Charlie....Here's Where this game is Flawed!

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 8150.shtml

August 15, 1982, the Braves vs. the Padres, they're both in pennant races -- tie game, bottom of the 9th, one out, one on -- Joe Pittman pinch runs for Joe Lefebvre. Pittman tries to steal second off pitcher Steve Bedrosian and catcher Matt Sinatro. Other than this time, during the rest of the whole season Pittman has an 80% success rate, Bedrosian has an 84% failure rate, and Sinatro has a 77% failure rate. Those rates are about as extreme as you can get. Pittman is caught stealing.

So it can happen. If something can happen, the bell curve says that sometimes it will happen three out of a random series of five times.

Now, should SOM get rid of the "you always have a 5% chance" rule, even for the mythical worst battery in history and best stealer in history? What would replace it? "If pitcher, catcher, and runner all have the most extreme ratings, don't roll the dice -- steal is automatic"?

http://forum.onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/community/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=637612&sid=89cc527dfbc121ab5d3b82b558a85da7

This is merely a rehash of this exact same topic brought up two months ago. All of the rules are clear as can be, and easily findable and provable if you actually watch your games and your settings. Is there a black box override that throws them out at times? Probably, seems to be anyway, but after all these years don't see any clarity coming on that issue and it does not override the plays the vast majority of the time.

For what it is worth, I do believe you need to have an opportunity to throw out the runners, the very best runners of all time in real baseball got thrown out 20% of the time and they do not attempt a steal every single time. The worst catcher ever was Mike Piazza and he was a failure 84% of the time, and he did not give up stolen bases in every single game,most ever in a season was 155 stolen against him most other seasons rated around 100 and to allow 10-20 bases to be stolen automatically in one game is not realistic?.

The settings in this game have a very real effect if you follow the various combinations and what actually happens. If you want to get to use that 95% success rate more often which a good base stealer would have against a bad pitcher/catcher combo? Then set your stealing on very conservative or conservative, and use steal more for your runner. Anything approaching 80% success is overwhelmingly good for the stealing team. The best team in modern baseball in stealing bases was the 1976 Oakland Athletics with 342 Steal and they had just a 73% success rating. Of course the Oakland Athletics underperformed their Pythagorean win total by 4 only getting 87 when it calculated to 91 and would have been enough to get Oakland in the playoffs over Kansas City. The black box probably got them as well. It is possible to steal nearly as many bases in this game with an even higher success rating than 1976 Oakland so I do not see a problem in this. Bringing up a single game in a statistical dice game is not a valid complaint. Stealing bases is an extremely effective weapon in this game in the right division over the course of a season, and bad catchers are punished in this game in so many ways.

And as for Lombardi safe 20% of the time? Anyone that thinks they got something on me when I have Clemente in RF and is going to send him to show me how silly the rules are I say keep sending him and I'll give you that 20%. To send Lombardi in that situation means you do properly know the value of a run in baseball, that is about as bad a play as there is in this game. Want to see how good Clemente's arm is? Here he is at age 36, now Belanger did go from 1st to third on him, but boy.... http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24410967/leaderboarding-clemente-with-most-right-field-assists-ever-by-far

Here is the complete super advanced supplementary stealing system rules for anyone who is interested.
These are the rules that should be being used in the online game. These came from this link.

http://somonline.wikia.com/wiki/Strat-O-Matic_Baseball_Board_Game_Rules

Warning: This is a bit of a long read so if you have a short attention span move on to the next post.
I have highlighted some portions relevant to this conversation in red. Anything in blue is a comment I added because I thought it relevant and is my comment, not the rules. Hope this helps clarify things for everyone. I was actually a bit surprised reading through the thread there is so much confusion around base stealing calculations, even among long time online managers.

(23.0) Super-Advanced Supplementary Stealing System

For the ultimate in strategy and realism, we recommend the Supplementary Stealing System. In this system, each baserunner is rated for the frequency with which he runs (the ability to get a good lead) and his success rate. He will be working against both the catcher's throwing arm and the pitcher's ability to hold runners close to the base.

(23.1) Ignore the baserunner's letter-grade stealing rating. Instead use the numeric rating found on the Advanced side of the batter's card, after the letter-grade rating. Here is a sample:

*8-10/11,12 (19-14)

The numbers preceding the slash are the range (when the two colored dice are rolled) indicating when the runner will establish his good lead. The numbers immediately after the slash are the range indicating when the runner will be automatically out stealing. Better base stealers have no automatic outs; you will see a hyphen (-) instead of a number range.

(23.11) Players who steal often have an asterisk (*) in front of their good-lead range. The asterisk indicates that if the defensive manager does not elect to hold the runner, the runner automatically achieves his good lead. If a runner does not have an asterisk, or if he has an asterisk but is held on base, he must roll the two colored dice to determine whether he achieves his good lead.

