2nd Baseman Question

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Ninersphan

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Re: 2nd Baseman Question

PostWed Apr 29, 2015 1:46 pm

MARCPELLETIER wrote:
    Code: Select all

    (Among players over 2M)
    Price         Name      Pos   Run Value($)   Diff  Diff in%
                                Created       (absolute)  (relative)
    8 210 000   Yelich,C   7   40,02   $6,60   -1,61 -1,96
    4 460 000   Aybar,E   6   14,80   $3,58   -0,88   -1,98
    8 230 000   Altuve,   4   41,13   $6,50   -1,73   -2,11
    5 910 000   Santana,D 6   23,03   $4,56   -1,35   -2,28
    6 130 000   Zobrist,B 4   24,41   $4,73   -1,40   -2,29
    2 770 000   Stewart   2    4,56   $2,11   -0,66   -2,39
    2 680 000   Gonzalez   4    1,98   $2,04   -0,64   -2,40
    2 820 000   Blanco,A   6    2,43   $2,09   -0,73   -2,58
    2 620 000   Gordon,D   4    0,87   $1,90   -0,72   -2,73


This is from my ratings, all positions pooled, for ballpark values set Great American at home and HR=10/10 on the road. As you see Dee Gordon is the worst buy in this category in terms of percentage, his value being equivalent to 1.90$ instead of 2.62$, but in real values, the worst buy is Altuve, value of 6.50$ instead of his pricetag 8.23M, for a net difference of 1.73M---in my ratings, for GreatAmerican, that's the worst of all the set.

I agree that Dozier will end up in the low .300, perhaps .330 in Great American. But 30 HR, stellar defense, isn't this what you look for a 8th/9th hitter?

Compared to Altuve 41 Runs Created, Dozier has 55.8 RC and Cano 49.3 RC in my ratings, all set for the stadium ratings set as above.


The problem is I won't pay 8mil plus for a #8 or 9 hitter. I'd rather have Altuve who for the same price can hit in the top half of the order. The defense, as always, with the pricing is valued WAY to much IMHO and the skew to LH pitching is not taken into account enough.
Last edited by Ninersphan on Wed Apr 29, 2015 1:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Ninersphan

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Re: 2nd Baseman Question

PostWed Apr 29, 2015 1:47 pm

blue turtle wrote:I have yet to be in a conventional, 12/$80M league where Dozier has ever been on a roster.

Might be my nod to the free market, but that suggests to me that Dozier, more than any of the other 2 2B mentioned, is over-priced.


:D
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MARCPELLETIER

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Re: 2nd Baseman Question

PostWed Apr 29, 2015 2:01 pm

For what is worth only one season, from TC's link

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/le ... 3/2b/ops/1

Stadiums pretty much comparable
Code: Select all
                    offense OPS                 defense OPS             overall OPS
Cano             .745                            -.089                         .656
Altuve            .691                           -.201                         .490
Dozier             .706                          -.034                          .672


And those stats doesn't even factor the doubleplays. Cano has a ton on offense. Dozier has a ton on defense. Sure looks like Dozier was the best buy in that league.

This said, Dozier is NOT a great value, he's not even a good value. Just average for GreatAmerican, very bad for small-ball ballparks.

For great american , Walker is probably the best value among 4M+ second basemen. Kinsley is another all-around great value.
Last edited by MARCPELLETIER on Wed Apr 29, 2015 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ScumbyJr

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Re: 2nd Baseman Question

PostWed Apr 29, 2015 2:21 pm

blue turtle wrote:I have yet to be in a conventional, 12/$80M league where Dozier has ever been on a roster.

Might be my nod to the free market, but that suggests to me that Dozier, more than any of the other 2 2B mentioned, is over-priced.


Same here, the only league I've seen Dozier used is this $100M one.
Dozier -Rogers Centre
Cano and Altuve -Marlins Park
In comparison I have Phillips at Great American for his defense. Dozier's limited offense not worth the extra cost.
I also have Sean Rodriguez to plug in at second.
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/le ... 1/2b/ops/1
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J-Pav

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Re: 2nd Baseman Question

PostWed Apr 29, 2015 3:55 pm

The Strat-O-Matic statistics and values conundrum:

In my first completed league, Kolten Wong had 85% of Altuve's OPS for one-fifth of Altuve's salary. Why should I care if Altuve is overpriced by a buck? Hence, the quandary...recognizing value and winning games do not necessarily coexist peacefully.
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l.strether

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Re: 2nd Baseman Question

PostWed Apr 29, 2015 4:00 pm

J-Pav wrote:recognizing value and winning games do not necessarily coexist peacefully.

Getting on base and winning games don't necessarily coexist peacefully, either. The fact a key factor in usual success doesn't guarantee that success on its own doesn't negate its importance.

So, recognizing value may not guarantee winning games, but it sure helps do so more than not recognizing value.
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MARCPELLETIER

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Re: 2nd Baseman Question

PostWed Apr 29, 2015 5:50 pm

also have Sean Rodriguez to plug in at second.

S.Rodriguez is indeed the best value among second basemen in Great American.

The problem is I won't pay 8mil plus (on Dozier) for a #8 or 9 hitter. I'd rather have Altuve who for the same price can hit in the top half of the order.


BTW, Dozier has more on-base than Altuve vs rhp in Great American: 44 chances vs 43 chances.

Sure Altuve has lots of on-base vs lhp, and it seems to me so easy to find great lead-off vs lhp
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keyzick

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Re: 2nd Baseman Question

PostWed Apr 29, 2015 7:03 pm

No mention of Joe Panik...very good D, can leadoff against Righties and lefties...all for less than $3M
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ScumbyJr

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Re: 2nd Baseman Question

PostWed Apr 29, 2015 7:50 pm

J-Pav wrote:The Strat-O-Matic statistics and values conundrum:

In my first completed league, Kolten Wong had 85% of Altuve's OPS for one-fifth of Altuve's salary. Why should I care if Altuve is overpriced by a buck? Hence, the quandary...recognizing value and winning games do not necessarily coexist peacefully.

The league I cited earlier
Team with Dozier - record 80-52 1st place
Team with Cano - record 80-52 1st place
Team with Altuve- record 64-68 3rd place
Mine with Phillips/SRod 76-56 2nd place -wild card leader
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l.strether

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Re: 2nd Baseman Question

PostWed Apr 29, 2015 8:03 pm

ScumbyJr wrote:
J-Pav wrote:The league I cited earlier
Team with Dozier - record 80-52 1st place
Team with Cano - record 80-52 1st place
Team with Altuve- record 64-68 3rd place
Mine with Phillips/SRod 76-56 2nd place -wild card leader

Scumby, are you actually positing the anecdotal evidence of one league with each individual 2nd baseman as evidence of their respective values? I'm a Humanities guy, and even I know that's far from sufficient statistical/evidentiary support.
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