Board game vs online game probabilities...

I noticed when getting into the online leagues,... that when the season ends you can look at the breakdowns how the "roll" of the dice went for each player. Why is almost every player if not ever player close to that 50 50 mark? Shouldn't there be some of your players that might get a 80%-20 split, or even a 70-30 split once in awhile?

I know HAL has to make it fair I suppose for each card and team, but playing the board game there could be a 3 game series lets say, and one of my hitters gets the "roll" 1-3, 90% of that series. I am not sure if I like the online version of basically the 50 50 outcome, or like the board game with the chance of not getting an equal roll for each card the entire season.

I would almost like to try a board game season that you can split the rolls in half like the online version, and see if the results would be more accurate the way the players stats might be. Has anyone tried that? It would be a mess to figure out but it might be more realistic? Any thoughts? Thanks

Bruce327

My understanding is that the on-line version does "simulate" the dice roll for probabilities. Over the course of a 162 game season the numbers may come in a range around 50-50, but still with variation. Early in the season, or as with your short series example, the roll ratio will vary more than later in the season. A 16 hit/5 pitch was the furthest off 50/50 that I found on a recent team, but I am sure others have more extreme examples. Caveat: I am not a statistician or play one on TV.

I'm sure there are plenty of 3 game series where one of the hitters gets the "roll" 1-3, 90% of that series. Through six games, I have Alvin Davis with a 14-6 rolls favoring the hitter, while Ellis Valentine is 7-18 in favor of the Pitchers. But that's a small sample size like the 3 game series example.

162 games, however, is a massive sample size, where game after game the rolls are moving to the mean of 50/50.
If you played 162 games and kept up with each roll as to whether it was on the pitcher's card or Hitter's card, you would find generally the same probabilities as the online game.

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162 games, however, is a massive sample size, where game after game the rolls are moving to the mean of 50/50.
If you played 162 games and kept up with each roll as to whether it was on the pitcher's card or Hitter's card, you would find generally the same probabilities as the online game.

Andy is correct. There is nothing different about dice rolls between to online game versus the board game. This is simple mathematics/probability at work.