The Chicago Cubs: Theo Epstein's New Masterpiece

The century-long Curse of the Billy Goat could be reaching its end. Cubs President, Theo Epstein, and his close confidante GM Jed Hoyer have turned the Cubs into legitimate contenders on the brink of title contention. In a mere four years, they have turned a barren joke of a franchise into a competitive organization bustling with young talent on the big league club and in the minors.

How did Epstein manage this so fast? It was the culmination and manifestation of Epstein's positive and negative experiences in Boston, ones he's put to excellent use in Chicago. Despite winning two titles in his hometown, Epstein was never fully happy in Boston. Schooled in analytic/statistical approaches by Billy Beane and Paul DePodesta, Epstein never clicked with the prickly Red Sox president Larry Lucchino and his old-school and publicity-oriented approaches, which led to a temporary resignation in 2005. Regardless of those difficulties, Epstein still succeeded in rebuilding a deflated franchise leading to two BoSox championships. He did so through shrewd trades and FA acquisitions and outstanding drafting.

So, Epstein knew how to build a successful team, but the Cubs, and his ex-assistant/now GM Jed Hoyer, allowed him to completely oversee his vision as team president; there would be no Lucchino looking over his shoulder. And he has rebuilt the Cubs as he rebuilt the Red Sox: through savvy trades, incisive drafting, and a sound development plan. As to his trades, they are clearly finalized and primarily formulated by Hoyer, but Hoyer and Epstein share a close friendship and trust allowing them to work together on personnel moves with a synergy Epstein and Lucchino decidedly lacked. Both of them have been particularly savvy in acquiring talent undervalued by their trading partners. Some of the greatest examples have been:

1. Sp Andrew Cashner for 1b Anthony Rizzo and Sp Zach Cates. Epstein and Hoyer beautifully bought low on Anthony Rizzo, who is now both their best player and the centerpiece of their rebuilding. Rizzo had had a horrid rookie "season" and caused new GM Josh Byrnes (another Epstein protege) to fear Rizzo's approach wouldn't fit Petco as well as contact-oriented Yonder Alonso. The trade has been an absolute swindle as Rizzo has become one of the best 1bmen in the league, and Cashner and his poor command remain mired in mediocrity.

2. Sp Scott Feldman and C Steve Clevenger to the Orioles for Sp Jake Arrieta and Rp Pedro Strop. Epstein admittedly signed the journeyman Feldman to a 1-yr contract, hoping to flip him for greater value by the trading deadline. That's exactly what he did. Unexpectedly finding themselves in contention and needing starting pitching, they traded the talented Arrieta--of whose poor command they had grown tired--and the hard throwing-but-wild Strop for Feldman. Arrieta has found his command in Chicago and has been their ace the last two seasons. Strop has also found himself and has become a key member of CHC's bullpen with a 1.02 Whip in his three seasons there. Feldman went 5-6 and signed with Houston in the off-season.

3. Sp Jeff Samardzija and Sp Jason Hammel to Oakland for Ss Addison Russell, Of Billy McKinney, and Sp Dan Straily. E & H (Epstein & Hoyer) repeated their Feldman experiment by signing Hammel for one year hoping to flip him as well. When Billy Beane asked for Hammel and #2 starter Samardzija in his quest for his ring, they felt confident asking for the bank...and they got it. Not only did they acquire extremely talented (and BA top-ten prospect) Russell, they also acquired sweet swinging Of McKinney, the A's 1st rd pick the previous year. Russell, has acquitted himself well at 2b in the glove and at the plate, and has replaced Castro as the Cubs' Ss. The Lh McKinney shined at AA, has been promoted to AAA and will create an enviable Of overcrowding "problem" with the recent arrival of hitter-extraordinaire Kyle Schwarber.

4. Sp Ryan Dempster to the Rangers for 3b Carlos Villanueva and Sp Kyle Hendricks. While Villanueva, the original centerpiece of the trade has faded, Hendricks has surprised to be a Mid-rotation mainstay for the Cubs. An extremely smart ex-8th rounder from Dartmouth, Hendricks' low radar readings led the Rangers to undervalue him, while the command-and-control valuing E & H jumped at acquiring him. Considering they later stole C.J. Edwards and Justin Grimm from Texas for Matt Garza, they should arrange yearly meetings with Jon Daniels.

Epstein and Hoyer have also overseen an excellent drafting and signing period emphasizing performance and skills over raw tools, OBP and hitting skills over raw tools, and pitching command and repertoire over raw radar-gun heat. That approach has netted:

Sp Pierce Johnson. One of their top pitching prospects, the hard-throwing Johnson has mid-rotation potential and is currently dominating in AA

3b Kris Bryant. Expected to pick a Sp with the #2 pick in the 2013 draft, they wisely chose this smooth, powerful hitter who has held his own in his rookie season and has shown promise of much more to come.

