Why I hate this game!!!

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FRANKMANSUETO

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Why I hate this game!!!

PostMon Jul 27, 2015 6:41 am

I guess the randomizer for pitcher column rolls was stuck on 6. Check the top of the 9th. :twisted:

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/game/427190/755
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coyote303

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Re: Why I hate this game!!!

PostMon Jul 27, 2015 11:46 am

I know this won't be much consolation, but the odds of rolling the same column four times in a row aren't as bad as you might think.

The odds are 1/1 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/216. That's the same odds as rolling a 1-2 on a hitter's card.

The odds of rolling a specific column goes up to 1/1296. However, I gave the odds for rolling any column four times in a row.

On the other hand, it's no consolation at all if you want the odds of rolling specifically four 6-7 or 6-8s in a row:

(11/216)^4

That is approximately 1 chance in 150,000.
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FALCON29

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Re: Why I hate this game!!!

PostMon Jul 27, 2015 2:12 pm

coyote303 wrote:I know this won't be much consolation, but the odds of rolling the same column four times in a row aren't as bad as you might think.

The odds are 1/1 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/216. That's the same odds as rolling a 1-2 on a hitter's card.

The odds of rolling a specific column goes up to 1/1296. However, I gave the odds for rolling any column four times in a row.

On the other hand, it's no consolation at all if you want the odds of rolling specifically four 6-7 or 6-8s in a row:

(11/216)^4

That is approximately 1 chance in 150,000.


"So you're telling me there's a chance... YEAH!"
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l.strether

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Re: Why I hate this game!!!

PostMon Jul 27, 2015 2:31 pm

I'm not sure why repetitious "dice rolls" still surprise or bother people. If the system is working right, the 6 result has as much chance to repeat as it does to subsequently produce any of the other 5 numbers. So a repetition--like a repeated 6--is no less of a likely result than 6, 2, 5, 4....or some other non repeating string of results. As to the 2-12 results, 7 and 8 are obviously more likely results than others, so their repetition should be even less surprising.
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wavygravy2k

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Re: Why I hate this game!!!

PostMon Jul 27, 2015 4:37 pm

I think it's human nature to groan whenever the dice rolls the wrong way. I hate this game too - for various reasons.
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poolman

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Re: Why I hate this game!!!

PostTue Jul 28, 2015 7:58 pm

ugg, what are the odds? trying to stage a late comeback the other night I had my offense face 11 straight ab's on the pitchers card. the odds were something like 2000/1 against it. I got 1 hit out of the 11 ab's.
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l.strether

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Re: Why I hate this game!!!

PostTue Jul 28, 2015 9:00 pm

poolman wrote:ugg, what are the odds? trying to stage a late comeback the other night I had my offense face 11 straight ab's on the pitchers card. the odds were something like 2000/1 against it. I got 1 hit out of the 11 ab's.

Is that really the odds? I haven't worked out the continuation of 50/50 over an extended string like 1-11 since high school, but I'm not sure it's that outlandish. Maybe a math person like MARCPELLETIER can figure it out.
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freeman

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Re: Why I hate this game!!!

PostTue Jul 28, 2015 10:40 pm

(1/2)11=.00048=.048%. 100/.048=2,083

1 in 2083
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blue turtle

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Re: Why I hate this game!!!

PostWed Jul 29, 2015 1:59 pm

I thought 2,048, but since I counted this up using fingers and toes, I can't show my work.
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freeman

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Re: Why I hate this game!!!

PostWed Jul 29, 2015 2:06 pm

Rounding differences probably. Same ballpark.
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