Catcher Defense Impact

I saw there was a discussion of catcher defense on the old forums, but I thought I'd share a bit of the effect catcher defense can have on teams. I'm currently in a '70s league that has played 96 games so far. My team, with Johnny Bench behind the plate, has given up only four passed balls and 23 stolen bases so far (and at least one passed ball and a few stolen bases occurred when Bench was hurt). Another team, with Cliff Johnson and John Wockenfuss sharing duties behind the plate, has given up 17 passed balls and 78 stolen bases. I'm not sure how much offense Johnson and Wockenfuss would have to generate to compensate for that many extra bases and at a minimum putting runners in scoring position, but it would have to be a lot, I suspect. And Bench's (-4) throwing arm minimizes the impact of a pitching staff with mediocre to poor hold ratings. Other teams don't even bother to try to run. Anyway, I hope this provides food for thought.

Dennis,

Interesting data. How about caught stealing?

Marc,

Since we played last night, the data is now for 99 games:

Bench (and Herrmann a few games) - 4 passed balls, 24 steals, 12 caught stealing

Johnson and Wockenfuss - 17 passed balls, 80 steals, 42 caught stealing

So the percentage for stolen bases is actually slightly higher for Bench and Herrmann (.667 vs. .656), but in 99 games opponents have tried to steal only 36 bases, compared with 122 steal attempts against Johnson and Wockenfuss.

What I'm focused on is between the passed balls and actual steals, Johnson and Wockenfuss have given up 69 more bases (assuming only one runner on base during passed balls) in 99 games, and each of these bases has at least put a runner in scoring position.

I shared the data because I think it's easy to assume there won't be much impact on having mediocre to poor catching so an owner/manager should always go for the big bat, but poor defense takes a toll over time. Same holds true for other positions as well, particularly up the middle.

In watching games, I'm always aware of plays when no error is recorded (a double play not turned, a hit that gets counted against a pitcher, etc.) but a good defense would have recorded an extra out. The toll that takes on pitchers for having to make extra pitches (and under greater stress) can really add up.

I'd like to think the value of catcher defense vs. offense is reflected in the salary of the player. If Earl Williams and Steve Yeager are valued equally, this tells me that Williams subpar defense compared to Yeager is, perhaps, compensated for, by his superior offense (assuming you get average mystery versions of said players). So, while there's no disagreement that a big bat catcher with poor defense can hurt your team in the ways you've described, you can always compensate elsewhere at another position. Throw in another variable that the versions of the mystery cards make a player more or less valuable than expected, then, all of a sudden that big bat catcher may, indeed, be a better value than the stellar-defense, weak-hitting catcher.

I have some data to share too, just don't have my computer right now...

To come back to Dennis' example, if you assume that 1CS is worth 2 SB, the benefits of having Bench arm didn't pay much in this example... Actually I would take 2 CS over 5 SB if you ask me...unless you play in Petco or some other extreme small-ball stadium.

In my opinion, the most underrated defensive tool in a catcher's rating is not the arm, but the fielder rating because of the blocking plate rule....The success rate of harpooning a runner at homeplate varies by 8% between a 1-rating and a 5-rating...that's 6 runs for 100 throws, plus the runs you save by getting 6 additional outs in highly critical situations, with runners on board..

Edit..I meant of course 8 runs per 100 throws at the plate btw 1 and 5, or 6 runs btw a 1 and a 4.

I promised some data for catchers...

A few years ago, Dean C. who wrote the "offense vs defense" latest version, used the CD-ROM to create some simulations. For these simulations, he used a team that had good pitching and good defense (a team that was allowing 650 runs per season), so perhaps his results would not be exactly reproduced in other contexts. In any case, the thread is here if you want to read the whole thing, but I'll give below the main results:

http://forum.onlinegames.strat-o-matic. ... 7&start=20

C range 1: -13 runs
C range 3 (original): 0 ....so a 20 run difference from range-1 to range-5
C range 5: +7 runs

C arm -2: -10 runs
C arm +1 (original): 0...so a 18 run difference from arm -2 to arm +4
C arm +4: +8 runs

My own analysis of the best information I could get, from downloading seasons and going through the rules, I don't believe that catchers as much impact as Dean came up with.