C-Lf Kyle Schwarber. Many thought E&H had over-drafted Schwarber at #4 last year. However, he has gone on to crush minor and major-league pitching showing a hitting approach, batting eye, and short swing possibly superior to Bryant's. The only question is whether he can play Catcher (his favorite position) or will need to move to Lf. He's playing both positions for the Cubs so far and shining at the plate.

Ss Gleyber Torres. The young, toolsy Venezelan joins Russell, Castro, and Javier Baez in the Cubs' deep cache of talented young shortstops. Torres, who is producing a .307/.365/..399 line with 21 sbs could be the best pure hitter of them all and gives the Cubs an enviable bounty.

So, that has left the Cubs in the successful position they are in now, 16 games over .500 and holding the second Wild Card slot. However, they can and should be even better in future years, and most of the contributors to that future success are in place. Two fixtures in the infield are already set. In 1b Rizzo and 3b Bryant they have a potent, powerful 3-4 hitter combo for years to come. And while Russell has slumped recently, his power, hitting tool, and defense are going to be a plus whether he plays 2b or Ss. However, after a breakout season, Castro has regressed offensively and defensively and has been supplanted at Ss by Russell. He's been moved to 2b, but could be eventually replaced by this year's 1st rounder, talented hitter Ian Happ. Montero is clearly a stopgap catcher, and if Schwarber can't catch well enough, they may have to trade one of their young infielders or McKinney for one or possibly sign Matt Wieters (an Epstein fave).

The outfield is also a question mark. Chris Coghlan is certainly not their Lf of the future. If Schwarber doesn't catch, Lf is his. He is arguably the best hitter in the Cubs system and should be one of the best hitters in MLB soon. If McKinney can improve his routes, his somewhat above-average range and below-average arm could function in Cf. If his considerable hitting skills play in the majors, that would still be an improvement over the anemic Dexter Fowler. Jorge Soler, however, has gone from late-season sensation to enigma in Rf. While still playing his excellent defense and displaying his cannon arm, his hitting and (particularly) power development have seemed to stop, if not reversed. If he is going to keep the position, 5 hrs in 310ABS and a batting line of ..268/.326/.381 isn't going to cut it. With the powerful Baez showing improvement in Iowa, he could be a viable option.

Which leaves the Cubs pitching. In Arrieta and Jon Lester, they are well set at the 1 and 2 slots. Lester struggled early, but he has recently turned it around and showed exactly why CHC signed him. Hammel has been outstanding this year, with a remarkable 1.04 Whip, and well anchors the middle of the rotation. Kyle Hendricks is another excellent middle rotation starter with his excellent command & control...which leaves spot #5. Considering Epstein knows pitching--particular pitchability pitchers like Hammel and Hendricks--can go south at any time, he will definitely be interested in Zimmerman, Price, Kazmir, or Gallardo the top free agent pitchers this year. If not, he will hope either Pierce Johnson or C.J. Edwards fill the role. The electric Edwards has missed this year, but has the best stuff in the system and could be ready by 2017. And with Hector Rondon successfully filling the closer positions, and Russell, Motte, Grimm (another TEX import) and Strop, they also have a strong bullpen for years to come.

So, after only 4 years, Epstein has taken a barren, unsuccessful Cubs organization and turned it into a legitimate contender rife with young talent and showing promise for greater things. Having already conquered the curse of the Babe, he looks well-primed to overcome the Curse of the Billy Goat

Good read. Not gonna disagree with anything, that, would just cause an argument of opinions...

My only disparaging remark may be no mention of the greatest (yes, my opinion) thinking manager of my genre. To not mention Madden working wonders with the pieces that higher management gave him, could be construed as blasphemy to some. (Those of us Madden fans that grew up half an hour from his hometown of Hazleton PA.)

Note; As everyone has probably noticed, Kyle Schwarber has literally been killing the ball, temporarily (and likely permanently) supplanting Anthony Rizzo as the best hitter on the team. In 31 games and 103 ABs, he has produced a staggering .330/.420/.661 line with 8 home runs and 25 rbis, which is almost an exact match for his minor league numbers. He also has been playing both catcher and left field, with Maddon finding his catching defensed passable. If he can improve his defense there a bit and stay there, he could become the Cubs' greatest catcher of the modern era. If not, he looks like a perennial batting champ contender with 25-30 hr potential. Considering many thought Epstein overdrafted him at #4 last year, Epstein has to be really smiling...like the rest of Cubs fans today.


P.s. Micheal Grammes, I saw your pink bar. If you left me a friendly and/or complimentary post, I thank you. If you left a derogatory one, I forgive you.

