Is there a negative bias against teams?

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l.strether

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Re: Is there a negative bias against teams?

PostWed Jun 10, 2015 5:54 pm

MARCPELLETIER wrote:I know from first-hand experience because I am the one who proved statistically that normalization was operating. At that time, the officials at SOM didn't want to confirm or infirm the rumor. But when I showed the statistical proof on the old boards, a lot of players wanted to quit, and faced with this mounting controversy, Bernie of TSN-SOM went public and decided to check the option off.

I'm not questioning your claim, Marc; if SOM admitted to normalization, then they obviously normalized. I'm just curious, can you--as someone who examined this--tell us what statistics they normalized, how they normalized them, and when exactly (or roughly) normalization kicked in?

I'm particularly interested to know if the "normalized" player was hampered so much he became a worse option then a player on the bench, which would have been really lousy.
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STEVE F

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Re: Is there a negative bias against teams?

PostWed Jun 10, 2015 5:56 pm

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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MARCPELLETIER

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Re: Is there a negative bias against teams?

PostWed Jun 10, 2015 9:31 pm

I'm not so sure how normalization was performed, other than knowing it was more about reducing probabilities of events rather than eliminating the possibility of events. So if a particular player had hit 15 hr in real-life 2001 season, and had already hit 15 at mid-season in the replay SOM online, he could still hit another one, but the probability of hitting a homerun was quite reduced.

But just to repeat: normalization doesn't happen anymore in the online game.
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l.strether

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Re: Is there a negative bias against teams?

PostWed Jun 10, 2015 10:19 pm

Thanks, Marc. I still think it would be cool to find out how exactly they normalized players' stats and when in a player's statistical horizon they decided to do it. Also, I think it's a bit nefarious of SOM to not only apply this normalization without notifying users, but to also play "dumb" about it when confronted about it. It would have been nice if managers knew when their players were "cursed" and had the option to replace those players with their bench or free agents. Of course, that might be exactly what they were trying to prevent with their silence.

Anyway, I'm glad the normalization is off. i play this game for the fun and the challenge of GMing and managing my teams to a hopeful winning season and (hopefully) title. I certainly don't play it to see my team reproduce real-life stats.
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blue turtle

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Re: Is there a negative bias against teams?

PostWed Jun 10, 2015 10:52 pm

Thanks, both for the answer and for assuring me that my memory does retain some things.
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J-Pav

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Re: Is there a negative bias against teams?

PostThu Jun 11, 2015 11:58 am

MARCPELLETIER wrote:But just to repeat: normalization doesn't happen anymore in the online game.

A quick email response from OnlineGameSupport, for full confirmation:

"Nope, no normalization for players or teams. The question always comes up but it doesn't exist."
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Szerio

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Re: Is there a negative bias against teams?

PostThu Jun 11, 2015 8:45 pm

genegrid wrote:is this another public retirement? You should have seen some speeches from the old veterans
and others pleading to stop them. It is sad and pitiful to announce you are leaving an online game. And i've found half of them comeback under a different personna. I been here since 2002 with the same name and I have seen it all,
Very sad, my heart goes out to you and my body and mind is going out for a Martini!


Sorry - maybe I won't retire permanently but I have not been able to pull my credit card to reload with teams. My question was some teams seem to have bad luck / poor performance for an entire system. I sometimes do projection models and can factor a worse case scenario with results 20% below norm - and was wondering if SOM built in some kind of random factor that can change a teams "luck". A bit like how a fatigued pitcher will have more rolls pushed to the batters card.

Have had about 125 teams over the years since my 2004 free trial - played ATG2. Just have never had such a down streak.

Hope you enjoyed your martini.

Steve Z
Motor City
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Szerio

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Re: Is there a negative bias against teams?

PostThu Jun 11, 2015 8:50 pm

l.strether wrote:There has been discussion about this, and I don't think it's ever been resolved. I also don't know if anyone has directly asked SOM about this, and someone probably should. I do know that many of my teams and others' have had players with stats way beyond their real-life ones. For example, here is my 2001 Skydome (1-8,1-8 hr) team with Rich Aurilia hitting 50 hrs and driving in 158, when his real stats were 37/97:
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/506978

And here is my 2012 team with Matt Dominguez hitting 39 hrs and driving in 90, when his real life stats were 5/16:
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1123962

So, if SOM is actually normalizing performances, they aren't doing a particularly good job of it. Also, if they are normalizing performances, and were doing so in a structured regulated manner, their normalization of a team's players wouldn't be "bias," since it also be equally applied to all other teams in the league. However, if they were to be fair to all types of teams, they would have to be sure to normalize pitching and running stats as well, not just standard offensive ones.


Nice team !!! 102 wins is special - perhaps a best case scenario team. Not thinking normalization but a random 10 point adder / subtractor to provide the randomness that MLB has each year.
Thanks for the thoughtful response.

Steve Z
Motor City
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Radagast Brown

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Re: Is there a negative bias against teams?

PostThu Jun 11, 2015 9:40 pm

Retiring from SOM is a bad idea. You do not need a vacation from this fantasy island!
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l.strether

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Re: Is there a negative bias against teams?

PostThu Jun 11, 2015 9:48 pm

Szerio wrote:
l.strether wrote:There has been discussion about this, and I don't think it's ever been resolved. I also don't know if anyone has directly asked SOM about this, and someone probably should. I do know that many of my teams and others' have had players with stats way beyond their real-life ones. For example, here is my 2001 Skydome (1-8,1-8 hr) team with Rich Aurilia hitting 50 hrs and driving in 158, when his real stats were 37/97:
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/506978

And here is my 2012 team with Matt Dominguez hitting 39 hrs and driving in 90, when his real life stats were 5/16:
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1123962

So, if SOM is actually normalizing performances, they aren't doing a particularly good job of it. Also, if they are normalizing performances, and were doing so in a structured regulated manner, their normalization of a team's players wouldn't be "bias," since it also be equally applied to all other teams in the league. However, if they were to be fair to all types of teams, they would have to be sure to normalize pitching and running stats as well, not just standard offensive ones.


Nice team !!! 102 wins is special - perhaps a best case scenario team. Not thinking normalization but a random 10 point adder / subtractor to provide the randomness that MLB has each year.
Thanks for the thoughtful response.

Steve Z
Motor City

Thanks, man. I think that was just my 4th team, so I was pretty pleased with it. That Aurilia card is still my favorite card of all time and Wade Miller was my first and last 28-game winner. Anyway, I look forward to playing you in a league, sometime.
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