The state of the trade market

What's the realistic universe of players who might be on the move over the next month before MLB's non-waiver trade deadline? With emphasis on "might".

Right now, there are 8 teams who should consider themselves "sellers" although 1-2 of them might be in denial about it for another week. Interestingly enough, 7 of those teams are in the NL which has a lot less parity than the AL this year.

They are: Chisox (worst team in the AL), Arizona, Colorado, Cinci (it's time boys, it's time), Milwaukee (so putrid), Atlanta, Miami, and Philly (worst team in MLB). These doormats could easily be joined at the deadline by a similar number of teams that will wait to see if they can make a move in the standings in July: Padres, Mets, Red Sox, Mariners, A's, Indians, Rangers, and Twins.

Given the above, I think buyers are looking at a small, but legitimate amount of ace starting pitchers to choose from, an unimpressive 2nd-tier starting pitching market, an extremely scare group of outfielders, a deep but mediocre group of infielders, and perhaps the deepest group of available front line closers (-approx 40% of total) in recent memory. If a buyer can wait til the deadline, a few offensive gems are likely to become available, but few additional pitchers will.

C Lucroy, Piersynski, Ruiz, Flowers, Soto, W.Castilo, Rosario, McKenry, and Hundley. *Vogt,Phegley, Chrinios and Suzuki could become available close to deadline.

1b Lind, Laroche, Bour, Morse. *Alonso and Moreland at deadline

2b Phillips, Hill. *Zobrist at deadline

SS Tulowitzki, A.Ramirez, Segura, Pennington

3b Uribe, Prado, A.Ramirez, Lamb, C.Johnson. *Beltre and Plouffe at deadline

Lf Byrd, D.Brown. *J.Upton at deadline

Cf C.Gomez, Revere, Blackmon. *Venable at deadline

Rf Francouer. *Reddick, Moss, T.Hunter at deadline

DH Howard. *N.Cruz at deadline

SP Hamels, Cueto, Samardijzia, Leake, Haren, Koehler, Phelps, Harang, J.Williams, Lohse, Garza, Hellickson, Collmenter, Hale. *Kazmir, Kennedy, Colon, and Happ at deadline

RP Chapman, Paplebon, F.Rodriguez, Robertson, Grilli, Axford, J.Johnson, Hoover, J.Diaz, Ziegler, D.Hudson, Cotts, Broxton, Logan. *Kimbrell, Familia, Clippard, Rodney, and Perkins at deadline.


There are reasons to be skeptical about many names on the list above, but this is the plausible universe of big leaguers who could (or should) be moved by the deadline.

I'm wondering if the current state of play means (1) we'll see a lot of NL teams deal major leaguers to the AL for prospect types and (2) if fantasy baseball owners will be scrambling to find closer replacements the first week in August as roles change.

Now, I'm going to take a look at who the buyers might be at each position and come up with some potential trade destinations.

As a general rule there looks to be little demand for SS, 3b, and center fielders, lots of demand for Starting Pitching, corner outfielders, 1b, and 2b, and mid-level demand for relievers and catchers.

Needs.....Buyer

C....Mets, Ana, Sea, Minn, Det, TB, Bos

1b...Stl, Pitt, Was, Hou, Sea, Oak, Bos

2b...Chi, Mets, Was, Ana, Tex, KC, Bal, NYY

SS...Mets, Pitt, Oak

3b...SF, Hou, Det, Cle

Lf-Rf...Chi, Was, SF, Hou, Ana, Sea, Tex, Oak, Minn, Bal, TB, Tor

Cf...Stl, Minn, Det, Tor

SP...LAD, Sf, Stl, Chi, Hou, Ana, Tex, KC, Det, Cle, Bal, NYY, TB, Tor, Bos

RP...Chi, Mets, Was, Hou, Sea, Tex, Oak, Det, NYY, Tor

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Now, some discussion at each position when comparing likely sellers and buyers...

C: Lucroy heads this class but he's not necessarily likely to be moved because (1) Mil loves him and (2) his value is down. The rest are uninspiring depth pieces and I could see a team like Anaheim or Tampa moving a low-level minor leaguer to procure a Piersynski, Soto, or Castillo. No real potential fireworks here unless Lucroy is in play, and even then the haul won't be massive.

