*****IMPORTANT**** Chief Myers Injury on #3

What is it then?

Since i do not have the code all I can do is speculate based on empirical evidence.

Id guess that the code contains at least the following in order from my fairly certain to least certain:

1) A modifier that increases the chance of re-injury every time a player is injured; and would speculate that its a cumulative effect for a given period.
2) Some sort of overall injury base-chance determined by the total inj. ratings of all players on a particular team.
3) Some sort of batch injury chance of a particular player across the system.

As an aside: If someone does not believe the game code uses modifiers from what you see on the cards then you aren't paying close enough attention.

(am not claiming this [the modifers] are a cardinal sin, but its something that should be known)

What statistical work have you done on injured players to show any of this is true? Have you looked to see if 200 players are injured that those 200 players have a greater chance of being injured in the future? I will start a thread of teams at the start of a season and we shall see 200 players that are injured and if over the course of a season if following original injury if they are injured more as seasons progress. My bet is they do not but we shall see what data shows before you ask to see the X-files

First game Back and HURT AGAIN!

In his first game he gets pulled after two abs for a PH....In his second game he gets hurt for the remainder of the game...next game he gets hurt for the remainder of the game...next game he gets hurt for two games.

In SIX TOTAL ABS he's been hurt THREE times. That's got to be pretty unlikely yes?

FIRST AB of 1st game Back.... INJURED



SIX (6) ABS HURT FOUR (4) TIMES!!!!

SEVEN ABS HURT FIVE TIMES

Meyers, Chief (1911) C 2 4.73M Game 128 2 additional days
Charleston, Oscar (NeL) CF 1 12.89M Game 128 3 additional days
Mathews, Eddie (1953) 3B 1 8.00M Game 132 3 additional days
Meyers, Chief (1911) C 2 4.73M Game 132 4 additional days
Meyers, Chief (1911) C 2 4.73M Game 137 1 additional day


Keep in mind in the two previous games 126, 127 he was hurt in each but only missed the remainder so it doesn't make this list.

7 abs 5 injuries

Nev-

Has anyone at SoM answered you???


Charlie-
Im assuming your question is rhetorical, since my remark opened with 'this is speculation'.

All I have to do is look back at teams Ive played to get the idea of weather I see a high frequency of repeat injuries.

Speaking of Weather:

If there is a 99% chance of rain for 3 days, yet its a sunny 3 days- technically the weather man is still correct; but wouldn't you want to know how he/she is figuring out their forecast?
Heck, even if its sunny 2 of those days, I would.

I had the original computer diskette game. It was the reason I got in to computers in the first place.
I remember reports on things like hit streaks that had happened. But I remember nothing in any of the documentation or anything else suggesting that steaks were programmed in. But even if they were what is important is whether the current cdrom game has such a feature. I cannot speak for the last couple years because I quit buying the annual cdrom game when they used drm to invalidate my historical season purchases. But I definitely do not remember any going to cause a streak feature in the cdrom game.

I had the original computer diskette game. It was the reason I got in to computers in the first place.
I remember reports on things like hit streaks that had happened. But I remember nothing in any of the documentation or anything else suggesting that steaks were programmed in. But even if they were what is important is whether the current cdrom game has such a feature. I cannot speak for the last couple years because I quit buying the annual cdrom game when they used drm to invalidate my historical season purchases. But I definitely do not remember any going to cause a streak feature in the cdrom game.

Valen, the streak feature was a little plus or minus when you pulled up the players pic or card- it was a square box with the modifier on the bottom.
Most of the guys only had a small numbers like +3 or -2.
The explanation involved where the numbers came from.
I remember seeing it only on the special diskette.

I see. Thanks for the add explanation. I assume this feature was scrapped because ongoing with more advanced features and more cards to access things like this would just be bloated code. Most of the additions to the computer game I saw over the years of purchasing were to compensate for weaknesses in the algorithm of the card and dice system.

