The state of the trade market

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STEVE F

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostSun Jul 05, 2015 1:20 am

Hamilton is not capable of playing even a passable CF at this point in his career.
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teamnasty

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostSun Jul 05, 2015 11:47 am

Good Rangers' insights Valen. I list Texas as possible sellers at the deadline only, they are definitely not sellers as July begins. Let's say July 31 approaches and they are still very much in the race. I think they would seek improvements at a corner OF position and 2b, if guys like Zobrist were made available. He'd be a clear short term upgrade over the likes of Odor, Deshields and Hamilton.

I think Texas has a great chance of landing one of the 3-4 pitching Aces if they want to go that route
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l.strether

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostSun Jul 05, 2015 5:05 pm

Valen wrote:Rangers record/season could go either way between now and the trade deadline. But they believe they have help on the way in Harrison, Holland, and Perez. So I do not think you will see them being sellers.

They probably aren't likely sellers, but they could be a great landing spot for Jeff Samardzija. Ruben Amaro reportedly asked for top prospect, C Jorge Alfaro, and #4 prospect, Rf Nomar Mazara--who has looked very impressive in AA--for Hamels...and was turned down. While Daniels would be loath to trade Alfaro, he very well could send Mazara, a player out of a possible list of Of Nick Williams, SP Luis Ortiz, 3b Ryan Rua, and SP Luke Jackson; and a low-level prospect for Samardzija if Daniels felt Samardzija could help the Rangers make the playoffs.

If the Rangers went ahead and signed the Shark to a longterm contract, it would be a solid deal for them. Regardless of that, however, it would be an excellent deal for the Sox, who would receive a solid Of prospect and more for a player they weren't planning to sign.
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Valen

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostMon Jul 06, 2015 12:17 am

I have to disagree about Zobrist being an upgrade over Odor, Deshields, or Hamilton. As noted in spite of the health issues which he may not get past he is still a free player for another 2 years. We definitely have different opinions on Odor. No way I take Zobrist over Odor. Zobrist value lies in his ability to play multiple positions and be a utility player. Odor is superior defensively and offensively on the way up. Zobrist has declining for the 3rd straight season. Odor in the last 15 games has a slash line of 321/373/528. While I do not believe he can keep that up all year, he is much closer to that than what we say in April before he got sent down to straighten things out. Consider his age and still under control at cheap price for 4 more seasons. You build around that type player, not replace them. Expect his average season down the road to be .280 with 20 HRs.

If Steve is right about Hamilton no longer being a viable CF candidate then no way Rangers can benefit from adding a corner OFer. Choo's contract anchors him in lineup. He is not going to be benched and has no trade value. Nobody is going to his contract on unless he got hot and stayed hot. And if that happens Rangers probably keep him and say see, told you he would work out. :lol:

I seriously think Rangers should only consider RH bats that can play CF to push out Martin who has just never turned the corner offensively and catcher. They should consider adding bullpen help if it does not cost them a top prospect. I could see Daniels going after a top starting pitcher. He seems to have a pattern of thinking he has to bring in a rental starter every season. I really am concerned he might be foolish enough to give up Nick Williams or anyone else at Frisco. I really think rest of this season should be let it ride as is and see how close Harrison, Perez, and Holland can return to form. Then they will know what needs to be done rotation wise this winter. If they do well no need for adding another starter. If they fail then you know you need to go out and sign a free agent.

You did a great job for the most part of analyzing all the other teams. Showed effort and thought went in to it. Great thing about the board though is we got people from all over the country watching their home teams and thus more knowledgeable about them than I am. Willing to designate almost anyone more of an expert then me on any team outside of Arlington. :D

So would love to hear what people think. Assuming I am right that team should only pursue RH CF and catcher who are the most likely candidates if they are buyers? And I could see going after mid level bullpen help. Who is most likely available there. That is the part of the equation that is tough to guess on. Middle relievers and setup men almost always catch me by surprise. Never saw the Mike Adams or the Koji trades a few years back.

I know Alfaro is desired by many teams. But he is on DL. How often do injured prospects be traded? Who thinks enough of Alfaro to give up a good established major league player in exchange? Assuming they are sellers and for now ignoring who they might be willing to part with (I think enough of most prospects at Round Rock and Frisco I want none of them going anywhere. So best not to terrorize me by mentioning any of them as trade bait. :lol:

Just looking over your list of potential rentals who might help Rangers: Tulo, Bour, BNyrd, Upton (Daniels has expressed interest in past), Gomez, Francouer, Cruz (will never happen though, Daniels feels Cruz betrayed them).

I don't want them to but I can see them going after Hamels (name recognition to boost fan interest), Cueto, Samardijzia (they tried on him before).

