What am I doing wrong

Below are my most recent 18 seasons over 2 season 2013,2014:

In 18 leagues, only 2 Championships, lost in the finals twice, but here's my question; 6 semi round losses, is there some other SOM dynamic for the playoffs I don't know about that I'm not factoring in?





Take Two 5 2013 $100M CHAMPS GO CUBS!!! 100 Mil 5/10/20 Adv... Chase Field '13 1st 94-68 -
Take Two 6 2013 $80M missed playoffs Winter Boredom Begins PNC Park '13 3rd 78-84 23.0
Last Hurrah 2013 $80M missed playoffs Auto League 425308 AT&T Park '13 3rd 80-82 8.0
Last Hurrah II 2013 $80M lost Finals Auto League 425333 Wrigley Field '13 1st 90-72 -
Last Hurrah III 2013 $80M lost Semi-Finals FALL BALL 2014 Rangers Ballpark '13 1st 93-69 -
Last Hurrah V 2013 $80M missed playoffs Auto League 425410 Tropicana Field '13 2nd 87-75 8.0
Severna Park Slugs 2013 $100M lost Semi-Finals Compete or go home! Great Amer. Bpk '13 1st 87-75 -
Last Time 2013 $80M missed playoffs One last Time? Rangers Ballpark '13 2nd 82-80 6.0
Last Hurrah 2013 $80M lost Semi-Finals Auto League 425585 Comerica Park '13 1st 87-75 -
Severna Park Slugs 2013 $80M CHAMPS Run for the Hills PNC Park '13 2nd 88-74 2.0
What'll you Raise 2013 $80M lost Finals Auto League 425894 Wrigley Field '13 1st 93-69 -
All In 2013 $80M lost Semi-Finals Auto League 426121 PNC Park '13 1st 84-78 -
Jokers Wild 2013 $80M missed playoffs Auto League 426131 Chase Field '13 3rd 78-84 5.0
One Eyed Jacks 2013 $80M lost Semi-Finals Auto League 426148 Rogers Centre '13 2nd 88-74 7.0
Inside Straight 2013 $80M lost Semi-Finals Auto League 426181 Progressive Field '13 2nd 88-74 10.0
Hot Vinassa 2014 $80M missed playoffs Auto League 426250 Comerica Park '14 4th 81-81 12.0
Hot Vinassa 2014 $100M missed playoffs Baseball is back!!! PNC Park '14 2nd 83-79 1.0

Firstly, there's the dynamic of the brief 5 or 7 game series whose result will rarely directly indicate the qualities of the teams or the skills of the managers.

Secondly, you need to show the exact teams from each series so people can discern whether your teams were simply outclassed or not.

Most managers would be happy with your results. Here's the expected average for 18 seasons:

Expected (actual)
Championships 1.5 (2)
Finals Loss 1.5 (2)
Playoff Appearances 6 (10)

Only your ratio of playoff 1st-round exits to final appearances is (slightly) worse than the average, and that can be attributed to normal variance (not to mention once you get to the playoffs, it's pretty much a crap shoot).

Now, I realize by looking at your regular win-loss records that you're better than the average manager. However, playoff success is fickle. For example, I live a blessed life in the 60s winning far more than my share of championships, but I can't buy a championship in the 90s. Yet my regular season win-loss records are similar in both.

You might try more of a "rose-colored glasses" approach: When you win, it's your skill as a manager; when you lose, it's bad luck!

On average...

1/3 of teams make the playoff. 9 of 18 puts you well above that.
Of playoff teams 1/4 will win or 25%. You are at 2/9 which is 22%
I see no problem.

For each individual playoff series regardless of what level on average you should win 1/2. You have won 3/9. So yes below average but lots of explanation possible there including just small sample size. Could be you are better than the average bear so you make playoff at an above average rate but just run in to other way above average managers once in playoff.

Those are just some basic averages. To really have an opinion on what you might or might not be doing wrong you would need to post links to all the teams in question and links to the teams that beat you.

For now though might offer up some broad possibilities. Could be you are playing in an extreme park. I find sometimes such parks can help you win some games in regular season. But an opponent that carries a spot starter or two can often derail unbalanced teams. For example a mostly lefty lineup in a hard leaning lefty park could pay dividends in regular season, especially if divisional opponents do not carry the extra lefty specialist to counter with when in your park. But good playoff teams usually are managed by people who are smart enough to plan for having the ammunition to turn what was a strength in regular season in to a postseason weakness.

Also, note that of your 6 teams losing in semifinals only one won more than90 games. Have to at least consider the possibility those teams were more of a light breeze blowing in to playoffs than a tornado blasting through. Of course it is more fun to believe there is some software slight of hand dooming our teams.

Anyway, post those team links. Should give everyone a distraction waiting for all the new bugs in server to get fixed.

In addition to what has been said I do believe there are some team approaches that can help with playoff success once you get there.

In a 5 game series your ace will pitch twice. If you do not have one.......
In a 7 game series 3 of your pitchers will pitch twice and your 4th only once. So that slot is less important.
But if that 4th slot is manned by appropriate matchup starters who can take advantage of your lineup and park that game 4 can sometimes be penciled in as a loss for you when you do not have home field advantage and game 4 is at your place.

The ace also comes in to play in a 7 game series. If I am the home team and my ace really needs my home park then he goes games 2 and 6. If you have home field advantage and my ace is well suited to your park I can maximize his value by also going games 2 and 6 on the road.

For example you are in a heavy lefty park with a lot of lefty batters. You were the better regular season team. You have home field advantage and best record in league. I was the wild card barely sneaking in. But I happen to have Randy Johnson on my team. So I slot him games 2 and 6 so even though you are home team I have a good chance of stealing those 2 games. After that it is a matter of holding serve in my home park and I win. Consider same scenario in a 5 game series where I can throw him in games 1 and 5 and steal 2 wins. I take that semifinal and you are off starting another "This game is so bogus" thread. How could that 82 win team beat my 100 win team?

To summarize you can build a team for regular season success and you can build a team for postseason success. Sometimes it is pure luck. If I had Randy Johnson as my ace and an opponent in a heavy RH park I might have been the better regular season team but cards are stacked against me for that postseason.

You cannot know when you are building a team preseason what you will encounter in playoffs. So there is an element of luck there as well if you are drawing just the right, or wrong, opponent in the playoffs.

Thanks to everyone for your replies. Specifically, I was wondering if SOM / HAL tweaks something, like the 10% BA home advantage, no extra stuff for the playoffs, e.g., some playoff clutch something on certain players. I started playing SOM in the mid 60's and the rules have changed exponentially since then.

JT

And what ever you do, NEVER EVER EVER go into the playoffs with a 100+ win team, KOD

Answer: Expecting playoff results to make sense.

Most managers would be happy with your results. Here's the expected average for 18 seasons:

Expected (actual)
Championships 1.5 (2)
Finals Loss 1.5 (2)
Playoff Appearances 6 (10)

Only your ratio of playoff 1st-round exits to final appearances is (slightly) worse than the average, and that can be attributed to normal variance (not to mention once you get to the playoffs, it's pretty much a crap shoot).

That is about exactly right. Playoffs is also a lot about match ups(parks), injuries, having your pitching rotation fall into place, having his not fall into place, etc. Also, winning a game by all rights you should have lost or visa versa can really affect a series. I have had tremendously bad playoff streaks over the years. In the end, you just hope the dice bounce your way as much as they go against you.

maybe you are not holding your tongue right........

http://thumbs.dreamstime.com/z/smiley-h ... 087679.jpg