New York's Team of the Future: Yankees or Mets?

Since 1969, the Yankees and Mets have continually vied for the Big Apple's affection. In the 70's Reggie, Thurman, and Craig's formidable Yankee squads caught both local and national attention. In the mid-late 80's, the Mets of Keith, Doc, Mookie and the Kid excited Queens, Seinfeld, and Red Sox haters everywhere. Torre's Jeter-Posada-Rivera led squads re-took the Gotham throne in the late 90's, but this millennium has seen more frustrations for both teams, as middling prospect development and poor personnel choices have kept both mostly mired in mediocrity.

So, in this era of relative wild card disparity, can one of the New York teams reassert itself as perennial competitors as New York's team? To determine this, I'll look at both teams' recent pasts, presents, and lingering futures. First, the Yankees:

All Seinfeld fans know Kramer's list of Steinbrenner's past "sins": Drabek, McGriff, Buhner, McGee--all the prospects Steinbrenner gave away who went on to become solid MLers. Current GM Cashman has been much more prudent, only dealing away mid-range prospects like Melancon, Kennedy, and Jackson for useful players like Granderson. So, the problem lies less in the Yankees giving away top young talent than in a recent inability to draft and develop it. From 2005 to today, the significant talent the Yanks have developed for the big league club consists of Cano, Gardner, Betances, Hughes. and Robertson. Cano (a possible Hall-of-Famer), Betances, and Gardner are all excellent players, and Hughes and Robertson are nice ones, but that is hardly a bounty for a 10-year period. It also pales in comparison to those of top organizations like the Cardinals, Giants, or rival Red Sox. And it has been particularly worse in the last 5 years, as Betances and Adam Warren are the only substantial products from that period among disappointing prospects like Mason Williams, Tyler Austin, and Manny Banuelos...who was ill-advisedly traded away to Atlanta.

Despite that lack of development, the Yanks currently find themselves on top of the AL East, more due to the current mediocre state of the division than their being a dominant team. They're benefiting from solid comeback seasons from A-Rod, McCann, and Teixeira; an outstanding season from Gardner; who is now their best player; and a standout hard-throwing bullpen moored by Miller, Betances, Wilson, and Shreve.The problem with this team is they are old and their future rotation is questionable.. A-Rod and Beltran aren't long for this baseball world, Teixeira will be a declining 36 next year, McCann is a beat-up 36-yr old in a 32-yr old's body, and the 32-year old Ellsbury has clearly left his power in Boston. As to the rotation, Pineda is a solid #2-3 innings-eater, and Warren looks like a solid mid-rotation guy, but the rest are questionable. Sabathia is on a steep decline; Eovaldi, who has lucked into 9 wins, is getting hit like a pinata to a .302 Avg, and Tanaka is a bewildering, frustrating mystery whose immense talent is well-matched by his formidable fragility.

So, what promise does the Yanks' minor league system hold for their future? A few major bright spots and many other question marks. Rf Aaron Judge and Sp Luis Severino are legitimate blue chip prospects. Judge, a gargantuan right fielder with power, an outstanding batting eye, and a solid arm, was just promoted to AAA and should replace Beltran next year. Severino, like most smallish hard-throwing Rhers, has been compared to Pedro Martinez, has the talent of a future ace, and is currently dominating AAA. The next few are not as clear:

1. Jorge Mateo, SS. Raw but athletically gifted, his speed, power potential, and erratic defense elicits Reyes comparisons. A long way away, though.
2. Greg Bird, 1b. A first baseman with moderate power who isn't showing it this year. A poor replacement for Teixiera, and MT aint that great.
3. Gary Sanchez, C. Big, powerful, a cannon arm, and with a questionable make-up, he could replace McCann in 2017 if he gets his act together.

Which brings us to the Mets: Outside of the Wright-Beltran-Delgado-led teams of 2006-08, the new millennium hasn't been kind to the Mets. The reign of Omar Minaya was marked by poor player development, a mediocre trade record, and a very embarrassing Tony Bernazard debacle. While Minaya's early trades--for Delgado, Maine, and Perez--were successes--he began a habit of sending out solid players like Heath Bell, Keppinger, and Vargas, while failing to acquire needed major talent. Even worse, after Wright, the Mets didn't develop many under Minaya. Chavez, Pelfrey, Davis, and Parnell are all nice players, but they are not an excellent development bounty for a 6-year period.

