Help explain this collapse

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/league/427559

My team, the Elysville Elite Giants sat in 1st place nearly 20 games over .500 with less than 30 games left in the season. We were +100 in runs scored and seemed well positioned in the playoff run. Then the next 29 games happened. Over that stretch we went 6-23 with a -58 run differential, losing 11 games by 1-2 runs or in extra innings (we went 1-6 in one run and extra inning games).

Bad luck? Or are their hackers in my league? [place tinfoil hat emoticon here]

Sociophil

It doesn't appear you have 3 ex-Cubs on your team so the "Cub Factor" (3 or more ex-Cubs on your roster and your team is doomed to failure) wouldn't seem to come into play.

you r in hilltop and the other teams have great rhsps to throw against your all rhb lineup. hilltop also gives up singles to the lhbs from other teams so the 2 vulnerables in Hilltop are being exploited. but in reality your suffering from the HAL auto- correct and bad dice.

I don't have any great analysis. What I can say is "oof!" That is a tough end to a season.

One factor that rarely gets discussed in late season collapses is what did your division mates do? What changes did they make near the transaction deadline? I know on teams where I think I have a chance and am not playing a limiting theme I focus on 2 things as I approach 140 games.

First, changes I might need to tailor team to take on the first place team (or the second place if I am in first).
Second, do I need to make any changes in anticipation of who I may meet in playoffs. But optimizing my matchups against division foes is consdierable priority. If you were resting because of how well you had done or not wanting to break what is not broke other teams can make adjustments to improve against you while you do not make corresponding adjustments. End result a reversal of fortune. Of course there is the flip side of that where you could make changes reacting to other team's moves and mess up your chemistry. Sometimes difficult to know exactly what to do or not do.

It is even worse than you stated --- 4-20 last 24 games---no one in your division made a move all year--so the division opponents made no moves to account for this collapse.

The winning team was only 3 or so back when this collapse started, so he had a nice team that probably would have taken the division even if you had played .500 to close out last 24 games.

There really is no logical explanation. All I can say is you are not alone and collapses happen. It happens more often than it does in actual MLB play it seems to me.

I had a rash of late season collapses with my division leading teams for well over a year, so often that I just started expecting it to happen.

None of mine were this extreme and sudden though, mine usually started around game 90 to 100. My worst one took me from a 14 game lead over the 2nd place team to 7 games back. They were so far up they still managed to get the wildcard, but got swept in four as the collapse just kept going into the post-season.

Then, suddenly, last 3 months I was the beneficiary of other teams collapsing in this manner and my teams winning at a .700 clip. I have no clue why. These owners that seem to win 90+ games with most all their teams just astonish me.

Over the season, things tend to even out. Had this team (below) start 3-15, then fall to as low as 25-49. Went on a 34-18 tear to basically be tied for the worst record in the league. Now sitting at 65-76, so 40-27, from the point of our nadir. I suppose a collapse is a collapse, but having been on both sides of this thing ow (never had a team start THAT poorly and finish that strong) I'd rather have been in it from the get-go then faltered, than have to play .750 ball to even shout at .500.
Here's what I'm faced with--let's say current WC team (the inverse of my record), plays a bit under .500 the best of the way, say, 85 wins (9-12 down the stretch). I would need a 21-0 run to pass them. But wait--suppose they go 5-16 (finishing at 81-81)? Well, now that's different. I would then need "only" a 17-4 run to pass them. :-/

I feel for you, man (that was a HORRID collapse, truly). But, at least you had DREAMS at one time!


http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1408896

Only thing I can see is that, IMO, the two teams that finished ahead of you have slightly better rosters and match up better than you and may have been underperforming earlier in the season. Your late struggles against the Islanders are a bit more mysterious, but that's probably the HAL part of things.

Was it possible that Heinie Zimmerman persuaded several teammates to tank the last 1/3 of the season?

Really, your division finished in the order of run differential, so maybe that's just the way it was supposed to be. I think you might have sacrificed one of the RH power bats for another on-base guy. I think you might have replaced your Suttles-Galarraga platoon for Greenberg and another upgrade. Ignoring your platoons, your composite lineup balance was 6L. Really? In Hilltop? 6R would have been better, especially since there were only 3 LH starters in your division.

On the pitching side, your two relievers with the most innings had ERA's of 6.34 and 8.88 respectively, while the worst ERA among the rest of your bullpen was 5.70. That should have been fixed early in the season. I am also not a fan of using the R(1) relievers at caps below $200 million. Much better to use a quality reliever with a higher endurance rating and make sure he gets the lion's share of the bullpen innings even if he's not your closer. You were 31-27 against lefties and 51-53 against righties, you aren't going to do well in one-way hitters' parks if you can't beat enemy pitchers from that side.

As to why you had such a good record in the first 130 games and collapsed down the stretch, I have no idea. All I can say is that it seems like your team ended up about where it should have, to me.

Collapses happen, here is what my team is going through:

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/schedule/1409012

Since game 102 they have gone 8-23, I thought this team was surely gonna make the finals for almost 2/3 of the year... now I'm not so sure.

Mike