what does this mean / imply?

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J-Pav

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Re: what does this mean / imply?

PostFri May 29, 2015 12:23 pm

Okay, okay.

I'll do one interview with the word police, then you can talk to my lawyers after that.

I lumped Secret Formula fundamentals in with the "conventional wisdom" and technically that was a mistake on my part. The Secret Formula is pretty well documented. Conventional wisdom is generally accepted, but largely unexamined.

The purpose of what I wrote was simply to demonstrate that you shouldn't believe everything you read on the boards. However, some of it you can believe. Conventional wisdom is not necessarily wrong, it's just not well documented.

You appear to be saying (and we all know you'll correct me if I'm wrong) that because you created four runner up teams with some 3s in the middle, the conventional wisdom regarding 3s is wrong. No, "conventional wisdom" is just the wrong choice of words. Veteran best practices have been documented (by me personally) to demonstrate that in the vast majority of Championship teams, 1s and 2s were used up the middle (to incl CF). You CAN use 3s, but you would be overcoming some pretty steep odds.

To back this up, I examined about 20-25 championship teams from each of about 10 years and posted about it quite openly.

Now, if you want to convince me otherwise, feel free to go ahead and do so. All you need to do is show me about 200 championship teams that did NOT use 1s or 2s up the middle. I'll be over here waiting. To believe that four teams that did not even win championships overturns 10 plus years of documented best practices is quite a leap. So, good luck with that! :lol:

Lastly, what is the difference between a Champs team and a runner-up team? Well, did you ever consider it might be as simple as a 2 instead of a 3 up the middle and maybe changing your running settings? :lol:

You don't want my opinion anyway, you just want a chance to give us yours. So go ahead and take the podium and tell us how your way is better.

I'm truly looking forward to your answer on this.
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J-Pav

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Re: what does this mean / imply?

PostFri May 29, 2015 12:26 pm

Thx jimmer, Ris and Robert! :D
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l.strether

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Re: what does this mean / imply?

PostFri May 29, 2015 12:26 pm

Risden wrote:With fairly equivalent offensive production, the preferred defense for SS and 2B is a 1 or 2, based on the charts, the number of chances in a game relative to other positions and the number of double plays that can really hold an opponent's scoring opportunities to a minimum. The goal is not to score the most runs - the goal is to outscore your opponent.

I am a relative newbie compared to most of the players in this game, but I just did a quick scan of my 154 completed teams - 25 World Series winners and 49 other teams that made the playoffs...48% of my completed teams have qualified for the playoffs in a wide variety of formats - open leagues, theme leagues, etc. and the majority of my teams featured a 1 or a 2 at the keystone positions...a couple of 3's and a sprinkling of 4's at 2B. (I don't even think there was a "1" SS in the entire 1969 catalog - I may be wrong on that - not sure).

Does that mean it is an absolute that you need a 1 or 2 ? Not in any way. This is indeed a small sample size, but it is just the type of defense up the middle that I am used to and prefer.

As J-Pav mentioned before, there are no absolutes in the SOM game. All types of teams can win (or lose) - keystone defense is one factor.

Feel free to question every sentence of my opinion. :roll:

I don't disagree with anything you said. I will make this clear: I definitely prefer 1's and 2's at SS and 2b, and most of my teams--including most of my championship teams--have had them. I've just found that some seasons don't have the usual number of quality offensive 1's or 2's at the keystone positions and inversely have some very nice offensive 3's at the position. When that's the case, I usually gravitate towards the latter.

So, I don't disagree at all with those who think 1's and 2's at the keystone are preferable. I just disagree with those who think one doesn't have a clear chance of winning with 3's there and tend to avoid altogether.
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ScumbyJr

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Re: what does this mean / imply?

PostFri May 29, 2015 12:27 pm

It's all correlation not causation. Boils down to the math. Stating the obvious, poor fielding can be offset by hitting. I admit to just guesstimating and not actually doing the math, but my intuition tells me 2013 Hanley passes the test, 2014 Hanley doesn't. I'm basically playing for fun and have my player biases too. A team itself doesn't tell you the story -it's relative to the division and the league. The season is won during preseason.

and the criticisms of HALism I take as a running joke.
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l.strether

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Re: what does this mean / imply?

PostFri May 29, 2015 12:30 pm

J-Pav, I have been nothing less than polite with you in our discussion. You have returned that politeness with rudely referring to me as the "word police"...when I never "policed" or even criticized your word usage at all.

So, since I have already answered everything you have said in my previous posts, I will just move on. Have an excellent Friday and enjoy your weekend.
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Risden

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Re: what does this mean / imply?

PostFri May 29, 2015 12:38 pm

ScumbyJr wrote:A team itself doesn't tell you the story -it's relative to the division and the league.

The season is won during preseason.

and the criticisms of HALism I take as a running joke.


Three sentences that I absolutely agree with - once the season starts, I rarely make moves; I enjoy the pre-season and the post-season. The part in the middle can be a bit boring (slight sarcasm).
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J-Pav

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Re: what does this mean / imply?

PostFri May 29, 2015 12:41 pm

+1
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ScumbyJr

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Re: what does this mean / imply?

PostFri May 29, 2015 12:59 pm

[/quote] The part in the middle can be a bit boring (slight sarcasm).[/quote]

I know what you mean. If you are in first place you have no where to go but down. It's basically sweating it out the rest of the way.
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ROBERTLATORRE

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Re: what does this mean / imply?

PostFri May 29, 2015 1:22 pm

ScumbyJr wrote:It's all correlation not causation. Boils down to the math.


I agree with you Scumby, it is the math. The concept of adjusting the hitters OPS by his fielding OPS to get to an overall value is commonly used. If we do this with two players from the '14 set, it presents an interesting comparison:

Pedroia,D 6,470,000, BOA 2b-1e4 .278/.337/.376
Colon,C 4,920,000, KCA 2b-3e18 .333/.375/.489

Similar speed, steal, h&r, both RH. Colon is a better bunter (B to D) but is a 2 INJ (Pedroia is a 1). If you subtract the OPS that they give up defensively, their OPS / modified OPS is:

Pedrioa .739/.714 (a 1e4 allows almost nothing in the field, .025 OPS)
Colon 1.003/.703 (a 3e18 gives up .300 OPS)
(edit - the OPS used for comparison are from their CARD RATINGS, not MLB stats)

So the are .011 apart when defense and offense are considered. Give me Colon and the $1.5 mil salary savings to spend somewhere else on the roster every time! Their combined O and D will wash over the course of a season.
Last edited by ROBERTLATORRE on Fri May 29, 2015 5:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Valen

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Re: what does this mean / imply?

PostFri May 29, 2015 3:56 pm

I know what you mean. If you are in first place you have no where to go but down. It's basically sweating it out the rest of the way.

So this explains why some of my teams struggle. I am too cool to sweat. :lol:
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