- Posts: 274
- Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:00 pm
The problem with farm teams is that the injury rating discounts the cost of the card. I estimate that every higher rating means the card would be worth 1/14 more if it were bullet-proof (presuming less than 600 AB+W for inj-1 guys). So an inj-6 guy who costs $5m is "worth" 7.14m if he were healthy every day. Having a cost-free replacement would make the discount too much (the card too cheap).
An easy formula to remember to approximate how much time a middle-of-the-lineup guy will miss due to injury is this: subtract the injury rating (if less than 600 AB+W) from 23 and multiply the difference by half the injury rating.
That result is how many 9-inning units the guy will miss (on average) if played every day while healthy (I say "units" not "games" to account for remainder-of-game lost innings after injury). The formula gets a bit inaccurate the higher the rating is, and 5 and 6 ratings lead to slightly more missed innings than the formula sugggests. The number also increases for guys in the top half of the lineup, and decreases for the lower half and for platoon and bench players, due to more/fewer PAs (injury chances).
Injury ratings can thus be leveraged -- you can spend more for pitching on a high-injury team if the sum of the parts is greater than the total injury discount. I've had several extremely successful injury-prone teams based on such leveraging in 80m leagues. If the current one wins the finals (I'm in game 6 tonight) I'll post it here. It was my only team in the 2014 set till halfway through the season (I don't play many teams -- maybe six or eight a year), so I'm off to a good start in this set. (On another subject, I SUCKED in W/L in the 2013 set -- just couldn't figure it out.)
Note that if you have only two catchers, one is injury-proof (unless in the same line-up in the same game) if the other gets injured.
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EDIT I should add that the real issue with injuries isn't average games lost, but standard deviation -- the higher the rating, the more likely you'll hit one end of the bell curve with an unlikely number of 10 and 15 game injuries than you would with a low injury guy. The average accounts for the standard deviation, but the latter can be dangerous (or GREAT if you're lucky and get lots of short injuries). So it's like an investment portfolio -- balance risk with reward, knowing that standard deviation is the wild card.
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EDIT
sorry this isn't ATG, but it's about injuries
I wrote above: "I've had several extremely successful injury-prone teams based on such leveraging in 80m leagues. If the current one wins the finals (I'm in game 6 tonight) I'll post it here."
won the finals in 6 on an injury prone team
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1397269
Santana got injured THREE TIMES in the post-season -- and he's only an inj-2! And Lind twice, an inj-4.
An easy formula to remember to approximate how much time a middle-of-the-lineup guy will miss due to injury is this: subtract the injury rating (if less than 600 AB+W) from 23 and multiply the difference by half the injury rating.
That result is how many 9-inning units the guy will miss (on average) if played every day while healthy (I say "units" not "games" to account for remainder-of-game lost innings after injury). The formula gets a bit inaccurate the higher the rating is, and 5 and 6 ratings lead to slightly more missed innings than the formula sugggests. The number also increases for guys in the top half of the lineup, and decreases for the lower half and for platoon and bench players, due to more/fewer PAs (injury chances).
Injury ratings can thus be leveraged -- you can spend more for pitching on a high-injury team if the sum of the parts is greater than the total injury discount. I've had several extremely successful injury-prone teams based on such leveraging in 80m leagues. If the current one wins the finals (I'm in game 6 tonight) I'll post it here. It was my only team in the 2014 set till halfway through the season (I don't play many teams -- maybe six or eight a year), so I'm off to a good start in this set. (On another subject, I SUCKED in W/L in the 2013 set -- just couldn't figure it out.)
Note that if you have only two catchers, one is injury-proof (unless in the same line-up in the same game) if the other gets injured.
----
EDIT I should add that the real issue with injuries isn't average games lost, but standard deviation -- the higher the rating, the more likely you'll hit one end of the bell curve with an unlikely number of 10 and 15 game injuries than you would with a low injury guy. The average accounts for the standard deviation, but the latter can be dangerous (or GREAT if you're lucky and get lots of short injuries). So it's like an investment portfolio -- balance risk with reward, knowing that standard deviation is the wild card.
------------
EDIT
sorry this isn't ATG, but it's about injuries
I wrote above: "I've had several extremely successful injury-prone teams based on such leveraging in 80m leagues. If the current one wins the finals (I'm in game 6 tonight) I'll post it here."
won the finals in 6 on an injury prone team
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1397269
Santana got injured THREE TIMES in the post-season -- and he's only an inj-2! And Lind twice, an inj-4.