NLD 38 - Opening Day Season

Don't worry.... Soon I'll be messing up all the good karma this team has right now...I'll be finished my Canadian tax return season by end of day tomorrow. Once I start interfering with Hal's management of the team, he'll kick me in the ass soon enough.

Hal's just messing with you right now!

And just now I was going to write that Geoff always seems to beat the pythag - which may have more to do with skill than with luck. I think Geoff has been way ahead of most of us in pitching management. He is doing it with a low-value staff.

Thanks for the compliment Spider (!), but the truth is I haven't spent any time on this team for several weeks, in terms of in-series management. If there's any secret formula here for the pitching, it's not based on in-series management by me.

This is the second team in a row where I've tried to get the most out of a cheap starting pitcher staff. Maybe the overall mix (together with choice of ballpark, and possibly good outfield arms) is what's working with this strategy.

I have a feeling there have been more than a few die rolls at key times going GB's way. I mean Smyly has a .99 ratio in a 1-17 bpsi park! Shoemaker's ratio is about the same as it was in real life last year pitchign in Angel stadium. I guess everyone has pitchers like that however. In any case, he's second to last in runs allowed and second in scoring. Timing is everything.

In any case, a one run record *that* extreme is tellling you that timing is everything. I really don't think that's something inherent in any team. Played too many years of FTF to believe that.

We will test our luck against the one run juggernaut tonight!

We actually broke out a bit last night. Won a 1-0 game, and got a sweep against Zim (sorry bud). This would be a good time for another 12 game win streak.

I'm actually hanging in there this season.

Well, the Moose got us for a pair of one run wins.

First one 1-7 HR beats us with Shoemaker allowing only 7 runners in 7.1 ip. Earlier in the game Martin hit a HR on a 1. And Morneau hit another 1-7 HR. Nice rollign if you get get 'em. Three run, all on solo shots, none better than a 35% chance.

Second one, he hits another 1-7 HR off of Street to send to extras (antoher BS for our squad) and then Martin (who blows in the clutch) drives in two in the 12th. The winning run gets to second on a balk. Granted hatcher is a 1-14 BUT, it's still only a 1.75% chance of happening. We hit a HR and get a runner on in the bottom, but Coghlan is thrown out going to 3b (with 2 outs) to end the game. A 70% chance of being safe. Oh and we lost Cano in the 3rd ining of a 12 inning game effectively putting an extra 9 innings onto his fifth injury and second 3 gamer.

Nope, no luck for GB, just skill.

Well, we've been up and down. Actually winning a few one runners, but losing them too. Just playing a lot of them. We've played 39!!!! ONE RUN GAMES. Everyone else topping out at 29 and 9 teams are between 26-29.

Crazy. We're sitting -7 and have a 4-10 record in extras.


Had a chance to win the third one run game with Stoney tonight, but check this out:

TOP OF INNING 8
0 C.Gomez 1-10 Single (LF) b-1 F6
0 1 C.Coghlan 3-8 Single (CF) 1-3 b-1 F0
SUBSTITUTION at P: Joe Beimel (role: LH Specialist)
SUBSTITUTION at PH: Wilin Rosario
0 1 3 W.Rosario 3-2 Line Out (SS) TRIPLE PLAY! 3-o 1-o b-0 F9

Man does that SUCK.

Oh well, at least we won the series.

Stats should be coming out soon. I have to update for the moves that were made recently.

I'm looking forward to the stats and predictions. I've been a bit distracted for the last week, but my guys seem to be handing in there. The rolls have definitely gone my way (with a few exceptions) - especially Gray.

One thing that's working the way I tried to build the team is for high fielding DPs and low GIDPs. With a high BPS park, I need that.

The league fielding % is a "tight shot group" around the .986 mar - with only Trenchtown and Naples as outliers.. It will be interesting to see if this holds.

Lost another one runner, but in a unique way. Street and Buchanan combined to give up 8 runs in the 9th including yet another walk off 1-7 HR, A grand slam this time. To make matters worse, it was hit by Almonte who just sucks. There was also a 1-10 BPHR in the inning. <sigh> If he misses either one, we in.

Street has not been all that great. He has 8 BS v 17 Saves and has given up 9 HRs versus 4 last year. And, he's pitching in Pittsburgh.

Yeah, you're getting some breaks MG.

Managed to not blow the third game to at least get a win. Man these one runners are killing me.

I just finished my tax season (it was extended by Canada Revenue Agency to May 5). Feels great to be through all that!

Guys, I'm sorry to be killing things with good luck. Seriously.

Having said that (and not denying it), this league is a fascinating forum to try new things - like having cheap starting pitchers, which is a relatively new thing for me. I continue to try out ideas with speed and outfielders arms.

I'm not making any claims to genius, and I fully expect my luck to run out our reverse at some point soon. But some of the other things that I'm looking at continue to fascinate me.

With tax season, I haven't had any time to analyze anything. If I come up with something worthy of debate, I'll share it with the group. I'm not anywhere near that point yet, at the moment.

I hope I don't drive you guys crazy with my ridiculous luck, in the meantime.

Really like gaming with you guys. Sorry to be so quiet!


Geoff

GB, you're ONLY +16 in one run games and 8 over your pythag. Not sure why you should be apologizing for your luck.

Such is life in a dice game.

We're just glad you haven't play 44% of your games as one run games (like me ) because you'd be +22!!!