Starting with catcher's defensive rating, my estimation is that going from a 5-rated catcher to a 1-rated catcher improves a team by 11 runs.

And going from a -2 arm/hold combination to +4 improves a team by 9-10 runs.

My data are almost at half mark of what Dean got.

How one can explain the discrepancy? Dean based his analysis on one specific team, and I know that team was the New York Mets (not sure which season), so I guess he probably used season that reproduced real-life leagues (30-team leagues). As for my results, they were mostly based on 80M 12-team leagues--so context is different.

Did Dean exactly reproduce the settings that are used in online games? Or it could be that the stats I based on have errors, and I misinterpreted them. Hard to tell.

If I get into more specifics.

Catchers' arm get value from two distinct ways.

The first is they influence the total of stolen bases and caught stealings.

My formulas predict that teams with very bad positive arm/hold rating, whose combination is near +4, would have on average 146 sb allowed and 51 cs.

A typical team with a combined arm/hold rating close to +4
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1402988
that team saw opponents get 150 sb and 64 cs

The same formulas predict that teams with excellent arm/hold rating, say -3, would have allowed on average 31 sb and 13 cs. Here two typical teams with a combined arm/hold somewhere between -3 and -4
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1404524
that team saw opponents get 27 sb and 10 cs
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1405371
that team saw opponents get 27 sb and 14 cs

So as you seen, a team with very bad arm/hold combination will have much more sb, but it will generate much more caught stealings. This is similar to the results that was presented in the beginning of this thread.

There is a second way by which an excellent arm influences the game, and this is much specific to STRAT. Most players are being held at first base by STRAT, but in certain circumstances, with a strong negative catcher's arm, the incentive to steal becomes so low that holding the runner to first base becomes meaningless. And the impact of not holding a runner is huge: the oldtimers would say that it prevents gbA+ from becoming a single, as most of you know, in the super-advanced game, holding a runner has an impact on the defensive charts, a ss-1 (or a 2b-1) becomes basically a ss-4 (or a 2nd-4) but with still double-plays capabilities. Without holding the runner, the defensive player gets restored to his ss-1.

I believe that a third of the catcher's arm's value is derived from this capacity of not holding some runners.

The value of the catchers' range is equally derived from the catcher's blocking rule and the plays on the defensive charts. I believe that an excellent catcher induces roughly 10 more outfield assists than a poor defensive catcher because of the blocking rules. This is much lower than I expected, and I believe it's probably the result of Hal's being too cautious to throw at home.

Of course, T-rating, pb, and errors can also affect the defensive value of a catcher, and despite the fact that they have less impact than the range or the arm, in some extreme case, they can diminish greatly the defensive value of a catcher. Maldonado, for example, despite his excellent c-2(-2), is 65th best defensive because of an atrocious e16 and T-20.

I won't surprise anyone by listing down Molina as the best defensive catcher. He saves roughly 15 runs per game compared to a regular catcher. Molina is also a good value, according to my ratings. When I include his defensive value, my estimated salary for him is 3.99M, so almost 0.75M better than his actual salary.

Here is my listing of catchers ranked by defensive quality. I just noticed that a I forgot to make a last-minute adjustment to put my estimated salary for catchers roughly equal to those of STRAT (right now, most catchers are bust rather than bargains, so I need to make an adjustment to get them roughly comparable to SOM...this might also affect injury-prone players, who thus appear slightly better bargains than what they actually are).

