The state of the trade market

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teamnasty

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostTue Jul 28, 2015 1:23 am

An exception doesn't disprove the rule, plus Miller was having a much better year in '14 than Clippard is in '15, so the comparison is inapt.
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teamnasty

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostTue Jul 28, 2015 1:35 am

And your assessment of Meisner is too negative. Kiley at fangraphs protects him as a back rotation starter within 2-4 years which is a nice return for 1/2 a season of Clippard and his 4.89bb/9IP walk rate. Keith Law says Meisner has #2 upside, so the analyst consensus is rosier on Meisner than you are.
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l.strether

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostTue Jul 28, 2015 1:41 am

teamnasty wrote:An exception doesn't disprove the rule, plus Miller was having a much better year in '14 than Clippard is in '15, so the comparison is inapt.

You haven't established that rule exists, so that "exception" just shows your statement about the value of one-inning relievers was incorrect. Also, Miller wasn't having a "much better year," he was having a better year than Clippard who is also having an excellent year. So, even if he couldn't net a jackpot like Rodriguez, he could definitely have netted a better prospect than Meisner; there' a lot of difference in quality between the two players.

So, my comparison was perfectly apt.
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l.strether

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostTue Jul 28, 2015 1:43 am

teamnasty wrote:And your assessment of Meisner is too negative. Kiley at fangraphs protects him as a back rotation starter within 2-4 years which is a nice return for 1/2 a season of Clippard and his 4.89bb/9IP walk rate. Keith Law says Meisner has #2 upside, so the analyst consensus is rosier on Meisner than you are.

No, it isn't, I'm going entirely on Baseball America's analysis of him, and they know a thing or two about him. They only ranked him as the Mets' 21st prospect, and this is what they said:

"Meisner's 6-foot-7 stature helps differentiate him from the plethora of other prep righthanders in the system. His tall, lanky frame and feel for the strike zone made him a target for the Mets in the 2013 draft, despite regular velocity readings in the high 80s as a Cypress Woods High senior. They invested a third-round pick and $500,000 to sign him. Meisner throws steeply downhill with tight rotation on his pitches, pitching at 90-92 mph and topping out at 94 with his fastball in pro ball. The Mets say his high- 70s curveball has become a real weapon, projecting to at least average. Only teammate Marcos Molina had more strikeouts than Meisner (67) in the short-season New York-Penn League in 2014. He throws a below-average changeup at present, and the development of that pitch probably will dictate his future role. Meisner will head to low Class A Savannah in 2015, with the chance to become a No. 4 starter, unless one of his pitches takes a giant leap forward."

That hardly sounds like a #2 starter.
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LMBombers

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostTue Jul 28, 2015 6:32 am

Apparently the prior poster isn't "apt" enough to read the posts he is attempting to debunk. teamnasty claimed Meisner projects to a back of the roation pitcher which means a #4 or #5. stretcher claims he said a #2 SP. Hardly the same thing.
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pwootten

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostTue Jul 28, 2015 8:35 am

l.strether wrote:
pwootten wrote:Lamb wasn't held in high regard, and I'm not sure why.

I touched on that earlier:
l.strether wrote: Lamb is a bit of a wild-card. 5 years ago, he was one of their top prospects as a hard-throwing lefty with dazzling stuff. But he blew out his elbow in 2011, and his slow recovery lowered him to "suspect." However, he has come back nicely this year, dominating at AAA Omaha and could be a solid back-end starter for the Reds.

So, while he's not a top prospect anymore, he does still rest at 89-93 mph regularly, can still hit 95, and has produced a 2.67 ERA and 1.16 whip in AAA. So, Baseball America still considers him a legitimate future #4-#5 starter. That's hardly the high past expectations of him, but it's certainly respectable.


My observation is based more on the words and actions of the Royals. On a local radio show, Ned Yost wouldn't add Lamb's name to the mix when discussing who would take fifth spot in the rotation after Vargas went down for the season. Even when asked specifically about Lamb, Ned stopped short of saying he would be considered.

Also, despite a number of injuries and periods of ineffectiveness among starters, Lamb remained parked in Omaha while lesser pitchers like Aaron Brooks and Johan Pino were promoted. Part of the reasoning could have been to keep Lamb's value high. I hope he does well for the Reds.
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Ninersphan

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostTue Jul 28, 2015 9:46 am

l.strether wrote:
teamnasty wrote:And your assessment of Meisner is too negative. Kiley at fangraphs protects him as a back rotation starter within 2-4 years which is a nice return for 1/2 a season of Clippard and his 4.89bb/9IP walk rate. Keith Law says Meisner has #2 upside, so the analyst consensus is rosier on Meisner than you are.

No, it isn't, I'm going entirely on Baseball America's analysis of him, and they know a thing or two about him. They only ranked him as the Mets' 21st prospect, and this is what they said:

"Meisner's 6-foot-7 stature helps differentiate him from the plethora of other prep righthanders in the system. His tall, lanky frame and feel for the strike zone made him a target for the Mets in the 2013 draft, despite regular velocity readings in the high 80s as a Cypress Woods High senior. They invested a third-round pick and $500,000 to sign him. Meisner throws steeply downhill with tight rotation on his pitches, pitching at 90-92 mph and topping out at 94 with his fastball in pro ball. The Mets say his high- 70s curveball has become a real weapon, projecting to at least average. Only teammate Marcos Molina had more strikeouts than Meisner (67) in the short-season New York-Penn League in 2014. He throws a below-average changeup at present, and the development of that pitch probably will dictate his future role. Meisner will head to low Class A Savannah in 2015, with the chance to become a No. 4 starter, unless one of his pitches takes a giant leap forward."

That hardly sounds like a #2 starter.


When was that evaluation written? There's a chance you are both right. If it was a pre season evaluation of Meisner by BA, it's possible that he's performed better than expected. One of the Mets blog sites which covers the teAm and their minors everyday had him ranked as the mets number 8 prospect currently. And somewhere in the 20's at the start of the season. Now I'm not saying that a blog is necessarily better at predicting prospects than BA, but evaluations are always moving targets depending on when/where you are getting your information you could have vastly different opinions.
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toronto50

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostTue Jul 28, 2015 10:02 am

Tulowitzki for Reyes!
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Ninersphan

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostTue Jul 28, 2015 10:13 am

toronto50 wrote:Tulowitzki for Reyes!

Little bit more than that more like the Rocks get two young arms Jeff Hoffman and Miguel Castro and a couple of years salary relief (Reyes deal isn't as long as Tulo's) and a guy to play SS for a year or two in Reyes, for Tulo. It will be interesting to see if they hang onto Reyes or try and deL him away as well considering he is actually making more this year then Tulo is.
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teamnasty

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostTue Jul 28, 2015 10:33 am

Even baseball America projects Meisner to be a #4, which would be a great return for half a year of Clippard. They aren't the only game in town though when it comes to prospect evaluation, nor even the best.

Cheerio lads.

"Firstly, I never said that...

Second, as I said before therefore I'm right once again...

Etc etc
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