J-Pav wrote:To Clowntime: I agree with you regarding losing teams, but only to an extent. Yes, when you divide $30 mil over 10 pitchers and $50 mil over 14 hitters, it will kinda sorta all look the same. But maybe not. There will be no $40 mil pitching staffs, no teams with three $10 mil fielders, etc. Middle defense will stand out. And misspent salary is not only mid-season salary-dumping. It's a $2 mil vs RHP/$5 mil vs LHP platoon. It's a $6 mil closer getting 20 innings with cheapy starters carrying the bulk of the innings. It's an overpaid/under-utilized backup. Hindsight makes it easier, but it can be discernible preseason.
OK. I was referring only to the 8-7-6-5-4-3-2 theory, nothing else. Again, I thnk it's a statistical inevitability for good and bad teams to average out to something resembling this at the beginning of the season, and that the deviation from it by bad teams at ends of seasons is because bad teams experiment with replacing players far more often, once they are out of the running, while teams in the race maintain stautus quo. I'm not referring to any other aspect of salary stracture than the 87654321 idea.
I suspect this also applies to some other bad-team analysis, but not all; the factor of end-season vs. opening day has to be considered when weighing some of the bad-team analysis. But I'm not specifying anything except the 87654321 theory.