5 man rotation

I have used a mixed 5 man with 2 SP*. I set my rotation to include the SP* guys in the first 2 slots and post the next best 2 SP (no*) pitchers. HAL will mixed the last 2 slots based on availability. This type of rotation helps in the playoffs.

Two real baseball things that SOM doesn't use:

1) 5 man rotation. I think the 1980 A's were the last team to have a 4 man rotation. Why do we even need to have a debate? We should be playing a 5 man in every 20XX season.

2) Playoff rotations should be shortened. I don't recall any team in the playoffs using 5 different starters. Playoffs should always be 4 man. This would easily accomplished by programming "off or travel" days.

Just saying...

Kevin

IMHO, last two posts were right on, I was too lazy to articulate and type all that, but well stated gentlemen.

JT

Marc-
What's your take on an S6* vs. S7 or S8?

Let's say, for the sake of easy math, the pitcher averages innings pitched about the same as the fatigue number. Now the S6* is "worth" 240 innings, and the S7 is worth 224, only 6.7% penalty. Clayton Kershaw is anomaly this year as an S8, but he calcs out at 256, or another 6.7% more than the S6*, but 8.6% less than the S7*? Of course, this assumes "all other things being equal" for the cards in value.

"Two real baseball things that SOM doesn't use:

1) 5 man rotation. I think the 1980 A's were the last team to have a 4 man rotation. Why do we even need to have a debate? We should be playing a 5 man in every 20XX season."


Completely agree with this. The 4 man, 315 IP-ace, simply doesn't exist anymore, and it's completely unrealistic to turn good modern pitchers who clear the 200 IP thresholds into 1970-vintage Steve Carlton's. It'd be a better, more nuanced, and realistic game if the 4-mans were eliminated for 20xx seasons.

I wouldn't have a problem though if you were allowed to use them in the postseason only, perhaps with some sort of effectiveness penalty on short rest. EXcept for Bumgarner baby.

"Two real baseball things that SOM doesn't use:

1) 5 man rotation. I think the 1980 A's were the last team to have a 4 man rotation. Why do we even need to have a debate? We should be playing a 5 man in every 20XX season."


Completely agree with this. The 4 man, 315 IP-ace, simply doesn't exist anymore, and it's completely unrealistic to turn good modern pitchers who clear the 200 IP thresholds into 1970-vintage Steve Carlton's. It'd be a better, more nuanced, and realistic game if the 4-mans were eliminated for 20xx seasons.

I wouldn't have a problem though if you were allowed to use them in the postseason only, perhaps with some sort of effectiveness penalty on short rest. EXcept for Bumgarner baby.

Can't dispute the starting pitching model in the game is out-dated; it still does resemble the 1960s and 1970s in many ways for starter pitchers.


In 2014, only 20 pitchers in the AL even started the 32-33 games a non-* SP is almost certain to start during the online season. The NL had 24.

A closer realism would be to make the *SP into non-* guys and to make the non-* guys into needing rest every 5 days, but I suspect the ripples from a change like that would be significant.

Blue T,

If I understood your question correctly, then the simple answer is: there is no penalty in the sense you mean it because expected innings are factored in the SOM price. If a S7 is expected to pitch 224 innings and if a S6* is expected to pitch 240 innings, "all other things being equal", like you wrote, prices follow correspondingly. You get "penalized" (you overspend) if you don't follow that expected pattern.

I know you made the maths easy in your example, but let me add that the maths are not as simple as fatigue number X number of starts. The expected number of innings that is factored in the price depends on the quality of the card---the less on-base allowed, the slower the fatigue comes in, and the less power yielded on the pitcher's card, the smaller the chance that he gets out early because of a big inning. When absolutely everything is being equalled, the difference between S6 and S7 is roughly 20 innings for the better cards, and it goes as long as 15 innings for cards valued at around 1M-2M.

To give an example, say you limit Zimmerman to six innings max, so he pitched 6 innings max as instructed, and let's say moreover that he has over the course of the season 2 bad starts in which he gets out early, and 4 starts where he's out after only 5 innings. Zimmerman is *SP, so you get 40 starts. With such pattern, though, he sums up to 230 innings. Because of the quality of this card, though, you should expect 40 games of quality starts----according to my estimation, you should expect at least 260 innings of Zimmerman. That's 30 innings lost from what you could expect. "Other things being equal", you lose 30/260 X 5.46M = 0.63M. In this example, you basically play with a 79.3M roster.

