Another normalization story

One team enters series with a pitiful .360 winning percentage. So hapless they had not won a series all year or even won 2 consecutive games all season. Other team came in having won 72% of their games and on a 10 game winning streak. What happens? 36% team sweeps the 72% team 3 straight games. Guess I am a believer now.

I have never seen normalization start after game 75, that is a bit earlier for this to be occurring

I assume this is a reference to the Rangers sweep of the Astros.

Bingo.
And that is why they call you Mr Baseball World. Nothing gets by you.

When hope is dim there is nothing better than sweeping the first place team. When moral victories are all you have gotta grab em and run. Actually if we could just get the Angels or a couple other teams to give us a few more players, pay their salaries, and ask nothing in return Rangers might use this sweep to turn this season around.

Don't know if anyone else watched those games but I had to go take some Tylenol after watching Springer run in to that wall. Ouch. Seems like that guy has dome something special on defense every time I have watched him this year. Reminds me of Josh when he was at his best. His guts remind me of Rusty Greer and ability to go up and rob HRs reminds me of Hunter in his prime. Hoping that concussion does not linger.

In my experience, it starts after game 100. I have not determined the exact parameters. It can go either way, good to bad, bad to good.

Teams that are 20 over at game 100 end up 500. I guess it is possible.

sschu

Baseball has a great history of "normalization", one of my favorites is the 1973 Mets 13 games under .500 at game 101 and then winning the division and beating the 99 win Reds in the play-offs . They took Oakland to a game 7 before they turned back into a pumpkin. There are so many normalization stories in baseball history , with that being said I have to question all the crying that goes on when a "GREAT"team fails to win 120 games. I think our game does reflect the ups and downs that takes place during a season. I am glad to see that Valen pointed this out with this early season "normalization" . Bill

Bill,


Here's my question to any talk of "normalization" here when compared to real life...Real life is prone to streaks of good and bad BECAUSE so much of real life is played out with emotions, ebbs and flo of confidence and most importantly never knowing if you're say an Andre Dawson whether your the 5R or the 5L Andre Dawson.....Aren't the cards void of all these unknowns that would lead to crazy streaks, since we know.. which Dawson we're getting....and putting him in the right park..and doing what we can to maximize his clearly stated and understood probabilities....I mean there is not any black cat running onto the field to perhaps jinx the Cubbies right?

Real life managers play the game with all the information they have available , weather a player hits lefties or righties better, where a hitter is more apt to hit a ball and how high to allow the grass to grow depending on who they are playing. Even the great Casey platooned players based on their l/r abilities. When we start a season we are all 0-0 and have spent the same amount of money, we tailor our teams to our ballparks and make decisions from all we have learned from the countless leagues we have played in. Some managers are stronger than others but the truth is that almost every team will win and lose 60 games its the other 32 games that decide the outcome of the season and when the losing teams look back on any given season they can evaluate what went wrong , sometimes its bad luck just like in real life , but most times its bad matchups depending on how we build are team. Gabe Paul once said "your never as good as you are when your winning and never as bad as you are when your losing " [ real life normalization] Bill

I think way too often people think they have such a better team than anyone else they should win 90% of the time.
True, there are no emotions in strat. But there can be simple statistical anomolies. Sometimes that works against you and sometimes for you. It is just my observation that most of the time when luck is on our side we interpret that as just our great skill. When luck is against us it must be some sinister normalization plot. When my team struggles and I make adjustments whether it be settings or players and it turns around I am a great manager. When the other guy does the same thing it must be in the software coding to keep me from winning too much.

Maybe another way to look at it. There have been roughly 150 seasons of MLB. During that time we think we have seen it all and yet every season something new happens and I think now finally I have seen it all. I think that until the next season when something else new happens. In stratland we have not just played a century and a half of seasons, we have played several millenia worth. I am not surprised when something strange happens. I would be more surprised if nothing strange ever happened given the volume of seasons we get simulated.