NLD 39 - Yep, still going strong

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Team...   O...   P...   F..   P+F.   Ovrl   Div
Stoney.   7476   4286   148   4434   3042   E
SemperG   7373   4258   82   4340   3033   E
Smokey.   7830   4474   418   4892   2938   W
JoeTJet   8040   4676   464   5140   2900   C
Dale...   7875   4602   397   4999   2877   E
BigAlrc   7163   4228   76   4303   2860   W
Gbrooke   7861   4482   692   5174   2687   W
Spider.   7594   4699   215   4915   2680   C
Niners.   7497   4758   194   4952   2545   C
nythawk   7920   4600   810   5410   2511   E
ArrylTr   7694   4875   719   5594   2100   C
MG.....   7411   4861   526   5387   2024   W


First of all, the top six teams are all pretty darn close without much to separate them. The next four are also roughly equivalent and the bottom two are the bottom two.

Ratings would say that the East is a three team race with Hawk an also-ran and Dale more in the race for the WC than for first.

The Central should be JTJ's, but NP and Spider aren't *that* far back.

In the West, Smokey is at the top, but Big A is very close and GB in a dark horse role.

In reality?

East is pretty much dead on.

Central, where JTJ's pathetic slide into oblivion has continued, NP is surprising, but then again, Tulo has played MORE games for him already than he played all of last year for Colorado. My calcs would say he'd get ~110 games I guess he's only got 14 left the rest of the year. JTJ had a great start, in line with his rating, but he has just collapsed since. Spider and AT are about right. After 66 games, JTJ had a .621 winning P (41-25). In the 63 games since? 23-40 for a rousing .365 pct. That's a 59 win pace. I really don't think this team is THIS bad. Doubt it was a .600 team, but closer to that than 59 wins. I'm hoping that team returns, but it doesn't seem likely. Got swept again tonight.

West GB is surprising and Smokey is underperforming. Big A isn't a surprise. Although I have to say, strong d teams don't always pan out (see Semper for an example) it is working for Big A.

Overall

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Team Ov   Ovrl   Rtg   Rec   Dif   
Stoney.   3042   2   4   -2   E
SemperG   3033   2   7   -5   E
Smokey.   2938   3   6   -3   W
JoeTJet   2900   4   7   -3   C
Dale...   2877   4   7   -3   E
BigAlrc   2860   4   3   1   W
Gbrooke   2687   6   6   0   W
Spider.   2680   6   8   -2   C
Niners.   2545   7   3   4   C
nythawk   2511   7   10   -3   E
ArrylTr   2100   10   11   -1   C
MG.....   2024   11   8   3   W


Semper is way below, Niners is way above. Intestingly, MG should be closer to AT and Hawk. Part of that is due to the roster changes he has made. He's down 8.5 mil.

Offense

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Team Of   O   Rtg   Run   Dif   
JoeTJet   8040   1   5   -4   C
nythawk   7920   3   7   -4   E
Dale...   7875   4   5   -1   E
Gbrooke   7861   4   3   1   W
Smokey.   7830   5   6   -1   W
ArrylTr   7694   7   8   -1   C
Spider.   7594   8   5   3   C
Niners.   7497   9   6   3   C
Stoney.   7476   9   8   1   E
MG.....   7411   10   8   2   W
SemperG   7373   10   10   0   E
BigAlrc   7163   12   12   0   W


JTJ and Hawk are not scoring runs as the ratings would expect. Spider and Niners are scoring more than expected. others are pretty close.

D

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Team PF   P+F   Rtg   Run   Dif   
BigAlrc   4303   2   2   0   W
SemperG   4340   2   6   -4   E
Stoney.   4434   3   2   1   E
Smokey.   4892   6   8   -2   W
Spider.   4915   6   9   -3   C
Niners.   4952   6   4   2   C
Dale...   4999   8   9   -1   E
JoeTJet   5140   8   9   -1   C
Gbrooke   5174   10   9   1   W
MG.....   5387   10   8   2   W
nythawk   5410   10   8   2   E
ArrylTr   5594   12   9   3   C


On D, Semper is way worse than expected and Spider should also be better. AT is probably a little bit better. The rest are pretty close.

Fielding

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Fieldng   FRt
BigAlrc   76
SemperG   82
Stoney.   148
Niners.   194
Spider.   215
Dale...   397
Smokey.   418
JoeTJet   464
MG.....   526
Gbrooke   692
ArrylTr   719
nythawk   810


I haven't gone through the X charts yet so you'll have to compare on your own for now.