How can one person have so many people he dislikes so much that he claims to block them? Mike, You can be sure he read your post and saw that you actually sort of complimented him so he had no nasty retort. He also claims to block me but he apparently can't help himself from posting snarky replies.

Kyle Schwarber has literally been killing the ball. He could become the Cubs' greatest catcher of the modern era.

Is saying that Kyle Schwarber may one day be better than Jody Davis, a career .251 hitter with moderate power really that impressive?

How can one person have so many people he dislikes so much that he claims to block them? Mike, You can be sure he read your post and saw that you actually sort of complimented him so he had no nasty retort. He also claims to block me but he apparently can't help himself from posting snarky replies.

Kyle Schwarber has literally been killing the ball. He could become the Cubs' greatest catcher of the modern era.

Is saying that Kyle Schwarber may one day be better than Jody Davis, a career .251 hitter with moderate power really that impressive?

Gabby Hartnett, no? I suppose it depends on what one defines "the modern era."

When I think Cubs' catcher, I always think Randy Hundley. Okay, not much bat, but someone you want calling a game.

Bill

Firstly, thanks for the suggestions for great modern Cubs catchers.

As to what defines the "Modern" era of baseball, there are competing definitions. The one I've always agreed with is Post-WWII. It's when, (for the most part) Blacks were playing; it's when home runs became a standard part of the game; it's when Baseball fully became an industry; and it's when baseball mostly fully became what it is today as well. So, I wouldn't include Hartnett among the Cubs' Modern era catchers.

That being said, many see the Modern Era starting at 1900, so Hartnett would definitely qualify under that definition. So, while Schwarber will never be the defensive whiz Hartnett was--he most likely will be an average defensive catcher at best--he does have the potential to be the superior offensive player...even though Hartnett was a substantial offensive player himself.

As to Hundley, there is no doubt he was a solid all-around defensive and offensive catcher...one of the best in Cubs history. But Schwarber legitimately has the potential to produce .300/.400/.550-.650 lines, with 25-30 hrs and 100 rbis yearly for years. So, if he stays at catcher for many years, he should easily top Hundley as their best modern (post-WWII) catcher.

He's already been a huge factor in the Cubs' recent resurgence and 9-game winning streak, filling up the 2-spot in the line-up for them beautifully.

But Schwarber legitimately has the potential to produce .300/.400/.550-.650 lines, with 25-30 hrs and 10 rbis for years.

You have to be kidding right? Only 20 players with over 3,000 pa's have a career ops over .950 and you saying someone with 110 ab's is already at that level? Take a deep breath and stop drinking the koolaid.

You have to be kidding right? Only 20 players with over 3,000 pa's have a career ops over .950 and you saying someone with 110 ab's is already at that level? Take a deep breath and stop drinking the koolaid.

Take a breath yourself, Stoney. and calm down. Most of us are having a polite discussion about Schwarber and the Cubs. Apparently you're not capable of that. And thanks for your extremely rude response...after many of your other rude responses to me. You just gave a solid example of why I put people on ignore. I have no more time for continually rude and/or hostile posters, particularly on a non-contentious thread about baseball.

As to Schwarber, I didn't "drink any kool-aid"...what a tired, childish phrase. Schwarber may not quite meet those slugging numbers, but he does have the legitimate potential to produce .300/.400/.500-.600 lines. He's that good of a hitting prospect. If you don't believe me, this is his scouting report from Baseball America:

As a sophomore, Schwarber led Indiana to the 2013 College World Series, leading the first Big Ten Conference team to Omaha since Barry Larkin's 1984 Michigan club. The Cubs drafted him fourth overall in 2014, signing him for a $3.125 million bonus that was nearly $1.5 million below slot, savings the Cubs passed on to pitchers. Then Schwarber destroyed pro pitching in his debut, hitting 19 home runs (counting the playoffs) over three levels. He has thick, strong legs and swings from the ground up, incorporating his powerful lower half to deliver plus power with a short, furious, lefthanded stroke. He keeps his hands back and has the strength to hit the ball out to any part of the park. He has some movement in his load, a timing mechanism that may cause him issues going forward, but he has the savvy to adjust and has a .300-hitting, 30-homer ceiling.

That's not my opinion; it's the scouting report of pretty much the top minor league/college baseball publication in the country. So go take up your "kool-aid" argument with them. So, you and me are done Stoney. As I said above, I no longer tolerate hostility or continual rudeness, which means you can join Micheal Grammes and Randi on ignore...

I don't imagine the amount of new persons joining Strat-o-matic Online is very high but for those who are new I sure hope they don't find these forums and wonder what the heck a 'Pink Bar' is!