NLD 38 - Opening Day Season

Just some preliminary observations (not conclusions) on the Moose's success in close games (I.e. either XI or within 2 runs) so far this year:

The record in close games continues to click in around a .667 winning percentage. This has been fairly consistent throughout the season so far this year. Just as data points, it was 20-8 through the first 50 games, and it was 14-7 in the last 40 games (random break point - where the page break occurred). I'm not saying that I have a theory for this, it's just an observation.

Breakdown -
Extra innings - record in 1 run XI games - 7-0.
Extra innings - record in 2 run XI games - 0-2.
Extra innings - record in multi-run XI games - 1-0.
Total XI record 8-2
Non-XI one run games - 14-6
Non-XI two run games - 12-7

I'm going to analyze these game results into descriptive categories, both in terms of Moose wins or Moose losses. One of the categories will be "against likely odds, no further explanation", and one will be "odds were indeterminate or very close". Other categories will include "pitcher fatigue"; "pitcher/fielding advantage", "batter advantage", "baserunning/arms advantage".

With respect to XI decisions, I will only be analyzing the factors as they relate to the play in the extra innings. With respect to 9 inning games, I will analyze the factors for the first 9 innings. I'll try to make the calculations as thorough and detailed as possible. I'll summarize and publish my calculations for each game. All of this will take a fair amount of time - a few weeks of calendar time. I'll include the "close games" as they are played over the next few weeks.

At this point, I have no idea what this will reveal - if anything at all. One possible result is simply that I've been darn lucky (no news there). Whatever I calculate, I will try to be as objective as possible. I think it will be interesting!

I'll keep my posts like this to a minimum, to avoid clogging up all the good kibitzing!

Geoff

GB, you're ONLY +16 in one run games and 8 over your pythag. Not sure why you should be apologizing for your luck.

Such is life in a dice game.

We're just glad you haven't play 44% of your games as one run games (like me ) because you'd be +22!!!

This is what my brother Trevor used to do when we played strat over the board together, for hours at a time:



Me:

Just some preliminary observations (not conclusions) on the Moose's success in close games (I.e. either XI or within 2 runs) so far this year:

The record in close games continues to click in around a .667 winning percentage. This has been fairly consistent throughout the season so far this year. Just as data points, it was 20-8 through the first 50 games, and it was 14-7 in the last 40 games (random break point - where the page break occurred). I'm not saying that I have a theory for this, it's just an observation.

Breakdown -
Extra innings - record in 1 run XI games - 7-0.
Extra innings - record in 2 run XI games - 0-2.
Extra innings - record in multi-run XI games - 1-0.
Total XI record 8-2
Non-XI one run games - 14-6
Non-XI two run games - 12-7

I'm going to analyze these game results into descriptive categories, both in terms of Moose wins or Moose losses. One of the categories will be "against likely odds, no further explanation", and one will be "odds were indeterminate or very close". Other categories will include "pitcher fatigue"; "pitcher/fielding advantage", "batter advantage", "baserunning/arms advantage".

With respect to XI decisions, I will only be analyzing the factors as they relate to the play in the extra innings. With respect to 9 inning games, I will analyze the factors for the first 9 innings. I'll try to make the calculations as thorough and detailed as possible. I'll summarize and publish my calculations for each game. All of this will take a fair amount of time - a few weeks of calendar time. I'll include the "close games" as they are played over the next few weeks.

At this point, I have no idea what this will reveal - if anything at all. One possible result is simply that I've been darn lucky (no news there). Whatever I calculate, I will try to be as objective as possible. I think it will be interesting!

I'll keep my posts like this to a minimum, to avoid clogging up all the good kibitzing!

Geoff

GB, interesting, but, for the record, you're playing .785 ball in one run games, not .667!

Just some preliminary observations (not conclusions) on the Moose's success in close games (I.e. either XI or within 2 runs) so far this year:

The record in close games continues to click in around a .667 winning percentage. This has been fairly consistent throughout the season so far this year. Just as data points, it was 20-8 through the first 50 games, and it was 14-7 in the last 40 games (random break point - where the page break occurred). I'm not saying that I have a theory for this, it's just an observation.