And while the Alderson years have been more successful, they have had their own clouds...particularly the Madoff-Wilpon one. A Harvard Law graduate, Alderson is undoubtedly a smarter and more skilled trader than Minaya. Despite some errors like the Pagan-for-Torres trade, he has elevated the Mets on two swindles alone: swiping Zack Wheeler for 1/2 a year of Beltran, and swindling Noah Syndergaard and Travis D'arnaud for the aged R.A. Dickey. Together with the home-grown Harvey, DeGrom, and Matz, the Mets could have the best 5-man rotation--made up of all #1's and #2's--in MLB for years to come. The problem is Alderson, the Wilpons, or both seem content with that, and don't seem to want to make the moves needed to advance to the next step.

The Alderson-Wilpon combo has been pretty horrid in their free-agent approaches. When your greatest free agent success is Bartolo Colon, you know you have problems. Their signings have ranged from overspending for the mediocre (Granderson) to spending cheaply for the mediocre (Cuddyer) to paying practically nothing for practically nothing (Rauch, Francisco, Marcum, Young). The A-W combo have made it clear they will not spend or trade for substantial offensive help...and they need that help. The Mets offense is anemic. At C, D'arnaud makes Tulo look sturdy and Plawecki looks lost. Duda is a 4th best hitter on a good team who can't hit lefties, Murphy is a UT on a good team, Wright is the residue of his old self, Granderson is competing with Duda for team strikeout lead, and Cuddyer is refining mediocrity into art.

Some help will come from their farm system, but it won't be enough. Their best prospect now is clearly Micheal Conforto, their 1st round pick last year from Oregon State. But while Conforto is a fine prospect who should take over Lf next year, he is not, by himself, a game-changer. An excellent hitter, his power is still considered average--as are his D and arm--and his speed is below average. So, the Mets can basically expect Corey Dickerson with some more upside...which isn't isn't bad at all. The rest have question marks.

1. Brando Nimmo, Cf. A scouts and press darling for years, Nimmo is still a big bag of tools looking for production. Considering his power tool still hasn't shown itself after four years, it remains to be seen how much better he is going to be than Nieuwhenheis or Nate McLouth.
2. Gavin Cecchini, Ss. An ex 1st-rounder and a defensive whiz tearing it up in AA, Cecchini is the Mets' future shortstop, perhaps sometime next year. However, he is still not a +offensive player and will not provide the Mets their needed offense.
3. Dominic Smith, 1b. Another ex-first rounder, Smith is smooth in the field and at the plate but almost refuses to drive the ball. If his non-existent power doesn't develop, he'll just be Casey Kotchman at best and Travis Ishikawa at worst...not the help the Mets need.

Conclusion: So, who is NY's team of the future? If the Mets want it and make the moves they can, they are, but they have to sign or acquire some expensive position players. The perfect player for them, Justin Upton, is a free agent this year, and it's time for them to spend as compatible with their market. Other players like Span and Cespedes would definitely help as well. If they can't land them, then they should spend big on Zimmerman or Price and trade one (or even two) of their big 5 for some major offensive help. And whether or not the Mets spend, the Yankees will. So, if they don't, the Yankees, their free agent help, and their influx of young talent will continue to be New York's team for years to come.

Speaking as a Mets fan, they will continue to play second fiddle to the Yanks, because their owners are buffoons, and worse yet seemingly broke and or penny pinching buffoons. The Yanks will do what they always do, spend their way to being competitive, once they are out from under the albatross that is A-rod's salary. The Mets on the other hand are going to try and cheapskate their way into any fortune they get and cry poverty all while trying to deny that the Madoff scandal had any bearing on their day to day operations. They have a HUGE surplus of starting pitching, you mentioned the 5 youngsters and didn't even talk about Montero, Neise, and youngster Gsellman. Surely somebody would like one of the big 5, which they can afford to move with the depth they have so they can go get an impact bat. But that likely means giving up cost control and/or paying a big contract which since Madoff they've been adverse too.
It PAINS me to say it, but every ture Mets fan knows that unless ownership changes, the Mets will always be the after thought team in New York, because even if they catch lightning in a bottle and win it all, their owners will find a way to screw it up and they won't sustain it.