Hope it clarifies your issue.

My current team has an interesting 5-man with 2 *'s

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1400827

It's a pitcher's park, and it was possible to have Baker start mostly at home, at least in the first half

he was set to start 26 times (but then one of the other SP got injured and it got pushed to 27), always quick hook 6 max -- ignoring his 2 relief appearances, his ERA as a starter is 3.56 so far -- a good use of 1m

For what is worth, I downloaded data for 10 completed "regular" seasons (range 70-100M) and computed the numbers of innings pitched for every pitcher for whom I had stats for at least two seasons. I had to make some adjustments---the most important, if a pitcher had less games started than expected, (for example a *SP with 36 starts) I adjusted the number of innings in order to project the expected number of starts (40/41 for *SP, 33/32 for regular SP)---I also removed innings pitched from the relief.

The last two colums represent that final number of innings pitched (with the number of seasons on which this projection is estimated). The third to last column is the number my formulas have predicted for every SP. As you can see, it's pretty damned close---only McCarthy is off by more than 10%.

Code: Select all

Team   Name   BAL   SAL   INNINGS   INN-PREDIC   INN-REAL   NB_SEAS
CLA   Kluber,   3R   7.85   S(7*)   297   301.5   10
SLN   Wainwri   3R   8.06   S(7*)   292   301.3   10
SEA   Hernand   1L   8.53   S(7*)   307   300.3   10
CIN   Cueto,J   1L   7.69   S(7*)   293   299.6   10
OAA   Samardz   1R   5.95   S(7*)   290   292.4   10
DEA   Scherze   2R   5.02   S(7*)   280   287.4   10
DEA   Price,D   1R   5.80   S(7*)   291   280.4   9
MNA   Hughes,   4L   5.15   S(7*)   287   280.4   8
OAA   Gray,S.   1R   5.22   S(7*)   274   276.0   10
OAA   Lester,   4R   6.16   S(7*)   286   273.8   10
DEA   Porcell   1R   3.06   S(7*)   269   272.1   9
LAN   Kershaw   1L   9.00   S(8)   280   270.8   10
WAN   Strasbu   1L   2.91   S(7*)   275   268.3   9
MLN   Fiers,M   2L   8.15   S(7)   253   265.8   7
WAN   Zimmerm   1R   5.63   S(6*)   260   265.3   9
ATN   Teheran   2R   5.26   S(7*)   282   264.5   6
SLN   Lynn,L.   1R   4.16   S(6*)   246   262.8   8
PHN   Hamels,   1R   4.69   S(7*)   274   260.2   8
MMN   Fernand   4R   6.88   S(7)   245   249.1   8
WAN   Roark,T   1R   4.61   S(6*)   254   248.9   10
SFN   Bumgarn   2L   3.25   S(6*)   253   248.9   9
LAA   Richard   1L   6.66   S(7)   233   245.9   7
MLN   Lohse,K   2R   3.31   S(6*)   249   244.4   5
NYN   Colon,B   3L   1.99   S(7*)   267   243.7   2
BAA   Tillman.   E   2.66   S(6*)   243   241.8   5
KCA   Shields.   1L   1.95   S(7*)   264   240.8   8
CHA   Quintan   2R   4.41   S(6*)   248   240.4   9
CHA   Sale,C*.   4L   7.98   S(6)   233   238.6   8
NYA   Kuroda,   2R   4.18   S(6*)   255   238.4   7
TOA   Dickey,   3L   3.69   S(6*)   250   236.3   6
DEA   Verland   6L   0.68   S(7*)   251   235.6   4
LAN   Greinke   3L   4.10   S(6*)   256   233.7   6
SLN   Lackey,   1L   1.62   S(6*)   240   233.5   2
TBA   Archer,   2L   2.42   S(6*)   232   233.1   8