1b I think Stl and Hou are likely to be the most aggressive here, as they sure could use a left handed bat to pair with the mediocre Reynolds and Carter. The problem for StLouis is Adams returns next year so they likely won't want to take on Laroche's contract, and Milwaukee might be somewhat hesitant to deal Lind within the division. The Cards are likely to pursue Lind first, Bour second. Mike Morse would make a decent platoon partner for Alvarez in Pittsburg. Likely cost would be a solid AA guy for either.

2b Phillips is long in the tooth, mediocre, and expensive, so he either stays put or gets moved as part of the "cost" of Cinci trading Cueto and/or Chapman. And the only likely team with a need at 2b willing/able to take on his contract would be the Yanks, who likely will at least kick the tires on Cueto.

Which leaves Zobrist as the star of the show, but the A's will likely give it 2-3 more weeks before deciding to become sellers or not. That team remains talented and incredibly unlucky, and are just close enough to the wild card that their recent improved performance will give them pause. If he goes, he's likely to land on the Cubs or Nats who have good enough minor league systems to intrigue Beane. Or, in the AL he could be dealt to Texas or the Yanks, both of whom have decent minor leaguers. Beane probably wouldn't be bothered by the traditional taboo of trading within the division.

SS Only the Pirates, Mets and A's have a clear need here among the potential buyers and the pickings are very slim. And so the intrigue must surround Tulo. Of those 3 only the Mets have the likely return chips necessary to land Tulo and they have been rumored to be after Tulo for a while. It'd be bold of Alderson. Considering how good that young rotation is I'd be very tempted to pull the trigger but the Mets don't seem to be beyond their money problems. And Colorado's GM is like Amaro, he grossly overvalues Tulo and other Rockies. 85-90% chance he stays put, but if he goes he likely goes to NYM in a blockbuster. Otherwise, little to no action at this position. A.Ramirez on Chisox is pretty meh, but available.

3b Again, little demand at this position with only the Giants, Astros, Tigers, and Cleveland potential bugyers. The available guys aren't big improvements over the incumbents on those teams though, but I think someone like Uribe or Prado would be fairly attractive to Detoit who is all-in now, no future beyond a small 1-2 year window. The interesting thing will be to watch if Beltre and Plouffe become available at the deadline, in which case Sabean will at least check in. Giants don't have great minor league trade chips to offer though, and Duffy has played great. Little action here, but I think one of the lesser guys gets moved to Detroit.

LF-RF Here, there is a TON of demand and very LITTLE talent available. This will entail a waiting game to see if bigger names like JUpton and Moss become available, but my sleeper trade candidate that nobody is talking about is Reddick on the A's. If those 3 become available I could see the Cubs pursuing Upton since they have the minor leaguers, and the Dodgers going after one of the other guys. In the AL multiple teams will kick the tires on those guys, with Houston leading the charge, maybe Toronto. Both have chips to move.

CF Very little demand here and it's questionable whether Milwaukee would be willing to move Gomez (they should) the clear best-in class. Venable could come for a lower price at the deadline and would be a decent player for the Cardinals. I really doubt that Milwaukee would send Gomez to STl, if at all. They'd likely seek to move him to Min, Det, or Toronto. My call: Gomez stays put, and Venable gets dealt to one of those 4 teams.

DH: Nothing will happen here. The Tigers have a clear need, and Ana and Minn could use upgrades too but Howard and Cruz have prohibitive contracts.

SP Ah, finally we get to the fireworks category. Hamels and Cueto are the prizes, with Samardijzia and Kazmir quality Plan B's. i don't see the Red Sox as the favorites to land Hamels any more since they are in last place and trailing everyone in the East by 5-6 games, but it wouldn't shock me if they nab him. At this point I think LAD, Cubs, and Stl will make a play for him, but that Houston and Texas will want/need him more and be willing to pay a higher price. Rumor has it he won't go to Houston though, but I suspect he'd reconsider if they were still in first by the deadline. Cueto is the one year rental and so he may appeal to teams that lack the money to take on Hamels' contract, but that just jacks his price up all the more. I think he is likely to land in LAD, STL, TOR, or NYY. The teams that don't get Cueto, are likely to net Samardijza or Kazmir.