(23.12) Most pitchers and some batters have no number rating for stealing. If these players attempt a steal, they begin with a success chance of 0. After all adjustments (for hold, etc.), their minimum success is 1.

Some pitchers have Supplementary Stealing ratings. These pitchers will be listed separately on the roster sheet.

(23.13) The two numbers in parentheses indicate the runner's stealing success ratings (on a roll of the 20-sided die), the first when he has his good lead, the second when he does not.

(23.2) If the runner attempts to achieve his good lead and succeeds, he must attempt to steal immediately. So you will want to calculate his success chance first.

Here is a typical sequence for determining whether to steal and how to do it:
(23.3) Stealing Second Base

A. Combine the catcher's arm (which will range from -4 to +5) (Ivan Rodriguez is the exception. Yes, he was that good) and the pitcher's hold rating (which will range from -6 to +9). This sum may not exceed the range of -5 to +5.

Example: Catcher's arm is -1, pitcher's hold is -5. Instead of a combined -6, the adjustment is -5.
Catcher arm is +5 and pitcher hold rating is +9. The adjustment is +5

Adjust the runner's success ratings accordingly. Example: Instead of (19-14) above, this runner is now 14-9 after a -5 catcher/pitcher adjustment.

B. The defensive manager decides whether to hold the runner on base. If so, there is further adjustment: -2 from the first steal success rating and -4 from the second steal success rating.

Example: Instead of 14-9, this runner is now 12-5.

Note that the effect of holding the runner is applied after calculating the catcher/pitcher adjustment, so the total effect can exceed -5.

C. The offensive manager decides whether to attempt a steal. If so, then first check to determine if the runner achieves his good lead.

1. If the runner has an asterisk (*) rating and the runner is not being held on base, then the runner automatically has his good lead.

2. If the runner does not have an asterisk (*) or he has an asterisk and is being held on base, then roll the two colored dice and check the runner's number range(s). If the roll falls within the range of the first set of numbers (before the slash), the runner achieves his good lead. If the roll falls within the range of the second set of numbers (after the slash), the runner is automatically out stealing. If the roll does not fall within either range, the runner has failed to achieve his good lead.

D. If the runner rolls for his good lead and achieves it, he must steal immediately. If the runner fails to achieve a good lead, he has the option of stealing at any time, or of holding his base. Anyone who has watched a baseball game recognizes the runner attempting to steal always tries for a good lead but for a variety of reasons does or does not get that good lead. Whether that is a feel thing, one foot on the "carpet" or whatever factor. This system is merely trying to simulate that. Sometimes even the best of baserunners against the worst of pitchers or catchers is not able to get that good lead. This is part of the reason every runner does not steal a base every time they get on against John Lester even though he has not attempted a throw to first since 2013.

The baserunner may make only one attempt for a good lead while he occupies the same base, unless:

1. If a runner being held on base attempts and fails to achieve a good lead, he may try for the good lead once more if the defensive manager later decides to cease holding the runner on base.

2. If the defensive manager changes to a pitcher with a worse hold rating or a catcher with a worse arm, a runner who has previously attempted and failed to achieve a good lead may try for the good lead once more.

E. If a steal is attempted, use the runner's adjusted first success rating if he has his good lead, and his adjusted second success rating if he fails to achieve his good lead.

If the runner is not being held on base, his adjusted success rating may exceed 20, in which case he is automatically safe. If he is held on, then his success rate may not exceed 19. His success rate may not be lower than 1. This is why HAL will always hold an * rated runner.

Roll the 20-sided die to determine whether the runner is safe or out.

(23.31) On a successful steal with a dice roll of 1, 2, or 3, there is a possible throwing error by the catcher. Roll the 20-sided die again. Refer to the catcher's card for his "T" number(s). If the second roll is within the "T" range, the catcher has committed a throwing error, allowing all baserunners to advance one additional base. If the second roll was outside the catcher's "T" range, no error occurs.

If the defensive manager decides that the risk of the throwing error is greater than the value of attempting to throw the runner out, the catcher may elect to hold the ball rather than attempt the throw. This decision is made after the offensive manager has announced his intention to steal and before the 20-sided die in rolled to determine safe/out. If the catcher elects to hold the ball, the runner(s) safely steals the base and there is no possibility of a throwing error.

