Ortiz 500 HR = HOF?

David Ortiz has had a career essentially equal in value to Torii Hunter. I like Hunter but Ortiz has better career so far.

David Ortiz has had a career slightly less valuable than Mark Teixeria. Tex started out as a Ranger. Hard not to root for him still. But he has regressed as a hitter in NY compared to what I expected early in career. Projecting his future based on last couple years have to take Ortiz over Tex.

David Ortiz has had a less valuable career than Chase Utley. Utley had a nice few years, especially for a second baseman but the injuries derailed career somewhat. I would have to take Ortiz here as well.

David Ortiz has had a substantially weaker career than Carlos Beltran. I am a fan of Beltran. Have a fascination for the whole 40/40 thing. But health has took away the speed. I would probably take Beltran over Ortiz.
Weaker yes, but not substantially weaker.

Bottom line if all 5 of these players retired at end of this year 5 years from now Ortiz is the only one I would consider putting on my ballot.

Another factor in Ortiz favor is he is only showing slight signs of slowing down. He has actually had a better season this year than last year. So when he retires and becomes eligible we are probably going to be looking at someone in the mid 500s in HRs or maybe even the 600 level.

Let's provoke some discussion with a few assertions.

David Ortiz has had a career essentially equal in value to Torii Hunter.
David Ortiz has had a career slightly less valuable than Mark Teixeria.
David Ortiz has had a less valuable career than Chase Utley.
David Ortiz has had a substantially weaker career than Carlos Beltran.

If you see Papi as a HOFer how about the assertions above, and do you see those other 4 as HOFers?

Even if it is as unfair as the coastal effect, Ortiz gets in before any of these listed (well, depending on when each retires, I suppose).

Fielding is so rarely represented in the Hall, and considering that when/if Ortiz played the field, is position was perhaps the least important/least difficult position in the game.

"Utley had a nice few years, especially for a second baseman".

A few nice years? His five year stretch from 2005-2009 is one of the greatest 5 year stretches of all time, at any position. The rest of his career he was "merely" well above-average pretty much every single year. There's not a single sabrmetric ranking system that doesn't have him about 15 wins above Papi over the course of their careers. .365 obp .480 slug with Gold glove defense and top 20- base running is a historic player. And he had postseason accomplishments too.

"Ortiz playing DH most of career equates to an average fielder with a defensive WAR of 0 is how I think about it. He does not help or hurt your team fielding-wise."

You're absolutely entitled to your view no doubt, but it's equally clear that there isn't a single sabrmetric outfit that agrees with you, from Bill James on down. Ortiz doesn't even play much in NL inter league games his defense is so bad. I love the guy, and think he has a borderline HOF case even though i believe he falls short. But defense matters a ton, and the inability to play the weakest position on the field better than the likes of Mike Napoli is a huge limitation on his game. Whereas being able to play gold glove D at a premium position like 2b like Utley has while being a devastating hitter to boot, is a player unhinged from limitation.

Then there's Beltran, with his .355/.490 obp/slug career line to go with gold glove defense and sterling base running in centerfield. And he's been even better than Papi in the postseason as hard as that is to believe. In over 250 plate appearances Beltran has a .445 obp.683 slugging. That's Lou Gehrig level performance across his entire postseason career. Incredible.

Someone brought up Jeff Kent , one of my favorites all time. Overall value is fairly comparable to Papi in many ways, probably a scootch better based on peak value and position. Loved that guy, he and Bonds rivaled all 1-2 combos in history with the exception of Ruth Gehrig.

I know Tex played GG caliber D, but at 1b so maybe not quite such a big deal?

This is one area I would like to see a change in Strat. Great D in strat at first base may not be critical. But a first baseman like Tex who can pick balls thrown a little short or stretch to get an off target throw while staying on the base can save his infielders errors. For Strat matters not on stuff like that whether a guy is a 1 or a 5 at first. But matters a lot in real life.

Having said that though it is my observation except for the occasional super exceptional defender like Ozzie defense usually does not matter. At best for most it is considered a tiebreaker by HOF voters.

Breaking the Curse will do that!

Agree or not how important to that Ortiz was the media will give him much credit for that. Cannot be overlooked in this discussion.

"Ortiz playing DH most of career equates to an average fielder with a defensive WAR of 0 is how I think about it.

An interesting point of view. I think when I was in the camp of no DH ever for MVP or HOF I went a step beyond this. I estimated what the defensive contribution would have been without the DH rule forcing the player to put on a glove and play full time. So I would put this question out for discussion. If Ortiz had been forced to play his entire career at first base what would his defensive WAR have been? Positive? 0? Negative? I suppose since he plays first for interleague play one could take his numbers in those games and prorate them to a full season of 150 games. I say 150 to account for some injuries that might be possible if he were playing full time.

Then there's Beltran, with his .355/.490 obp/slug career line to go with gold glove defense and sterling base running in centerfield. And he's been even better than Papi in the postseason as hard as that is to believe. In over 250 plate appearances Beltran has a .445 obp.683 slugging. That's Lou Gehrig level performance across his entire postseason career. Incredible.

Good points on Beltran. Suppose my memory has been damaged by what I have seen in recent years. I sometimes forget how good he was defensively when fully healthy. Have to backtrack a little and put Beltran ahead of Papi.

While backtracking should also clarify. I do not have the problem with Ortiz getting voted in that I once did based on him being a DH. If though I had a vote gut feeling is I would not put him on my ballot. But if I had to bet my hard earned money on whether he gets voted in that is different. Given the love affair the media has for Ortiz I do not see any way he fails to get voted in. And like it or not that could pave the way for other DHs to get more consideration.

I suppose as long as we are having friendly discussion what if Ortiz has 3 more years of 30 HRs left in him? What if he reaches 600 which is a more exclusive club. Would that change the mind of anyone?