Is there a negative bias against teams?

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Ninersphan

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Re: Is there a negative bias against teams?

PostThu Jun 11, 2015 9:51 pm

MARCPELLETIER wrote:
blue turtle wrote:
Hasn't there been discussions about player performances being normalized by the online game? That is, let's say some player is getting outrageously great stats or batting average, I thought I read the online game puts the brakes on to make the performance come out "right." If that is the case, then wouldn't that also help explain the .667 team "evening out" too?


SOM has been water-clear with regards to normalization, this option available on the online game that has the effect to increase statistical accuracy. It is NOT operating anymore. Many years ago, SOM was using this option but it put it off when controversy started mounting when people realized normalization was on. You can further see in the super-advanced setting on the wiki page affiliated with SOM that the option is checked off.

I know from first-hand experience because I am the one who proved statistically that normalization was operating.
At that time, the officials at SOM didn't want to confirm or infirm the rumor. But when I showed the statistical proof on the old boards, a lot of players wanted to quit, and faced with this mounting controversy, Bernie of TSN-SOM went public and decided to check the option off.

I remember this very clearly. It was back in to old days of TSN and might have even been on the origiInal forums which were lost. (The TSN archived ones do not go all the way back to the start of the online game) It was Bonds that brought the issue to light if I recall as people started noticing while playing in Coors his home run rate would start to drastically reduce once he'd get to his actual HR numbers. There would still be 35 games or so left in a season and he might only hit one or two more homers for the rest of the season. It was quite the controversy.
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Valen

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Re: Is there a negative bias against teams?

PostFri Jun 12, 2015 4:27 pm

One thing that needs to be kept in mind when playing 200x. The names may be the same but every player set is different and there are subtle differences from year to year on pricing, etc. For example as time passes they may decide pitching is over priced and adjust their formula one year to the next. Or general shifts in trends throughout baseball such as return to speed and defense post roids era, etc.

Sometimes these subtle changes mean strategies that worked well in 2004 set do not work well in 2014 set. Heck, when I played 200x a lot instead of ATG I could see changes from one year to the next where a favorite strategy needed to be shelved and something new developed. There were years where I won multiple titles (2001) and years I never figured out (2006).
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l.strether

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Re: Is there a negative bias against teams?

PostFri Jun 12, 2015 4:49 pm

Valen wrote:One thing that needs to be kept in mind when playing 200x. The names may be the same but every player set is different and there are subtle differences from year to year on pricing, etc. For example as time passes they may decide pitching is over priced and adjust their formula one year to the next. Or general shifts in trends throughout baseball such as return to speed and defense post roids era, etc....
Sometimes these subtle changes mean strategies that worked well in 2004 set do not work well in 2014 set.

I think it's safe to say almost every manager knows that every set is different, every year's card of a player is different than the last, and SOM alters its pricing approaches for each set. So, I'm not sure why that's news.

Also, that doesn't really have anything to do with "bias" or in-season "normalization." So, it's not particularly relevant.
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STEVE F

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Re: Is there a negative bias against teams?

PostFri Jun 12, 2015 5:50 pm

:lol: :lol: :lol:
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geekor

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Re: Is there a negative bias against teams?

PostFri Jun 12, 2015 6:22 pm

Szerio wrote:
genegrid wrote:is this another public retirement? You should have seen some speeches from the old veterans
and others pleading to stop them. It is sad and pitiful to announce you are leaving an online game. And i've found half of them comeback under a different personna. I been here since 2002 with the same name and I have seen it all,
Very sad, my heart goes out to you and my body and mind is going out for a Martini!


Sorry - maybe I won't retire permanently but I have not been able to pull my credit card to reload with teams. My question was some teams seem to have bad luck / poor performance for an entire system. I sometimes do projection models and can factor a worse case scenario with results 20% below norm - and was wondering if SOM built in some kind of random factor that can change a teams "luck". A bit like how a fatigued pitcher will have more rolls pushed to the batters card.

Have had about 125 teams over the years since my 2004 free trial - played ATG2. Just have never had such a down streak.

Hope you enjoyed your martini.

Steve Z
Motor City


I've definitely had unlucky seasons.

2003 was a great/horrible set for me. I enjoyed my best winning % of any season, never missed the playoffs in an auto-league. Problem was the playoffs, I never won a title, and only had a small handful of finals appearances. Some other sets (08/09) I did horrible in, no matter what. 2002, and 2012 (guess 2022 will be my next) were the opposite. Won title with teams that shouldn't have. Best Title/team ratio for me.

Some seasons lady luck is on your side, others not so much.
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genegrid

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Re: Is there a negative bias against teams?

PostSun Jun 14, 2015 11:22 am

Szerio wrote:
genegrid wrote:is this another public retirement? You should have seen some speeches from the old veterans
and others pleading to stop them. It is sad and pitiful to announce you are leaving an online game. And i've found half of them comeback under a different personna. I been here since 2002 with the same name and I have seen it all,
Very sad, my heart goes out to you and my body and mind is going out for a Martini!


Sorry - maybe I won't retire permanently but I have not been able to pull my credit card to reload with teams. My question was some teams seem to have bad luck / poor performance for an entire system. I sometimes do projection models and can factor a worse case scenario with results 20% below norm - and was wondering if SOM built in some kind of random factor that can change a teams "luck". A bit like how a fatigued pitcher will have more rolls pushed to the batters card.

Have had about 125 teams over the years since my 2004 free trial - played ATG2. Just have never had such a down streak.

Hope you enjoyed your martini.

Steve Z
Motor City


If you have been playing since 2004 you know the question of normalization comes up every year. At first they admitted it existed and then quickly claimed it did not. Kind of like NASA, USAF and UFO's,
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coyote303

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Re: Is there a negative bias against teams?

PostSun Jun 14, 2015 12:18 pm

[Szerio] was wondering if SOM built in some kind of random factor that can change a teams "luck".

Yes, they did! It's called "dice"--albeit, a computerized version of dice.
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