RP So many bodies, a decent number of buyers who are sabrmetrically savvy enough not to overpay for saves. Relievers always get moved at the deadline but I think the fireworks-level will disappoint.


Overall, I think that this will be an unexciting trade season. There are too many teams still in the hunt, especially in the AL, and not good fitting on positional needs with available talent. The counterpoint is that those few star players who get moved will get moved at a premium.

Dodgers will not cave to Phillies demands, which seem to be unwavering. I think Dodgers go for a mid level guy like Samardjzia or Kazmir. Friedman/Zaidi is not dumb ass Colleti. If it were still Colleti I'd say yes they'll just throw money at the problem, but Freidman doesn't work that way

Add the Mets to the third base list. In fact they'd take a better bat at any of SS, 2b or 3b and mix in what they have with Tejeda heading to the bench and Murphy and Flores fitting the other slots. There is no guarantee that Wrighg is coming back and even if he does whT kind of production they will get. I could also see them looking for a LF as Cuddyer has been a huge disappointment and is likely headed for the DL. There are rumors of a Neise for Ethier swap. They also seem reluctant to bring up Conforto though he's hitting gery well in Binghampton.

I should have added, the only way Hamels comes to the Dodgers is if they are not planning to re-sign Greinke. Then I could see them going after Hamels as a replacement for Greinke and for less money. It's not what I would do (I'd keep Greinke) but I could see the logic to it.

I don't think the Diamondbacks consider themselves sellers and should they ever get over .500, they are like 0-13 in games that would put them at .500 then they will be in the race.

That being said I don't argue with any players you included on your list from them and I won't shed a tear if they traded any of them.

The Diamondbacks as sellers is both a sad and comical concept. They don't have much to sell. Even with the year he's having, Ziegler won't fetch too much. Collmenter and Hellickson will just elicit snickers from buyers, and Jake Lamb sure isn't going to draw much. Peralta might bring some low-level prospects and that's it.

If the Diamondbacks are smart, they'll count their blessings they stole Robbie Ray in the Didi Gregorius trade to add to their fairly talented young rotation of Delgado, Anderson, possibly De La Rosa, and Shipley and Blair when they come up. But unless they foolishly deal one of their mainstays--Goldschmidt ( ), Tomas, or Pollock--I don't see the D-Backs being major sellers of note this year.

Couldn't agree more. They have seemed to overvalue Ziegler since he got here. Mainly because he's been the only guy they could relatively count on in the pen.

They already traded Trumbo for minor leaguers. They know they are sellers

A few minor thoughts on your posts relating to Rangers.

I doubt the Rangers will trade Chirinos. They like him a lot and have very little to fall back on at catcher. If they liked Telis behind the plate he would be in Arlington already as he has hit well at AAA. Rangers really like Chirinos defense and how he handles pitching staff. Might change if they are able to obtain a better option at catcher.

You list Rangers as buyers at second and LF. Not sure there is an opening at either position. Hamilton owns LF for now and Deshields is due back any day. Team turned season around when Deshields started playing every day and leading off. Plus unless they trade Beltre Gallo is going to be next option in LF with Hamilton going to CF. They have stubbornly tried to keep Gallo at third and he wants to play third but I believe his future is in the OF after seeing him every day for a few weeks. In addition I liked Choo a lot more in LF than in RF. If they were inclined to obtain a corner OFer and move Hamilton to CF it would be a much better fit to obtain a RH bat for CF and move Choo back to LF. It might make sense to trade Choo given they have too many LH bats and Deshields figures to get shot at taking leadoff role back when he returns. But that contract probably makes him untradeable. Ditto on Hamilton but not because of what the Rangers are paying him. He is practically free.

Odor has been hitting extremely well since returning from minors and is very young. From all reports he went down with the right attitude, figured out what he was doing wrong, corrected and is now even better than last year. Plus they have Alberto who was gold glove SS in minors last year. And there are other options as well including Profar if he can get healthy for next year. Deshields is also capable of playing second base.

Rangers record/season could go either way between now and the trade deadline. But they believe they have help on the way in Harrison, Holland, and Perez. So I do not think you will see them being sellers. It might make sense to move Choo