charleston ground out on bunt attempts isn't doing something differently.

Listen, Im not saying you are wrong- just asking how come all of us- who have been playing for a bunch of years don't know the right answer?

and again, looking at BOTH the Wiki and Rules page, I can't find a clear cut answer.

In my face to face league, in the playoffs, I missed on four 1-19 chances over six games. Two for homer chances and two for single chances. Also missed on two 1-17 homer chances in the same six game series.

Steal in face to face is pitcher plus catcher, rounded down to +5 or -5 max. Then subtract two if held. If you don't get a good lead and still want to steal, it is -4 off the back number. Not sure where these rules are online, that is from the copy that came with the card set.


I understand what Nev is getting at but I just thought this was a good spot to show my bad luck getting me bounced out of my face to face playoffs even though I had the #1 seed.

Steve wrote:

The most it can ever be is +5. While I empathize with you, I feel the compelled to defend the game. It's a dice game. I've seen some crazy shit on the crap table over the years too. This game can be frustrating, but I love it. Sometimes I step away for awhile, but I always come back for more.

I couldn't agree more and I too love this game. You can not expect "realistic" results when even real life does not always provide that. Also, these ATG teams are stacked with all-stars and Hall of Fame players, so realistic results would not be realistic. And lastly, when there are literally millions of games being played, of course some weird stuff is going to happen!

Who would have thought Sid Bream could come all the way around and score on Barry Bonds' arm ? But it happened.

Steve wrote:

The most it can ever be is +5. While I empathize with you, I feel the compelled to defend the game. It's a dice game. I've seen some crazy shit on the crap table over the years too. This game can be frustrating, but I love it. Sometimes I step away for awhile, but I always come back for more.

I couldn't agree more and I too love this game. You can not expect "realistic" results when even real life does not always provide that. Also, these ATG teams are stacked with all-stars and Hall of Fame players, so realistic results would not be realistic. And lastly, when there are literally millions of games being played, of course some weird stuff is going to happen!

Who would have thought Sid Bream could come all the way around and score on Barry Bonds' arm ? But it happened.

Radagast, its not a question of 'loving the game'.

I 'LOVE my dog' but that doesn't mean that I let her pee in the house.

Should we or should we not have a clear cut, everyone can read the same thing, explanation on how Stealing calculation is made?
Im still waiting for someone to point me to the online place where we can clearly see how to make the calculation- and in fact weather there is always a 1 in 20 chance that the runner will be caught.

If the baserunner failed to establish a good lead, the offensive manager may reverse his decision and not steal, However, if the manager still prefers a steal attempt, refer to the second rating number in parenthesis, in this example 14. If the 20-die roll is from 1 to 14 the runner is safe. If the roll is 15-20, the runner is out stealing,

When using either rating number, first add together the catcher's throwing arm rating and the pitcher's hold rating (found at the top of the pitcher's card), The total of the two numbers must not exceed the range of -5 to +5. For example, if the catcher's throwing rating was -3 and the pitcher's hold rating was -4, the total of -7 would be reduced to -5 . However, if the runner is "held on" subtract from the prior total the following, an additional -2 when using the first rating and -4 when using the second rating number. THIS NUMBER MAY NOT EXCEED -5. In order to demonstrate the entire calculation assume the following: the runner being held on, assume a catcher's throwing arm rating of -4 and a pitcher's hold rating of -3. If the dice roll total was 8 (two six-sided dice), the baserunner established a good lead and must steal. First total together the catcher' a throwing arm rating (-4) and the pitcher's hold rating (-3). Since (-7) is greater than the maximum deduction , reduce to (-5). Then subtract (-2). His chances for a successful steal would be 1-12 [19 + (-5) + (-2) = 12], If the initial dice roll was 5, the baserunner did not get a good lead. If the offensive manager still wanted to attempt a steal of second, his chances would be 1-5 [14 + (-5) + (-4)=5]. IF THE BASERUNNER IS NOT HELD ON, THE SAFE STEAL RATING (NUMBER IN PARENTHESIS) MAY EXCEED 20, IF A RUNNER IS HELD ON, THE MAXIMUM RANGE IS 1-19,


taken from:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf ... mrules.htm

Steve-

First thanks for posting this!
this is honestly the first time I've seen this huge explanation- and we aren't even certain that it pertains to how its done in the online game-
in fact we know that it can't be at least in the instance of giving the opposing manager the choice of holding the runner on or not.

Im still trying to calculate the runners chances, b/c if I understand correctly then at least in the case provided there is an automatic 2 in 12 chance the runner is out- yeah???

Im still trying to calculate the runners chances, b/c if I understand correctly then at least in the case provided there is an automatic 2 in 12 chance the runner is out- yeah???

I'm not getting that part, please explain? Are you talking about the pickoff?