(23.4) Stealing Third Base

(23.41) To steal third, the runner will be using his adjusted second steal-success rating. So if he is being held on base, deduct 4 from his rating as well as the catcher/pitcher effect. Example: The (19-14) stealer above held on base by a pitcher with a +1 hold and a catcher with a -2 arm, would have a success range of 9 (14 -4 +1 -2 = 9)

Ignore the runner's asterisk on attempted steals of third base and home. He must roll within the range of his good lead in order to attempt these steals. If he fails to achieve his good lead, he may not attempt to steal. If the roll falls within the range for his automatic outs, then he is out stealing.

Otherwise, follow the instructions above for stealing second base.

(23.5) Stealing Home

(23.51) To steal home, the runner will be using his adjusted second steal-success rating. But there is no adjustment for the catcher/pitcher effect. Instead, deduct 9 from his second steal-success rating. And if he is being held on base, deduct an additional 4.

Example: The (19-14) stealer above will have a success range of 1-5 if stealing home while not being held, and a success range of 1 if being held.

Ignore the runner's asterisk on attempted steals of third base and home. He must roll within the range of his good lead in order to attempt these steals. If he fails to achieve his good lead, he may not attempt to steal. If the roll falls within the range for his automatic outs, then he is out stealing.
(23.6) Double/Triple Steals

In double or triple steals, only the lead runner's ratings will be used. The defense may attempt to throw out the lead runner only. The trail runner(s) automatically advance one base.

(23.7) Forced Steals on the Hit and Run This could be a factor with what would otherwise be a sure thing baserunner getting caught stealing. He failed to get a good lead and then the hit and run was put on resulting in a forced steal attempt using the bad jump calculations.

If the lead runner has not yet rolled for the good lead when a Hit and Run result requires the runner(s) to steal, then do so and proceed normally, making all necessary adjustments. If the runner has previously failed to achieve the good lead and the Hit and Run subsequently requires a steal, then proceed as you would for a runner who does not have a good lead.

If the lead baserunner is on second base and he fails (or has already failed) to obtain a good lead, he is automatically out trying to steal third base.

(23.8) Holding runners on base

(23.81) A runner may be held on base when the infield is playing Back. Additionally in Super Advanced Play, any runner may be held when the infield is playing the Corners In.

(23.82) Depending on the runner's base, he is held on by different fielders. Consult the RUNNER BEING HELD CHART on Page 15 to determine who has responsibility for holding the runner (the fielder covering the runner's current base and, if the potential steal is at second base, the infielder who would be taking the throw from the catcher).

(NOTE: Use the Runner Being Held Chart to determine the infielders responsible for holding runners, which supercedes the table titled, "Super Advanced Holding Runner Chart" on the Super Advanced Fielding Chart.)

(23.83) When an infielder is responsible for holding a runner and a gb()X is hit to him, add 1 to that fielder's range rating. Example: With a runner held at first and a lefthanded hitter at the plate, a shortstop rated 2e20 becomes 3e20. The maximum range rating is 5.

(23.84) Do not award a SINGLE** on a "gb()+" while runners are being held on base. Instead, when a gb()X to an infielder responsible for holding the runner results in a symbol followed by a "#", change that result to "SI2" (single, with all runners advancing two bases).

(23.85) When a runner is held on first or second, subtract 1 from his running rating when that rating is needed to determine whether he can advance an extra base on another player's hit. If the baserunner is not being held, add 1 to his running rating.

(23.9) Delayed steal of home Would hope this would only happen with very aggressive steal settings.

(23.91) With runners at first and third base, the offensive manager may attempt a "delayed steal" of home (this may not be attempted if either runner has previously rolled for a good lead). Use this procedure:

A. Do not roll for the lead. Instead, calculate the safe range for the runner at first by using his second steal rating number in parentheses and plus/minus the catcher's arm (do not adjust for the pitcher's hold rating or for the fact that the runner is being held on base).

B. If the runner on first attempts to steal, the defensive manager chooses whether to have the catcher hold onto the ball (this permits the steal of second, but prevents the runner on third from attempting to score), or to throw to second in an attempt to throw out the runner.

C. If the defensive manager chooses to throw to second, the offensive manager has the option of having the runner on third attempt to steal home. Calculate the safe chance by subtracting 5 from his second steal rating number in parentheses (do not adjust for the pitcher's hold rating, the catcher's arm or the fact that he is held on base).

D. If the runner on third attempts to steal home, the defensive manager has the choice: Let the throw go through to try to get the runner attempting to steal second, or cut off the ball and throw home.

E. After all choices are made, roll the 20-sided die to determine the result.

F. With two outs, if the defense throws out the runner going to second base, the runner on third does not score.

(24.0) Pickoffs and balks (optional)

If you are using the optional system for individual balks, wild pitches and passed balls, pickoffs and balks are possible when using the Supplementary Stealing System.