SOM Name...... FIELDING....... total value estimated bargain/ Defensive
salary(Name)....catch only...... (RunValue) salary bust Run saved
3.22 Molina,Y c-1(-4)e1,T-5(pb-1) 46.17 $3.99 0.77 -14.9
3.16 Perez,S c-1(-4)e1,T-13(pb-1) 42.79 $2.93 -0.23 -11.5
7.36 Martin,R c-1(-2)e1,T-7(pb-1) 71.40 $7.72 0.36 -9.8
1.55 Hanigan, c-2(-1)e1,T-2(pb-0) 35.06 $2.29 0.74 -6.7
0.50 Gosewisc c-2(-2)e1,T-6(pb-1) 18.34 $0.13 -0.37 -6.5
8.73 Lucroy,J c-1(0)e1,T-4(pb-2) 72.05 $7.82 -0.91 -6.3
2.84 McCann,B c-2(-2)e1,T-3(pb-4) 33.45 $2.06 -0.78 -6.1
1.14 Joseph,C c-2(-3)e4,T-5(pb-4) 24.72 $0.80 -0.34 -5.4
3.23 Avila,A c-2(-1)e1,T-6(pb-0) 38.20 $2.65 -0.58 -5.0
0.78 Mathis,J c-2(0)e1,T-2(pb-2) 19.84 $0.31 -0.47 -3.4
0.50 Molina,J c-2(0)e1,T-4(pb-1) 16.86 -$0.05 -0.55 -3.1
7.03 Mesoraco c-2(-1)e2,T-4(pb-4) 62.27 $6.47 -0.56 -2.9
8.77 Posey,B c-2(-1)e2,T-7(pb-2) 73.50 $8.08 -0.69 -2.7
3.54 Chirinos c-3(-2)e1,T-7(pb-1) 40.60 $2.73 -0.81 -2.3
4.16 Rivera,R c-2(-2)e4,T-9(pb-3) 48.15 $4.07 -0.09 -2.2
1.93 Ramos,W c-3(-3)e4,T-9(pb-1) 33.67 $1.85 -0.08 -1.7
1.88 Zunino,M c-2(0)e1,T-6(pb-2) 28.41 $1.21 -0.67 -1.7
0.95 Kratz,E c-3(-1)e2,T-1(pb-2) 18.52 $0.02 -0.93 -1.6
5.19 Gomes,Y c-2(-2)e1,T-19(pb-1) 50.17 $4.35 -0.84 -0.9
2.73 Castillo c-3(-2)e4,T-6(pb-1) 34.14 $2.00 -0.73 -0.9
1.09 Vazquez, c-2(-4)e6,T-14(pb-7) 25.61 $1.01 -0.08 -0.7
1.52 Pena,B c-3(-1)e1,T-9(pb-0) 24.30 $0.99 -0.53 0.1
0.50 Sucre,J c-2(0)e1,T-9(pb-4) 12.52 -$0.58 -1.08 0.8
2.20 Perez,R c-2(-1)e1,T-18(pb-1) 32.36 $1.84 -0.36 0.8
3.87 Suzuki,K c-3(0)e1,T-6(pb-0) 44.01 $3.48 -0.39 0.9
0.73 Lobaton, c-3(0)e1,T-6(pb-0) 15.33 -$0.11 -0.84 0.9
3.72 Cervelli c-3(0)e1,T-5(pb-1) 45.57 $3.85 0.13 1.1
5.95 Susac,A c-3(-1)e4,T-3(pb-3) 56.01 $5.40 -0.55 1.1
3.46 Wieters, c-2(+2)e1,T-10(pb-0) 47.82 $4.23 0.77 1.2
0.52 Barnhart c-2(-2)e5,T-6(pb-10) 12.09 -$0.50 -1.02 1.2
5.36 Iannetta c-4(-1)e1,T-3(pb-0) 51.79 $4.57 -0.79 1.2
1.05 Ellis,A c-3(0)e4,T-4(pb-0) 24.09 $0.83 -0.22 1.9
1.04 Nieves,W c-3(0)e2,T-3(pb-3) 23.02 $0.70 -0.34 2.0
2.73 Flowers, c-3(-1)e2,T-10(pb-2) 31.38 $1.49 -1.24 2.3
0.50 Federowi c-2(-2)e15,T-6(pb-1) 7.93 -$1.14 -1.64 2.3
0.76 Butera,D c-3(-1)e2,T-2(pb-8) 17.99 $0.08 -0.68 2.3
3.78 Ruiz,C c-3(+1)e3,T-4(pb-0) 42.23 $3.23 -0.55 2.4
1.83 Castro,J c-3(0)e3,T-3(pb-3) 24.24 $0.93 -0.90 2.6
2.26 Montero, c-3(-2)e5,T-14(pb-0) 29.98 $1.64 -0.62 2.6
0.50 Cruz,T c-3(0)e1,T-5(pb-4) 14.00 -$0.40 -0.90 2.8
2.77 Stewart, c-2(+1)e1,T-10(pb-5) 33.51 $1.81 -0.96 2.9
