NLD 39 - Yep, still going strong

If anyone can spare a few hitter dice rolls, let me know.

We're pretty 50/50 so none to spare here.

Won another series Gained another game on NP. Let's keep it going boys!

Spider, interesting stats, but, given the quality of the pitching in the league, it's hard to know if you've had tough luck or that's the norm in the league. Maybe you could do a few more teams (like mine ) and see?

Aaaarrrgh! Smyly no hits Braumeisters for 9 innings, gives up two HRs in the 10th, my guys score two to tie, then RPs lose another 1-runner.

we just don't ever give up. Good game, spider.

The league is starting to reveal a bit more balance than last seasons. Nice to see a tight race in more than one division

Joe, well I took the bait and ran my nums for your team through 90 games. First I expect you are correct that I haven't factored in the "tougher" pitching - since I use Dean's estimates for hitting off of pitchers' cards - and I expect they are for $80 M leagues.

Anyway, my model calculated 371 runs for you - and that's what you scored - can't claim the model is that good, but it was only off 1 or 2 for my team. My model shows your defense giving up 28 run and your actual unearned runs are 25 (again closer than I expected).

Here's what I show for your team (with my guesses at starters and primary subs vs. l and r) sum of hitting and fielding:

Name Expected Calculated Diff
Wieters 23.4 25.7 +2.2
Rosario 12.3 7.7 -4.6
Laroche 36.5 28.0 +8.5
Butler 13.9 6.4 - 7.6
Cano 41.8 33.2 -8.7
Gosselin 1.0 1.0 -0.1
Harrison 40.7 46.5 +5.9
Prado 10.1 5.1 -5.0
Aybar 26.0 24.4 -1.6
Escobar 10.3 19.8 +9.4
De Aza 21.1 13.9 -7.2
Gomez 38.2 49.6 + 11.2
Betts 35.8 38.8 +3.0
Werth 34.2 34.2 0.0

Total is +5.6 runs gained by hitter/fielders.

Spider, super interesting. I'll have to spend some time analyzing it, but the first thing that popped into my head was whether it takes into account the park. Having a 17 single park is going to help our averages. Given that we don't have a lot of bp hrs I'm not sure that the 1-4 HRs make a lot of difference.

What do you think?

Joe, when I calculate the "expected" number, I use the avereage park THAT team will play in for the year. Also I try to estimate the average L/R % each team will face (starters only). So your team mix was 10.4/10.0/5.1/5.4 and 24.6% lefty. My BY pitching mix was 7.5/5.7/7.4/6.2 and 18.0% lefty.

Joe, when I calculate the "expected" number, I use the avereage park THAT team will play in for the year. Also I try to estimate the average L/R % each team will face (starters only). So your team mix was 10.4/10.0/5.1/5.4 and 24.6% lefty. My BY pitching mix was 7.5/5.7/7.4/6.2 and 18.0% lefty.

Ok, well, then, I'm not sure what to say. It's hard to believe I'm out performing my numbers when I have 5 guys who hit > .290 last year and I have ZERO hitting over that now. And, this is in a 1-17 home park for singles.

I think I know why we're struggling of late, our offense has not been as good as it was earlier.

Then again, I guess we're second in runs, third in average (at .256? really?) Second in OB and OPS and fifth in slugging. I guess the pitching is really good in this league.

Maybe it's our pitching/defense which is virtually tied for 7th. Blah. We just need too time things better I think. Or maybe we're just not as good as we looked early in the season. <shrug> Time will tell. Will need to overcome a 15 gamer to Weiters right now.

A very quiet league so far.

I will be posting ratings tonight.

Some observations for now:

Semper is much worse than the ratings. Niners is much better.

JTJ's offense should be better.

Semper and Spider should be pitching better.

East is the best division in terms of average rating.

all for now.

A very quiet league so far.

I will be posting ratings tonight.

Some observations for now:

Semper is much worse than the ratings. Niners is much better.

JTJ's offense should be better.

Semper and Spider should be pitching better.

East is the best division in terms of average rating.

all for now.

Check my defensive stats, I think they are at least partially responsible for my record to this point. I'm one or two in nearly every defensive category.

A very quiet league so far.

I will be posting ratings tonight.

Some observations for now:

Semper is much worse than the ratings. Niners is much better.

JTJ's offense should be better.

Semper and Spider should be pitching better.

East is the best division in terms of average rating.

all for now.

Check my defensive stats, I think they are at least partially responsible for my record to this point. I'm one or two in nearly every defensive category.

Niners, your defense is good, fourth in the league and Spider is pretty much tied with you for fourth.

You're over performing mostly on offense. Probably due to the extra games you're getting out of Tulo. Pretty much even on D