My pitching "D" is killing me. Also, Kemp and Rizzo are much worse than expected (didn't expect much from Kemp, but he's worse). I've ignored pitching "D" in team construction and I'm learning that it has much more impact than expected. "X" opportunities are about the same as for outfielders on this team and ~ 30% of my errors have been made by pitchers.

Joe, really interesting! Thanks!

As you noted, the Moose are tracking along according to your analysis fairly closely, for hitting, pitching and fielding. I was actually appalled at the fielding page for my team on the actual game stats - and then I reminded myself that I have Altuve at second base and Santana at shortstop.

I just decided to beef up my bullpen. I used the drop of Chris Coghlan to do that. I think I had gone a little too far in terms of having redundant players to go along with my high injury ratings. Anyway, I'm taking a chance that I won't run out of batters and fielders. I think I've been a little lucky overall so far with injuries. Hiring the extra medical staff and trainers must have paid off.

The bullpen moves were partly motivated by Pomeranz getting injured for 15 games. Strat was showing Machi being the starter. I didn't think it was a good idea to have Machi start 3 games in place of Pomeranz. As it was, without Machi, Hal called upon Cecil to start. He got 4 1/3 good innings, then O'Day pitched another 3 good innings, so that worked out really well the first time through Pomeranz' start in the rotation.

Joe, sorry I caused you some misery last night, especially 2 more 1 run wins for me.

So you're saying I have a pretty good team?

Tried to build a high BA/doubles team and it's turned out better than I thought. Was a little concerned with Dale & Hawk's hitting parks but with Semper in the division and most ballparks leaning neutral/pitching I thought I could get away with it. Pitching has turned out much better than I expected. Low errors, good OF arms and success stopping the running game have been strengths.

One interesting thing. I've never thought much about clutch since it seems like it only comes up 10-15 times a season. With a high BA/doubles team I've had 31 clutch opportunities already. Unfortunately 30 of those turned to outs. Not sure I'd replace any of the main offenders based on their other skills but interesting to see.

My pitching "D" is killing me. Also, Kemp and Rizzo are much worse than expected (didn't expect much from Kemp, but he's worse). I've ignored pitching "D" in team construction and I'm learning that it has much more impact than expected. "X" opportunities are about the same as for outfielders on this team and ~ 30% of my errors have been made by pitchers.

yeah, I don't take pitcher D into account at all. Maybe I should.

Joe, really interesting! Thanks!

Glad you like it!

As you noted, the Moose are tracking along according to your analysis fairly closely, for hitting, pitching and fielding. I was actually appalled at the fielding page for my team on the actual game stats - and then I reminded myself that I have Altuve at second base and Santana at shortstop.

What's really amazing is that there are two teams worse than you in fielding!

I just decided to beef up my bullpen. I used the drop of Chris Coghlan to do that. I think I had gone a little too far in terms of having redundant players to go along with my high injury ratings. Anyway, I'm taking a chance that I won't run out of batters and fielders. I think I've been a little lucky overall so far with injuries. Hiring the extra medical staff and trainers must have paid off.

Haven't done the luck factor yet. Not sure I'll get the time before the league ends. We'll see. Your ratings are *after* your moves however.

Joe, sorry I caused you some misery last night, especially 2 more 1 run wins for me.

We're actually pretty used to it over the past three weeks. Been a brutal stretch. The Biggest thing is that I was only 2 back of the WC before you swept. Winning at least one for us was critical.

So you're saying I have a pretty good team?

Tried to build a high BA/doubles team and it's turned out better than I thought. Was a little concerned with Dale & Hawk's hitting parks but with Semper in the division and most ballparks leaning neutral/pitching I thought I could get away with it. Pitching has turned out much better than I expected. Low errors, good OF arms and success stopping the running game have been strengths.

One interesting thing. I've never thought much about clutch since it seems like it only comes up 10-15 times a season. With a high BA/doubles team I've had 31 clutch opportunities already. Unfortunately 30 of those turned to outs. Not sure I'd replace any of the main offenders based on their other skills but interesting to see.

yeah, your rating puts you right where you are for sure. Your pitching/D are your strength, but you've scored enough runs too.

Joe, thanks for mentioning that the ratings are after the moves. I was wondering. Quick work on your part!

Joe, thanks for mentioning that the ratings are after the moves. I was wondering. Quick work on your part!

Actually, it was just fluky timing. You made the moves before I got to it. I was meaning to do it over the weekend, but didn't get to it so.....

Just the way it worked out.

I am not a numbers and pythagoras guy, so can't say much to the ratings other than it must have been a ton of work and I am thankful you did that, JTJ. Am just happy that my plan works.