John's blog on base stealing

I just read the weekly blog. I am a little confused about where the 13 comes from.

Let's use Mike Trout's card as an example: *5/- (19-6).

This means when the computer attempts to steal with Trout it will first 'roll' two dice to see if he achieves a good lead. If the 'roll' is a 5 he achieves the good lead and will automatically attempt to steal 2nd base with a safe chance of 19 +/- the catcher's arm and pitcher's hold ratings and then minus 2 for being held on base. If the 'roll' is not a 5, the computer re-evaluates whether or not to attempt a steal with a safe chance of 13 +/- the catcher's arm and pitcher's hold ratings and then minus 4 for being held on base.

This is an error. The number should be 6, not 13.

Perhaps John subtracted 6 from 19 (19-6 rating), but this makes no sense since better base stealers have a higher second number.

EDIT: added second paragraph.

I think he made a mistake, the 13 should be a 6. Here are the board game rules for super advanced stealing.


Stealing Second Base

Stealing second base is achieved by tolling two 6-sided dice and one 20-sided die and referring to the set of supplementary stealing numbers located at the top of the player card following the advanced steal rating of the would-be basestealer and the Balk & Pickoff Rule. An example of possible supplementary stealing system numbers may be found below.

*8-10/11,12 (19-14)

After the offense declares his intention to steal, he would first roll all three dice (One 20-sided and two 6-sided) If a roll of 3-20 on the 20-sided die occurs continue with the normal steal sequence (re-rolling the 20-sided die if a steal is actually attempted). If a 1 or 2 is rolled on the 20-sided die you would refer to the Balk/Pickoff Rule (see below).

The set of numbers (numbers preceding slash) indicate a player's chance of establishing a good lead. The second set of numbers (numbers following slash and before parenthesis) pertain to the runner's out stealing range. The third set of numbers (number in parenthesis) are the player's steal rating numbers. If the dice roll results fall within the first set of numbers, in the example 8-10 (8,9 or 10), the runner has established a good lead and MUST steal. If the dice roll result falls within the second set of numbers (in the example, 11 or 12) the runner is automatically out stealing. If the dice roll value is not included in either the first two sets of numbers (good lead numbers or out stealing numbers), 2-7 in the example, the baserunner has failed to establish a good lead and this is not a MUST attempt steal situation.

If the baserunner established a good lead, the defense decides whether to contest the stolen base, If the defense decides not to contest the stolen base, the base is stolen and no other action is needed. If the defense decides to attempt to throw the runner out, roll the 20-sided die and refer to the first rating in parenthesis (in the example, 19) found on the baserunner's card. If the roll is between 1 and 19 the baserunner successfully stole second base. If the roll is 20, he was thrown out attempting to steal.

If the baserunner failed to establish a good lead, the offensive manager may reverse his decision and not steal, However, if the manager still prefers a steal attempt, refer to the second rating number in parenthesis, in this example 14. If the 20-die roll is from 1 to 14 the runner is safe. If the roll is 15-20, the runner is out stealing,

When using either rating number, first add together the catcher's throwing arm rating and the pitcher's hold rating (found at the top of the pitcher's card), The total of the two numbers must not exceed the range of -5 to +5. For example, if the catcher's throwing rating was -3 and the pitcher's hold rating was -4, the total of -7 would be reduced to -5 . However, if the runner is "held on" subtract from the prior total the following, an additional -2 when using the first rating and -4 when using the second rating number. THIS NUMBER MAY NOT EXCEED -5. In order to demonstrate the entire calculation assume the following: the runner being held on, assume a catcher's throwing arm rating of -4 and a pitcher's hold rating of -3. If the dice roll total was 8 (two six-sided dice), the baserunner established a good lead and must steal. First total together the catcher' a throwing arm rating (-4) and the pitcher's hold rating (-3). Since (-7) is greater than the maximum deduction , reduce to (-5). Then subtract (-2). His chances for a successful steal would be 1-12 [19 + (-5) + (-2) = 12], If the initial dice roll was 5, the baserunner did not get a good lead. If the offensive manager still wanted to attempt a steal of second, his chances would be 1-5 [14 + (-5) + (-4)=5]. IF THE BASERUNNER IS NOT HELD ON, THE SAFE STEAL RATING (NUMBER IN PARENTHESIS) MAY EXCEED 20, IF A RUNNER IS HELD ON, THE MAXIMUM RANGE IS 1-19,


Of course, maybe the online game made an adjustment since we can't decide to NOT steal on a bad lead....?

Sorry coyote, we posted at the same time....

Sorry coyote, we posted at the same time....

No need to apologize. You gave a better response, backing up your reply. Thanks!

The 13 coming from 19-6 is as good a theory as any. Can you imagine though the riot that will break out if it turns out that is how the computer calculation has been being done? Think I am calling a construction crew out first thing in the morning to start that bomb shelter been thinking about putting in the back yard.