l.strether wrote:The MLB draft is this Monday, and I've made my predictions for them. I did ok last year, and was particularly happy to predict my Giants would nab Tyler Beede at 15. While I, of course, relied on outside sources like BA and Baseball Prospectus for my info on the players, my predictions and comments are my own. I based them on my knowledge of the players, the needs of each team, and each teams drafting tendencies in the past 5+ years.
There are no clear Kris Bryants, Bryce Harpers, or Stephen Strasburgs in this draft, but it is (obviously) rich in quality shortstops and high school pitchers and outfielders:
1. ARI--Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt. The smooth-swinging Swanson should replace either Owens or Ahmed by 2017.
2. HOU--Alex Bregman, SS, LSU. Bregman could also make a quick impact, taking over SS from Lowrie and moving the big Correa to 3b.
3. COL--Brendan Rogers, SS, HS (Fla). The powerful SS Rogers would join Trevor Story as the possible future replacements of Tulo at SS.
4. TEX--Dillon Tate, RHP, UCSB--The hard throwing Tate would immediately become Texas' best pitching prospect and could advance quickly.
5. HOU--Daz Cameron, OF, HS (GA). Mike Cameron's son is a four-tool talent who could join a talented outfield with Marisnick and Springer.
6. MIN--Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois. The Twins need starting pitching, particularly left-handed SPs, and Jay could join the rotation next year.
7. BOS--Andrew Benitendi, OF, Arkansas. The pure hitting Beritendi is Cherington's type of player, and he could move Ramirez to DH where he belongs.
8. CWS--Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt. The hard-throwing Fulmer could follow Rodon's quick ascent and join him and the Shark in the rotation
9. CHC--Garrett Whitley, OF, HS (Ny). Fowler isn't Theo's long-term answer at CF, and the 5-tool Whitley could fill that spot immediately
10. PHI--Kyle Tucker, OF, HS (Fla). Philly is short on blue-chip out-field prospect; the powerful Tucker would immediately become their best.
11. CIN--Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville. The Reds love college pitchers, and Funkhouser is a local one who could advance quickly.
12. MIA--Trenton Clark, OF, HS (Tex). Yelich and Ozuna have taken steps backward, so Marlins can't pass on the speedy Cf Clark.
13. TB--Nick Plummer, OF, HS (Mic). The Rays outfield is far from settled, so the sweet-swinging Plummer would be a welcome addition.
14. ATL--Phil Bickford, RHP, JC (Nev). The Braves love Juco players, and Bickford was one of the nation's best two years ago.
15. MIL--Walker Buehler, RHP, Nevada. The Brewers need immediate rotation help, the slight but hard-throwing Buehler could provide it.
16. NYY--Ashe Russell, RHP, HS (Ind). Besides Severino and Clarkin, the Yankees pitching cupboard is bare; the solid sturdy Russell would help.
17. CLE--Mike Nikorak, RHP, HS (Pa). The Indians are also low on pitching, so the big hurler Nikorak would be definitely welcome.
18. SF--James Kaprelian, RHP, UCLA. The Giants need back-end rotation help and hope the high floor-low ceiling Kaprelian could give it.
19. PIT--Kolby Allard, LHP, HS (CAL). Besides Cole, PIT's rotation is old, so the injured fireballer Allard could join Glasnow as their future starters.
20. OAK--Jon Harris, RHP, Missouri St. Beane loves college pitchers and will hope to repeat his success with Gray with the savvy Harris.
21. KC--Cornelius Randolph, SS, HS (Ga). KC's system is low on solid hitters. Randolph has one of the best bats in the draft and could be their future 2b.
22. DET--Tyler Stephenson, C, Hs (Ga). Unsure of McCann, The Tigers will pounce on the big, powerful, solid defender Stephenson as his possible replacement.
23. STL--Nathan Kirby, LHP, Virginia. The Cards love college pitchers, and lefty Kirby throws a bit harder than Gonzalez
24. LAD--Brady Aiken, LHP, IMG Acad. The Dodgers will hope Aiken pulls a Giolito and returns to his original dominant self. At this pick, it would be worth the risk.
25. BAL--Richie Martin, SS, Florida. Martin is a better pure hitter than Hardy, if not as smooth as powerful, and would be a solid successor.
26. LAA--Kevin Newman, Ss-2b, Arizona. The hard-hitting Newman would immediately become LA's future 2b, and he could be that soon.
27. COL--Danny Everett, Rhp, HS, (TN). After taking Rogers, the young fireballer Everett will help shore up Rockies' poor pitching cache.
28. ATL--D.J. Stewart, Of, Florida State. The powerful Stewart would become the Braves' future Lf in an organization short on top Of's
29. TOR--Ian Happ, 2b-Of, Ohio. The versatile sweet-swinging Happ could move Travis to Cf or settle in nicely in Left. Either way, he would be a welcome bat.
30. NYY--Chris Betts, C, HS (Cal). Gary Sanchez has disappointed, so the powerful Betts would become McCann's heir apparent.
I would also like to thank Rburgh for his excellent predictions and, particularly, his on-topic contributions to the thread.