TOA   Buehrle   E   1.95   S(6*)   233   233.0   2
ARN   Miley,W   E   1.00   S(6*)   226   232.5   3
NYA   Tanaka,   2L   5.31   S(7)   235   232.0   6
SDN   Kennedy   1L   2.36   S(6*)   241   231.7   7
MLN   Peralta   6R   2.45   S(6*)   237   231.5   3
CHN   Arrieta   E   7.45   S(6)   224   230.9   8
CIN   Simon,A   1R   2.43   S(6*)   240   230.3   4
DEA   Sanchez   2L   5.45   S(6)   214   230.3   6
CIN   Leake,M   4R   0.71   S(7*)   248   228.2   3
LAA   Weaver,   3R   2.18   S(6*)   243   225.3   2
CLA   Carrasc   2L   7.90   S(6)   227   224.8   6
NYA   Pineda,   1L   8.56   S(6)   242   224.5   6
MMN   Eovaldi   2R   0.96   S(6*)   228   222.3   2
SEA   Iwakuma   4R   4.18   S(7)   226   221.2   6
LAN   Haren,D   4L   2.21   S(6)   202   218.4   2
HOA   McHugh,   2R   5.63   S(6)   212   217.9   6
HOA   Keuchel   E   4.51   S(7)   218   217.1   7
WAN   Fister,   1R   4.77   S(7)   229   213.8   7
SEA   Paxton,   1L   3.91   S(6)   193   212.5   3
SFN   Peavy,J   1R   0.89   S(6*)   231   212.4   3
ATN   Wood,A*   1R   3.55   S(7)   214   209.9   6
KCA   Duffy,D   7L   3.62   S(6)   202   209.9   4
OAA   Kazmir,   3R   4.00   S(6)   201   209.6   6
SDN   Hahn,J.   1R   4.00   S(6)   199   208.9   7
CHN   Hendric   2L   6.09   S(6)   211   202.9   8
NYA   McCarth   E   1.98   S(6*)   243   202.7   3
OAA   Pomeran   4R   5.50   S(5)   193   202.1   4
SDN   Cashner   2R   4.56   S(6)   204   201.7   7
SDN   Ross,T.   1L   3.61   S(6)   191   200.5   5
NYN   Degrom,   E   4.90   S(6)   199   200.5   8
LAN   Ryu,H*.   2R   3.80   S(6)   196   199.9   7
SDN   Despaig   3R   3.23   S(6)   186   199.7   3
SEA   Young,C   5R   0.94   S(6)   182   199.2   2
TBA   Cobb,A   2L   3.90   S(6)   199   198.2   7
MMN   Alvarez   1L   1.86   S(6)   181   197.3   3
TOA   Stroman   E   4.74   S(6)   204   197.1   4
TEA   Darvish   3R   3.17   S(7)   214   195.9   6
TBA   Smyly,D   6L   2.73   S(6)   203   194.9   3
SLN   Wacha,M   3L   3.69   S(6)   196   194.8   6
PIN   Liriano   1R   2.60   S(6)   182   194.4   3
NYN   Niese,J   1L   2.67   S(6)   190   193.5   4
LAA   Shoemak   3R   2.86   S(6)   195   192.2   5
BOA   Kelly,J   1L   2.45   S(6)   178   190.0   2
MLN   Garza,M   1L   3.61   S(6)   195   188.5   4
OAA   Hammel,   E   3.32   S(6)   203   187.5   5
ATN   Santana   3R   1.11   S(6)   172   187.0   2
SLN   Miller,   E   2.66   S(6)   189   186.8   3
PIN   Worley,   2L   2.50   S(6)   185   185.6   2
SFN   Petit,Y   5R   2.54   S(5)   185   185.2   3
PIN   Cole,G.   1R   1.88   S(6)   181   185.2   4
DEA   Lobstei   1L   3.70   S(5)   184   184.1   4
NYN   Wheeler   4R   2.48   S(6)   178   183.7   2
NYN   Gee,D..   E   2.60   S(6)   190   182.3   2
KCA   Ventura   2L   2.29   S(6)   181   180.7   4
CON   Anderso   4R   2.48   S(6)   183   171.0   4


Hey Clown,

That's why I love so much the cheaper SP---you can play the matchups without hurting your roster---if Baker finishes with 26 starts, instead of 32, that's a minimal loss at 1.06M for a lot to gain--avoid those BP getting banged on!!!

BTW, I did the same in my first Tour team----Baker is 3.06 so far

GREAT stuff Marc!