NLD 38 - Opening Day Season

GB, I'll have to give your post a good thought, but I'm pretty sure I've checked all of these angles before and found too many anomalies for it to be true. Remember, this is a random game. WHEN you score runs is a function of luck. You can argue that how many base runners you get isn't *as* random (although we know that is too) but how they get strung together and when they get strung together is random and lucky. There are no actual players here who are "clutch" (clutch hits notwithstanding) and "rise to the occasion." That just isn't the case. My record is a case in point how can you have such a good +/- ratio but lose all the one run games? Just doesn't make sense.

As I said, I'll read it more carefully as I don't have time tonight to do so.

Speaking of one run games, I played three more tonight (losing 2 of course). 42% of my games have been decided by one run and we're -13. GB you are +22 That's just crazy lucky and unlucky.

Spider I have to think about what you're saying. I have also feared that we are double counting on one runs and pythags, but I'm not sure we are and I'm not sure what you have proposed would be the answer if we are. Again, I will have to give it some thought.

GB, I'll have to give your post a good thought, but I'm pretty sure I've checked all of these angles before and found too many anomalies for it to be true. Remember, this is a random game. WHEN you score runs is a function of luck. You can argue that how many base runners you get isn't *as* random (although we know that is too) but how they get strung together and when they get strung together is random and lucky. There are no actual players here who are "clutch" (clutch hits notwithstanding) and "rise to the occasion." That just isn't the case. My record is a case in point how can you have such a good +/- ratio but lose all the one run games? Just doesn't make sense.

As I said, I'll read it more carefully as I don't have time tonight to do so.

Speaking of one run games, I played three more tonight (losing 2 of course). 42% of my games have been decided by one run and we're -13. GB you are +22 That's just crazy lucky and unlucky.

Spider I have to think about what you're saying. I have also feared that we are double counting on one runs and pythags, but I'm not sure we are and I'm not sure what you have proposed would be the answer if we are. Again, I will have to give it some thought.

Joe, even if any of my theories are right, there is no doubt that there is a lot of luck involved - that I have benefited from!

GB, I hear ya. I will look at what you posted. What I've seen so far *is* interesting so I will comment on it.

We played 2 more one run games (pushing 45% now) and won one! And we won by two In 19 innings and scored in the top of the 9th to send to extras. Triple amazing for this squad! A walk, a PB and a two out single by Schafer (who isn't exactly awesome in the clutch) sends to extras. Then nine innings of no scores before we score a pair.

In the one run win, Tillman (!) duels with Kershaw and gets the win! Well 3 IP from Street helped just a little. Tolleson hits a 1-6 HR to match Van Slyke's 1-8 HR for the game winner.

After ripping 17 homers in his first 77 games, Longoria has not homered since. (Almost 50 games) Is the power sapping code back or what? :p

After ripping 17 homers in his first 77 games, Longoria has not homered since. (Almost 50 games) Is the power sapping code back or what? :p

Wow, that's amazing, almost as amazing as our ability to lose one runs games. Lost two more tonight.

First one, scored 2 in the top of the 9th to take the lead only to give up two in the bottom to lose.
Second one, 1-7 HR ties the game in the 8th and a 1-4 HR loses it for us in the 11th. Friggin' brutal way to lose both games.

I keep waiting for this nightmare to end, but it just keeps going and going. Inexplicable. Anyone ever play 43% of their games as one run games? We're minus 14 which is hard enough to do, but this many one runners is just crazy. We've played 54 one run games, Semper has 50 (he's -12 ) and the next closest is Big A who has 43.

Of course, we helped our pythag tonight because we won the one game by 4. This really sucks.

Joe, these 1-run games are tense. Against your team last night, in game one, the three-straight doubles against Sipp (who has usually been golden) were a big deflator. Then came the comeback by my guys with 4 of 5 rolls off your pitcher's cards! HAL was definitely kind to In The Gap.

Your number of 1-run games is amazing.

I hear ya Spider and, I have to say, in some of these one run games, I get some breaks to make them one run games, I just can't get the *one* break to win! Ugh.

Will MG's first season turn into a Triumph?


Sorry.

Nah... The rolls went my the first 100 games or so of the season...

I predict just under .500 the rest of the way, and missing the wild card by a game or 3.

Clearly the timing of the events matter more than the quality of the events. Its like hold'em. You can put your team in the mathematical "cat bird seat" (favorably rated) but without love from the dice you would be amazed how little that can matter. I'm sure we have all had the kind of team that loses two close ones and then produces three games worth of O in a game 3 win.

So, I agree with Joe. The timing is all luck. There is no magic sauce to beat the dice. IMO, Joe's one run results and Geoff's for that matter are simply anomalies, right? Bad dice.


Longo went yard!

First 77 games 17 next 50 games 1