Breakdown -
Extra innings - record in 1 run XI games - 7-0.
Extra innings - record in 2 run XI games - 0-2.
Extra innings - record in multi-run XI games - 1-0.
Total XI record 8-2
Non-XI one run games - 14-6
Non-XI two run games - 12-7

I'm going to analyze these game results into descriptive categories, both in terms of Moose wins or Moose losses. One of the categories will be "against likely odds, no further explanation", and one will be "odds were indeterminate or very close". Other categories will include "pitcher fatigue"; "pitcher/fielding advantage", "batter advantage", "baserunning/arms advantage".

With respect to XI decisions, I will only be analyzing the factors as they relate to the play in the extra innings. With respect to 9 inning games, I will analyze the factors for the first 9 innings. I'll try to make the calculations as thorough and detailed as possible. I'll summarize and publish my calculations for each game. All of this will take a fair amount of time - a few weeks of calendar time. I'll include the "close games" as they are played over the next few weeks.

At this point, I have no idea what this will reveal - if anything at all. One possible result is simply that I've been darn lucky (no news there). Whatever I calculate, I will try to be as objective as possible. I think it will be interesting!

I'll keep my posts like this to a minimum, to avoid clogging up all the good kibitzing!

Geoff

GB, interesting, but, for the record, you're playing .785 ball in one run games, not .667!

You're right - when I typed that, I was thinking of the non-extra innings 1 run and 2 run games - approximately. My luck is extra stinking good when it comes to the extra innings games so far.

I did the stats last night, but didn't have a chance to post today. As you might guess based on the one run records, there are some big anomalies.

I'll see if I can get to it tomorrow.

Ok, here are the ratings. This was as of a couple nights ago.

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Team...   O...   P...   F..   P+F.   Ovrl   Div
BigAlrc   6896   4442   -11   4431   2465   C
JoeTJet   7473   4655   452   5107   2365   E
Stoney.   7625   4864   418   5282   2342   W
MG.....   7441   4423   754   5177   2264   C
Spider.   7306   4838   233   5071   2235   W
Zim....   7148   4362   582   4944   2204   C
SemperG   7280   4536   558   5094   2187   W
Smokey.   7574   4930   541   5471   2103   E
nythawk   7208   4713   484   5198   2010   C
Gbrooke   7522   5179   508   5687   1835   W
ArrylTr   7653   5378   640   6018   1635   E
Dale...   6989   4996   397   5393   1596   E


Ratings would say that the Central should be a battle between Big A, MG and Zim. Big A is so onesided on D that it skews the ratings. D is always the biggest variable in game. Timing is everything with it.

The East should belong to JTJ. The West really between Stones and Spider with Semper a dark horse.

You would expect the WC to not come from the East.

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Divi   Offn   Ptch   Fld   P+F   Overall
East   7422   4990   507   5307   1925
Cent   7173   4485   452   4938   2236
West   7433   4854   429   5283   2150


Central would, apparently be the best division, but no offense. Very onesided teams. East is the weakest division by the ratings primarily because the pitching/fielding (mostly the fielding) is the weakest.

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Team Ov   Ovrl   Rtg   Rec   Dif   
BigAlrc   2465   1   5   -4   C
JoeTJet   2365   2   6   -4   E
Stoney.   2342   2   6   -4   W
MG.....   2264   3   3   0   C
Spider.   2235   3   5   -2   W
Zim....   2204   4   5   -1   C
SemperG   2187   4   7   -3   W
Smokey.   2103   5   4   1   E
nythawk   2010   6   9   -3   C
Gbrooke   1835   8   2   6   W
ArrylTr   1635   10   5   5   E
Dale...   1596   10   9   1   E


As you can see, the ratings are not very close with the top 3 ratings middle of the pack instead of at the top. Big A I understand because of the D skew. JTJ because of the one run record is also a reason. Not sure I get Stones' problem. He hasn't been great on the road, but I figured he'd be better at home. My main thought is that his OB has lead to more solo shots than what might be expected. I haven't done the luck analysis yet.