If Rangers become sellers I look for Beltre to be moved. Being sellers would imply giving up on this season. If that is case then bring Gallo back and let him use remaining of season as on the job training. I could see Fielder if the money issues could get worked out. Martin if a team needed defense.
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teamnasty

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostMon Jul 06, 2015 12:39 am

I wasn't suggesting that they give up on Odor past this year, just that Zobrist is a better player than him, Hamilton, and Deshields right now. Which he is. He's also a free agent after this year, so Odor/Hamilton/Deshields could rejoin the starting lineup then. Hamilton is a shell of what he was, not a very good player anymore. Deshields had a hot two weeks and Odor is more potential than finished product. If Texas wants to make a play for 2015 they could use Zobrist and one of the ace pitchers
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Valen

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostMon Jul 06, 2015 10:13 am

I understand where you are coming from. Clearly we have different views on Zobrist and Odor as they are right now. That is cool. That is part of what makes these discussions fun.

I get what you are saying about Rangers being able to return to Odor, Deshields next year. But also have to keep in mind the new CBA rules. Any prospects they have to give up to get Zobrist will be wasted since Zobrist will be a free agent at season end. The new rules do not allow any compensation draft picks for players obtained midseason via trade. And even if they did Rangers would still have to offer a qualifying contract. No way Zobrist is worth that given the 3 year ongoing decline.

Another problem with adding Zobrist is they cannot send Deshields down because he was a rule 5 draft pick. So there would be additional consequences to attempting that. If they send Odor down they still have to make room on the 40 man roster to add Zobrist. That means losing another player they should be keeping. They just designated Feliz and will be losing him, possibly with nothing in return, and adding Zobrist would require another such ill advised move.

That raised the cost of Zobrist to whatever prospects they give up plus whomever they lose in order to make the roster move. All that for a guy who does not figure to give them more than a .270 average and another half dozen homers. Odor can do that. Even if Zobrist got a power boost from Globe Life Park he still is not going to give you enough above what Odor is going to provide to justify the costs. This is especially true of Rangers current situation which is marginal playoff team if everything goes right and rest of division continues to struggle. Rangers have potential for a bright future but only if they leverage the next wave of talent to produce in Arlington or to obtain players who will be around for several years. Any rental players this season would be foolish. It made some sense in the past to do something like that since you could get draft pick compensation. You were often just swapping out prospects that might be worth something in a year or two for prospects that might be worth something in 4 or 5 years. In other words just delaying arrival. But under current rules you are just giving away the future with only the time served by the rental player in return. That rental better guarantee you a world series win or just not worth it now.
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Valen

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostMon Jul 06, 2015 10:20 am

A little surprised Rangers are the only team this topic has generated discussion on. No fans of other teams have any opinions on whether the listed buy/sell possibilities would be good or not?

Looking at your possible players available if Chapman or Kimbrell did come available might be willing to part with a good prospect for them. I think both are controllable beyond this season. Correct me if i am wrong there. And either of those taking over the closer bumps Tolleson to setup and everyone else down one peg which makes the entire pen deeper/better. Do that and maybe add another piece capable of going 2 or more innings and this is a different team with potential.

But I would be surprised if either reliever actually gets traded.
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Valen

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostMon Jul 06, 2015 10:27 am

3b Again, little demand at this position with only the Giants, Astros, Tigers, and Cleveland potential bugyers.

Not saying I like it or want it because Beltre is a personal favorite. But if Rangers become sellers Beltre would be a good fit in Houston. And Houston has a lot of interesting prospects they could offer up.

If sellers only other players on Rangers roster that might be of value to other teams would be Choo, Fielder, Gallardo.
Choo and Fielder both have contracts which will make them difficult to trade. I think Gallardo is on a one year deal which means if they are sellers he almost has to go. Of course if I am wrong and he is on a multi-year deal then he stays. I never trade any pitcher who has shown he can adapt and pitch in Globe Life Park.
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l.strether

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostMon Jul 06, 2015 11:49 am

Valen wrote:Not saying I like it or want it because Beltre is a personal favorite. But if Rangers become sellers Beltre would be a good fit in Houston. And Houston has a lot of interesting prospects they could offer up.

Houston's remaining top prospects are SP Mark Appel, SP Vince Velazquez, SP Micheal Feliz, Of Brett Phillips, 3b Colin Moran, Of Teoscar Hernandez, 1b A.J. Reed, and Of Domingo Santana. It is extremely unlikely Jeff Luhnow is offering up any of them for the senescent Adrian Beltre. After that group, not many of the Astros' prospects qualify as interesting.
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STEVE F

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostMon Jul 06, 2015 12:59 pm

The Dodgers obviously need a SP, how they've held on this long with Bolsinger and Frias is beyond me. It's just hard to predict who they'll go after because Friedman is not the type to just throw money at a problem (although he could)
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