I assume just the opposite;

the features were most likely enhanced and then just automatically put into the game- perhaps not shown b/c they felt others would copy the ideas?
it sure seems like all those features I saw are in operation plus some more;

Not you Valen, but,
there are people who SOLELY worship the all powerful god of statistical analysis, so for them using your human senses is a waste of time, as is me trying to explain this.
I'm absolutely mathematically certain that the reason some of the better players here aren't top statisticians is complete luck

Nev-

Has anyone at SoM answered you???


Charlie-
Im assuming your question is rhetorical, since my remark opened with 'this is speculation'.

All I have to do is look back at teams Ive played to get the idea of weather I see a high frequency of repeat injuries.

Speaking of Weather:

If there is a 99% chance of rain for 3 days, yet its a sunny 3 days- technically the weather man is still correct; but wouldn't you want to know how he/she is figuring out their forecast?
Heck, even if its sunny 2 of those days, I would.

No your post open "Since I do not have the code...." you do not at all need code to determine if something is occurring randomly or if their is a predetermined sequence of events. If something is not random the results will show in the actual results. This is how it was proved that normalization was on for home runs. An entire league was paid for $300 and set up to get the maximum number of home runs and it was show that after game 120 the home run rate dropped far below random order and when you had 12 teams and 100 home run hitters the result was conclusive and led to the admittance that HR normalization was on and it was turned off.

Was Barry Larkin when he played somehow set to repeat injuries as opposed to Cal Ripken? Was there something that major league baseball or the Cincinnati Reds were doing to insure that Barry Larkin would get injured again year after year or was it random chance? According to your highly attuned sense of forecasting I assume you would have been able to select which injuries are random and which are part of some secret plot.

Allen Trammel was a great shortstop but missed at least 25 games in 13 of his 20 seasons. In the last 10 years of his career Ken Griffey missed 20+ games 8 times, is this a conspiracy, it must be because there were plenty of players that were never injured during the entire year, of course in the 10 years previous Ken Griffey almost never missed a game, the MLB computers must have kept him injury free. Carl Pavano is another always hurt player on the disabled list. Nomar Garciappara missed 100 games 5 times in his career, was this a baseball conspiracy or just random bad luck for Nomar? How come everyone that got injured didn't miss 100 games for multiple seasons, how is it possible that he could go on injured reserve time after time after time? There are plenty of player that get injured and don't get injured again yet these players did it MUST be a conspiracy, just like bad weather reports!

Now what is common to all these players? In order to be hurt multiple times you must be hurt the first time. Anyone that is hurt multiple times has to be hurt the first time. This means if you take a list of players that are injured it is far more likely that anyone who is to be injured more than average is going to be on the early list. This does not mean the first time a player goes on a DL that they will be injured again but anyone that is injured multiple times by default HAS to be injured the first time. So if you are looking for a player that will consistently get hurt if you look at players that went on the disabled list at the start of a season it is likely they will be on that list, it is what occurs by definition.

Here is a list of one of my teams early injuries please tell me who is going to be on the injured list multiple times:Chance, Frank Chance (1903) 1B 2 5.88M Game 13 1 additional day
Meusel, Bob (1927) LF 1 6.03M Game 32 2 additional days
Lajoie, Nap (1904) 2B 1 8.78M Game 32 7 additional days
Geronimo, Cesar (1975) CF 1 3.14M Game 49 7 additional days
Marcelle, Ghost (NeL) 3B 1 3.06M Game 61 1 additional day

Here is another team: Here are the injures please tell me who will be injured multiple times in the future
Edwards, Johnny (1965) C 2 2.60M Game 10 1 additional day
Dihigo, Martin (NeL) SS 1 5.65M Game 12 1 additional day
Minoso, Minnie (1955) LF 1 3.06M Game 20 1 additional day
Kling, Johnny (1902) C 2 1.25M Game 27 5 additional days
Carr, Tank (NeL) 1B 1 4.38M Game 29 10 additional days

Let me tell you how this works, if any single player of these 10 players gets injured 4 or more times in a season then the screams of OH MY GOD THERE IS COMPUTER CODE KEEPING THESE PLAYERS HURT AND THEY ARE NOT TELLING ME. IF you play 25 new leagues a week then you have 250 of these every week to post and in a year 10,000+ and just 6 or 7 outliers can "prove" to anyone that code must exist.