At the other end of the spectrum, we've well documented GB's luck factor so that's obvious. AT is +6 in one runners and his pythag of four under .500 is closer to what the ratings expect. In addition, the ratings don't reflect matchup pens very well so I always expect AT to be somewhat better in pitching than the ratings say. He's also been outstanding at home. I haven't run the park-by-park ratings yet. Oh, one other factor, he has some injury risks and I think his bench is better than average so the ratings will under rate a team like that.

Most of the guys in between are pretty close and Dale, especially after all the moves, is definitely at the bottom. Semp and Hawk probably have some room to bellyache about their squads. Hawk is much better v LHP so to be 9-21 v LHP is very surprising. Of course, these ratings were after his moves so he may not have been that good prior to the moves.

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Team Of   O   Rtg   Run   Dif   
ArrylTr   7653   2   8   -6   E
Stoney.   7625   2   6   -4   W
Smokey.   7574   3   4   -1   E
Gbrooke   7522   4   5   -1   W
JoeTJet   7473   5   5   0   E
MG.....   7441   5   3   2   C
Spider.   7306   7   7   0   W
SemperG   7280   7   9   -2   W
nythawk   7208   8   10   -2   C
Zim....   7148   9   7   2   C
Dale...   6989   11   10   1   E
BigAlrc   6896   12   7   5   C


Interesting here that AT, despite his overperforming his rating and being in the weakest D division is trailign so much in terms of offense. Stones I already sort of addressed. Big A is surprisingly more offensive than expected. Everyone else is almost dead-on.

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Team PF   P+F   Rtg   Run   Dif   
BigAlrc   4431   1   4   -3   C
Zim....   4944   4   5   -1   C
Spider.   5071   5   4   1   W
SemperG   5094   5   8   -3   W
JoeTJet   5107   5   5   0   E
MG.....   5177   6   3   3   C
nythawk   5198   6   8   -2   C
Stoney.   5282   7   10   -3   W
Dale...   5393   8   5   3   E
Smokey.   5471   9   6   3   E
Gbrooke   5687   11   7   4   W
ArrylTr   6018   12   6   6   E


Pitching is pretty close with the exception of GB and AT being much better than expected. Both have "bargain" pitchers and AT has the worst D in the league. (Both spent the least in the league on pitching) You're always goign to over perform if you get cheap pitchers to be better than their cards would leave you to believe.

All for now.

Comments????

The lower rated pitching/fielding teams appear to be the ones outperforming, while the higher rated teams generally are the underperformers. Do you think this is related to the heavy weighting of pitcher friendly parks - giving lower rated staffs a chance to outperform their ratings and the converse for higher rated staffs?

Thanks for putting in the hours for these ratings. It's one of the treats of competing in this league.

The lower rated pitching/fielding teams appear to be the ones outperforming, while the higher rated teams generally are the underperformers. Do you think this is related to the heavy weighting of pitcher friendly parks - giving lower rated staffs a chance to outperform their ratings and the converse for higher rated staffs?

Thanks for putting in the hours for these ratings. It's one of the treats of competing in this league.

That's possible, but I think a better reason for the over performs is the one run records and just their pitching in general shouldn't be this good.

As I have said, D dependent ratings (for the good or bad) tend to have more variation (for reasons I've discussed in the past, but I can again if you want). So, that helps explain Big A and AT. I'll know more about that when I do the luck factors, but not totally. Stoney is the only one where I don't have a great explanation.

My one run record has clearly been a drag on my record. Look at the pythag.

Lost ANOTHER one run game tonight. <sigh> This S*** is getting old.

Lost another 1-runner last night - to Geoff - SURPRISE! Geoff is now up 20 in that category.

Except for Semper and BiA, records fall nicely close to the Pythag adjusted for half of the 1-run difference.

Lost another 1-runner last night - to Geoff - SURPRISE! Geoff is now up 20 in that category.

Except for Semper and BiA, records fall nicely close to the Pythag adjusted for half of the 1-run difference.

And I'm down 10 after last night. Man this team is a bunch of chokers. Left 19 on in the last two games that I lost.