1.04 Hundley, c-3(0)e3,T-4(pb-3) 21.67 $0.20 -0.84 3.0
0.98 Fryer,E c-3(+1)e1,T-7(pb-1) 24.00 $0.82 -0.16 3.1
4.38 Vogt,S c-3(0)e1,T-3(pb-3)2 43.69 $3.50 -0.88 3.7
2.84 Corporan c-3(0)e7,T-4(pb-0) 26.99 $1.09 -1.75 3.8
1.05 Soto,G c-3(-1)e1,T-18(pb-0) 23.51 $0.39 -0.66 4.0
0.50 Rupp,C c-3(-1)e9,T-8(pb-1) 8.09 -$1.12 -1.62 5.3
0.85 Conger,H c-3(+1)e3,T-11(pb-0) 18.12 $0.23 -0.62 5.5
2.92 Murphy,J c-3(0)e1,T-10(pb-5) 34.70 $2.08 -0.84 5.5
0.50 Laird,G c-3(0)e4,T-3(pb-7) 12.02 -$0.64 -1.14 5.6
3.94 Norris,D c-3(+1)e2,T-10(pb-2) 40.98 $3.05 -0.89 5.6
2.21 Jaso,J c-4(+2)e1,T-3(pb-0) 34.31 $2.15 -0.06 5.6
1.09 Recker,A c-3(-2)e11T-10(pb-2) 22.85 $0.68 -0.41 5.8
5.50 Gattis,E c-4(0)e2,T-8(pb-0) 46.60 $3.97 -1.53 6.2
0.96 Nieto,A c-3(+2)e1,T-4(pb-7) 18.83 -$0.28 -1.24 6.4
3.35 Navarro, c-4(+1)e1,T-5(pb-2) 33.62 $2.14 -1.21 6.5
0.73 Buck,J c-4(+1)e1,T-8(pb-0) 17.57 $0.03 -0.70 6.7
0.50 Baker,J c-4(+2)e1,T-4(pb-2) 10.72 -$0.71 -1.21 7.2
0.50 Telis,T c-4(+2)e1,T-7(pb-0) 13.26 -$0.36 -0.86 7.4
3.22 Grandal, c-3(+1)e3,T-7(pb-7) 31.69 $1.89 -1.33 7.8
0.50 Clevenge c-4(+2)e4,T-4(pb-0) 14.03 -$0.31 -0.81 8.0
0.99 Pierzyns c-4(+1)e2,T-9(pb-2) 15.88 -$0.08 -1.07 8.9
2.03 Rosario, c-4(-1)e3,T-16(pb-3) 27.21 $1.21 -0.82 9.9
0.50 Leon,S c-3(-1)e14,T-10(pb-2) 7.52 -$1.06 -1.56 9.9
2.06 Maldonad c-2(-2)e16,T-20(pb-3)27.98 $1.17 -0.89 10.1
0.50 Casali,C c-3(+1)e11,T-4(pb-5) 12.03 -$0.64 -1.14 10.4
0.50 Sanchez, c-4(+1)e4,T-7(pb-4) 16.82 $0.05 -0.45 10.4
0.91 Bethanco c-3(-2)e6,T-20(pb-9) 19.34 $0.25 -0.66 11.1
0.50 Herrmann c-4(+2)e1,T-12(pb-0) 10.65 -$0.71 -1.21 11.3
1.23 Ross,D c-3(0)e11,T-13(pb-2) 22.85 $0.68 -0.55 11.4
0.50 Holaday, c-3(+1)e7,T-15(pb-3) 12.84 -$0.55 -1.05 11.5
0.50 Hayes,B c-4(+1)e6,T-11(pb-1) 3.06 -$1.74 -2.24 11.7
1.03 Gimenez, c-4(+1)e7,T-11(pb-0) 26.24 $1.09 0.06 11.7
0.70 Pacheco, c-4(+2)e1,T-11(pb-5) 20.89 $0.44 -0.26 12.0
6.17 McKenry, c-3(+2)e7,T-14(pb-3) 53.40 $5.19 -0.98 12.2
0.64 Thole,J c-4(+2)e1,T-5(pb-10) 15.89 -$0.08 -0.72 12.3
1.98 D'Arnaud c-4(+1)e2,T-16(pb-4) 23.41 $0.74 -1.24 13.1
1.58 Saltalam c-4(+2)e3,T-20(pb-1) 23.11 $0.83 -0.75 14.8
0.50 Doumit,R c-5(+2)e4,T-18(pb-0) 10.83 -$0.66 -1.16 17.8
6.81 Santana, c-4(0)e7,T-6(pb-7) 53.62 $4.96 -1.85 20.0
1.01 Arencibi c-4(+2)e16,T-12(pb-5) 22.73 $0.66 -0.35 21.9
1.14 Sanchez, c-4(+2)e16,T-20(pb-0) 20.62 $0.40 -0.74 22.4
9.05 Martinez c-5(+2)e16,T-20(pb-20) 73.56 $8.35 -0.70 23.9
1.53 Pinto,J c-4(+3)e13,T-20(pb-6) 18.83 $0.18 -1.35 25.2