Speaking as a Mets fan, they will continue to play second fiddle to the Yanks, because their owners are buffoons, and worse yet seemingly broke and or penny pinching buffoons...They have a HUGE surplus of starting pitching, you mentioned the 5 youngsters and didn't even talk about Montero, Neise, and youngster Gsellman. Surely somebody would like one of the big 5, which they can afford to move with the depth they have so they can go get an impact bat.

I definitely share your low esteem for the current Mets' ownership, although yours is decidedly lower and more passionately felt than mine. It doesn't change my view though that the Mets have the greater potential for extended future success. They may just need new ownership to achieve it.

As to Montero, Niese, and Gsellman, I didn't mention them because nobody is going to give up much for any of them. Montero doesn't throw very hard, gets injured, and is a future 4th starter at best. Niese is and has been a mediocre back-end-rotation starter. And Gsellman was the Mets #30 prospect entering this year, doesn't throw very hard, and isn't doing that great at Binghamton. So, as I noted earlier, the Mets are going to have to trade one (if not two) of their big 5 if they are going to get some substantial offensive help in return.

Apparently strether didn't read Niner's post because he didn't suggest they trade Montero, Neise or Gsellman at all. He suggested trading one of the starting 5 for a hitter and replacing that SP with one of these 3 pitchers.

Apparently strether didn't read Niner's post because he didn't suggest they trade Montero, Neise or Gsellman at all. He suggested trading one of the starting 5 for a hitter and replacing that SP with one of these 3 pitchers.

I knew you'd come onto my thread to only make a negative comment about me, Randi, which says so much about you. So, I read your erroneous venom. Niners critiqued my referencing the top 5 and not the three he named. Since my referencing those top 5 was substantially to reference solid trade bait, my leaving those three off was because they weren't solid trade bait. So, my explanation for not including them was a valid response to Niners' post.

Now, go back to ignoreland. I won't read any more of your posts on this thread.

Sorry Strether, it may look like the Mets are a no brainer for long term success but I've seen this movie before. To paraphrase what my sister-in-law likes to say about my 20 year old nephew who is highly intelligent( studying for his engineering degree), athletically gifted ( playing baseball for Penn state on scholarship) and very handsome ( his girlfriend looks like she could be a model for Victoria's Secret):

"It's all laid out perfectly just waiting for them to screw it up".

If there is one thing this ownership has shown it's an uncanny knack of not learning from their mistakes.

Much as I don't want them too, much as I'd like to hope you're right, I've just seen them screw things up time again to often to not see the handwriting on the wall.

I never came close to saying they were a "no-brainer for long-term success," so I have no idea why you said that. I also gave an extensive analysis of the Mets franchise for the last ten years and its present state. What did you think of it? Any significant agreements or disagreements with any of it?


P.s. Why the interest in Gsellman? Fulmer, Mazzoni, and Molina are all widely considered superior pitching prospects.

I never came close to saying they were a "no-brainer for long-term success," so I have no idea why you said that. I also gave an extensive analysis of the Mets franchise for the last ten years and its present state. What did you think of it? Any significant agreements or disagreements with any of it?

Perhaps I overstated your position in an effort to let you know just how badly I'm convinced the Mets ownership will screw it up, apologies.

As for you analysis, it's all very salient and cogent don't really disagree with any of it. My only point, and it's a small one and one you did reference but I gave more support for, is with the starting pitching depth they have, Neise, Montero Gselleman and Wheeler, it would be borderline criminAl of them not to go get an impact bat by plugging Neise in this year and moving one of the big 5.

Hell i'm of the opinion that they should move one of Harvey, Syndergaard or Matz to go get Tulo. They have depth at SS in the minors Ceccini, Reynolds to name just two, that they could pair with one of the pitchers to make this happen but I know Tulo's contract is the sticking point. They are terrified of another Jason Bay deal, it's that simple.

Neise is a perfectly serviceable fifth starter, he's likely even a better fourth than most teams have.

The division is ripe for the taking of they'd just pull the trigger but it won't happen cause agin hey are terrified of his contract. If the Yanks were in the same position this deal would have happened weeks ago.

Fortune favors the bold, and the 'Mets are not bold.

Well, we're pretty much all in agreement there. And you are absolutely right; the Mets are and have been anything but bold.

Didn't see your PS until after I posted. Gsellman has been mentioned very favorably in several of the Mets online bloggers reports. He's apparently wellined by the organization and has been on a bit of a fast track. He's "a pitcher" not just a thrower. So nothing overpowering but three plus pitches that he mixes well.

At least these are the reports I've read