Nolan Arenado Bugged?

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poolman

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Nolan Arenado Bugged?

PostSat May 02, 2015 12:49 am

Unless I am missing something (totally possible) his card has a bug this year. after 15 games he has missed 8, plus the 3 he was injured in and the next 7 to come. its how he was injured that has me calling foul. on each it was a role of 3-10, which should be a gb to the ss on his card. each of the 3 rolls of 3-10 he's had this year was a foul out with injury. 3 roles of 3-10, 3 foul outs (instead of ground balls), 3 injuries. what is going on here? I saw him dropped in another league by someone else who he was constantly injured for. I chalked it up to bad luck and a 3 injury risk. now I see why he was dropped. anybody else have similar experiences?
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milleram

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Re: Nolan Arenado Bugged?

PostSat May 02, 2015 1:11 am

3-10 is a foulout/injury vs RH pitchers---1-4 injury vs LH ---find a 3B with a HR on 3-10 vs RH, you will be set.
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poolman

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Re: Nolan Arenado Bugged?

PostSat May 02, 2015 11:14 am

doh, I knew it was something I was overlooking. will that be an injury every time, or am I just being unlucky on the injury roll?
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Ninersphan

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Re: Nolan Arenado Bugged?

PostSat May 02, 2015 9:05 pm

poolman wrote:doh, I knew it was something I was overlooking. will that be an injury every time, or am I just being unlucky on the injury roll?


At minimum it's a rest of game injury, depends on what the d20 roll is on the injury chart.
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l.strether

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Re: Nolan Arenado Bugged?

PostSat May 02, 2015 9:31 pm

I wouldn't stress too much about a 10/4 injury card. I and many others have won with one or more such cards. I would suggest, though, you get a backup better than .50 card. Jonathan Schoop or--if you're willing to spend more--Wilmer Flores are solid back-up options.
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ClowntimeIsOver

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Re: Nolan Arenado Bugged?

PostSat May 02, 2015 10:17 pm

Ninersphan wrote:At minimum it's a rest of game injury, depends on what the d20 roll is on the injury chart.


Actually, the minimum, which happens 10% of the time, is no injury at all -- the guy stays in the game and you never know about it unless you happen to notice it was an injury roll.
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STEVE F

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Re: Nolan Arenado Bugged?

PostSat May 02, 2015 10:26 pm

With players like Arenado, you almost need to keep a stretcher around full time. ;)
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milleram

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Re: Nolan Arenado Bugged?

PostSun May 03, 2015 4:03 am

A very general way to look at how many times you will hit a specific roll (injury or otherwise) is just multiple the odds x three.

there are 216 possible rolls---216 x 3 = 648

most full time players will have 648 plate appearances, more at the top of lineup, less at the bottom, but 648 is fairly close to the average (probably a little under average)

the odds of rolling 3-10 are 3/216--or 9/648 so 9 times a year you should roll 3-10, but he will miss games, so 9 is too many.

I think the odds are a player with an 3 injury rating should play about 130 games roughly--- he should have about 7 injuries averaging 4.5 games missed per injury.

That said, I seem to have bad luck with 3 injury ratings, but good luck with 4 injury ratings--In 2012 I couldn't keep Kemp in the lineup (3 injury) but with Ortiz (4 injury) I got over 520 plate appearances out of him with several teams.
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coyote303

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Re: Nolan Arenado Bugged?

PostSun May 03, 2015 9:45 am

STEVE F wrote:With players like Arenado, you almost need to keep a stretcher around full time. ;)

Oh no, Steve, you misspelled his name! You know how sensitive he is about that. Oh wait. You really did mean a stretcher. :?

Note: If the person I'm poking fun at is offended by this attempt at humor, I will delete this post with apologies; I mean it only in fun.
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l.strether

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Re: Nolan Arenado Bugged?

PostSun May 03, 2015 11:14 am

Relax, Coyote. I've never seen a grown man get so worked-up in anxious anticipation of reaction to their silliness. I think it's all quite cute.

So, carry on, kid.
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