Very interesting stuff. Question regarding holding runners on. You mention that with a combined very low catcher/pitcher rating, that the incentive to steal is very low and holding the runner becomes meaningless. Does STRAT still hold the runner in that situation or not? It seems to me (and I could just be making this up) I see a lot of hits given up by 1 SS or 1 2B when a runner is on which indicates the runner is almost always being held, regardless of the hold rating. I hope I'm wrong.

Strat will always hold an * runner on 1b. The non asterisk runners are a different story, and I would guess to be more dependent on the hold combination

My opinion on this is based on my experience from playing the CD-ROM, and so I assume what I've seen there expands to SOM-online.

Hal is very aggressive in holding the runner. But there are three situations where Hal stops holding the runner:
[*]threshold under which he stops holding the runner, which is around 11, (but which depends on the situation) or
[*]when a runner has 2 chances or less to get the lead (typically 3(16-6)), or
[*]when the chance to get the lead is low and the chance of getting caught is high (typically 6/8-10(13-2))

Having a catcher with a negative arm can impact on the first situation. If the runner has a lead number of 13, and the catcher/pitching combination is -3, I believe that Hal will not hold any more the runner.

I'm not so sure that runners with a * are always held, a runner whose first lead number is 15 can go as low as 10 without being held if the combination is -5, and I do believe that Hal doesn't hold in this situation except late in the game with a 1-run lead (yeah, I do believe that Hal adjusts himself to these kind of scenario...but going from impressions only). But I agree with Steve that this is the exception.

Another thing to have in mind is that Hal holds quite often the runner at second base too, at least with less than two outs and if the second number plus/minus the hold combination is 12 or higher without being held. So catchers with negative arms can prevent that too.

This said, it's only a minority of runners who have stealing numbers that allow that flexibility. Most runners either will always be held at first or will never be held at first.

I see a lot of hits given up by 1 SS or 1 2B when a runner is on which indicates the runner is almost always being held, regardless of the hold rating

I'm not sure what you mean by "a lot". When you look X-Tot X-outs of the Fielding page, make sure to remove the errors the players did. When I do so, looking at my two teams that had a ss-1 AND a 2nd-1, they allowed roughly 10 hits combined. The first baseman probably allowed an extra 5 hits, so you get roughly 15 hits per season induced by holding a runner.

Do you have some indications of more hits allowed?

This said, the most frequent impact of holding a runner and having a X-reading on a fielder responsible of the runner is to get one out instead of two, so holding a runner does impact more than at only 15 occasions. If 60 readings are modified, and if a quarter of those changes could have been prevented by having an outstanding arm behind the plate, you get the net result of 15 readings for a full season. It's not that much, but it's something to consider nevertheless.

I'm not sure what you mean by "a lot". When you look X-Tot X-outs of the Fielding page, make sure to remove the errors the players did. When I do so, looking at my two teams that had a ss-1 AND a 2nd-1, they allowed roughly 10 hits combined. The first baseman probably allowed an extra 5 hits, so you get roughly 15 hits per season induced by holding a runner.

Do you have some indications of more hits allowed?

You're right that I'm probably just remembering the times it occurred without considering the many times it didn't. But, I did have one team where Brian Dozier gave up 10 hits and another where he gave up 7. I guess I should stop using Brian Dozier!!