A more complete description of the balk-wild pitch-passed ball system is in Section 29. We include the pickoff/balk play here for your convenience:

(24.1) When rolling for a lead, also roll the 20-sided die along with the two colored dice.

A. If the 20-sided die roll is 3-20, discard the 20-sided die and continue normally with the Supplementary Stealing System. (If a steal is attempted, you will need to roll the 20-sided die again.)

B. If the 20-sided roll is 1, the runner attempting the lead may be picked off. Refer to the runner's second steal success rating (in parentheses) and roll the 20-sided again. If the number rolled is less than or equal to the runner's rating, the runner dives back safely, but has failed to achieve his good lead.

If the number rolled is higher than the runner's rating, the runner has been picked off (statistically, this does not count as a time caught stealing).

C. If the 20-sided roll is 2, there is a possible balk. Refer to the pitcher's balk rating (at the top of the Advanced side of his card) and roll the 20-sided die again. If the number rolled is less than or equal to the balk rating, a balk has occurred and all baserunners advance one base. If the number rolled is higher than the balk rating, the runner dives back safely, but the runner has failed to achieve his good lead.

Here's a play I see in netplay quite often, and I think it's the biggest sucker play in the game. Here is Corey Hart's 2014 steal rating:
2/- (20-6)

Guys will try for the lead hoping for the 1 in 36 that they get the good lead. but 5% of the time you get the possible pick off roll, which means you roll the 20 sider again and if it fall outside of the 2nd steal number (in this case 6) then the runner is picked off. so you have a 5% chance at a 70% pickoff.
The way I figure it you get picked off 3.5 percent of the time and get the good lead 2.77 percent of the time. I don't know why anyone would even try this, but like I say I see it almost every day.

I have always thought that the dice rolls were manipulated in this game. Wacky SB results, Bonds HR production, home field advantage, late inning rallies/collapses, there is all kinds of normalization going on. IMO.

IMO its there to balance the playing field for the less experienced player. They can't have new users get slaughtered every time by the experienced player or they would never stay with the game long enough to learn how it works. They have to have a chance to win or they wouldn't come back. They wouldn't spend money on the game.

Amen Brother ... I have been singing that song for years ... Too much ridiculous stuff happens to be totally random or blind luck!

I have always thought that the dice rolls were manipulated in this game. Wacky SB results, Bonds HR production, home field advantage, late inning rallies/collapses, there is all kinds of normalization going on. IMO.

IMO its there to balance the playing field for the less experienced player. They can't have new users get slaughtered every time by the experienced player or they would never stay with the game long enough to learn how it works. They have to have a chance to win or they wouldn't come back. They wouldn't spend money on the game.

Amen Brother ... I have been singing that song for years ... Too much ridiculous stuff happens to be totally random or blind luck!

I'm singing right along with you guys.

Not saying it's good or bad...and I'm sure most is good for the game...but it's not roll the dice check the cards.

And IF they really wanted us to know how much is "manipulated" (which imo is not their secret sauce) or just plain changed....they would not just show the end result...they would show the process....This game is as transparent as mud.

I too would like to see more of the process behind the curtain. But having been a customer for decades I am confident not going to happen. So we are kind of left with one of those serenity prayer situations, unfortunately.

I came to believe long ago there were many good points about Strat that made it fun. And there were many problems that simply are never going to change. Part of the secret to being happy is accepting that some things are not going to change.

Some will not change because they are paranoid about competitors stealing their process. The code for correcting board game excesses for example. Details of how various ratings are determined is another. Some will not change because they perceive their customers are divided on wanting a feature to change. The autodraft is one example there.

I do think there should be links on the front office screen to pages showing all the details possible and published elsewhere of what rules are and how game engine works. The page I found with a google detailing the super advanced steal process is a good example. There should be a link to that in the help.

FYI ... This team of mine holds the all time team SB record by a wide margin ...

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/sim/817864

With virtually every guy on the team being a AAA max base stealer (20-16 split). They were successful at a 74.8% clip overall. 78.8% stealing 2nd. 68.4% stealing 3rd. And 33.9% stealing home.

And tonight going up against -6 p/c combo MINUS SIX my opponent steals 5 out of 5....Yeah no black box crap here LMAO

Nev and I played last night:

I apparently was able to steal 3/3 bases off of Gibson(-3)/Hartnett(-2)= (-5) and got caught TWICE (both attempts) by Vance(+3)/Hartnett(-2)= (+1):

Including 1 Stolen Base by...JOHN OLERUD, yes JOHN OLERUD stole a base there. Hes stealing is 3 WITH the lead, so MINUS 5 should he be able to steal at all? (BTW- hes 3 for 3 in SB att. this season- REALLY.)


Of course who was caught the next night vs. Vance?

TY COBB.