DP and Clutch - Does it matter that much?

I think milleram is about right with the 20 average for double play balls. I do think this has a decent impact and try and avoid guys with extremely high numbers.

Clutch to me has little impact on the game. I just looked at my last two barnstorm teams and they were a combined 2-24. The only time I target high clutch ratings is when I'm filling in my 23, 24, 25 roster spots as they tend to be the guys coming off the bench (especially in non-DH leagues) late in games with runners on. I'd like to see how SOM determines clutch and I'd also like to see different clutch ratings v L and v R. Overwhelmingly the ratings are the same, which makes little sense especially for switch hitters.

All things being equal, you obviously want clutch - but things are rarely equal. A .220 hitter who is "clutch" maybe ends up hitting .260 in those special situations. Whereas, a .310 hitter who is "not clutch" may end up only hitting .280 in those situations. You're still better off with the guy who is "not clutch" in those situations, and you absolutely want the better average day in and day out.

Just to comment on John's blog entry.

A clutch single is almost as worth as a homerun. If a team has a combined, say, -30, then it's the equivalent for that team of losing roughly 27 homeruns.

In linear weights formula, a homerun is worth around 1.4 runs...1.44 in the NERP formula that Dean uses. Typically, you can interpret this as meaning that, on average, a team will generate 1.4 runs if a homerun is hit.

Linear weights, however, do not consider context---hence, it's not a good way to predict the value of clutch singles.

Expressed otherwise, in linear weights, singles are worth 0.47 runs, but singles are not all equal: some singles have greater chances to generate runs than others. A single with two outs and nobody on will generally not lead to any run. But a clutch single ALWAYS generate runs---at least one, sometimes more, and when one does the whole calculation, based on 24-base-out probability matrix, you get that a clutch rating is typically worth 1.3 runs.

This said, the clutch single is activated only in 12% of all situations---with 2 outs and men in scoring position. So the value of a +1 clutch rating is worth 1,3*12% = 0.16 runs per 108 PA. So clutch has less value than singles (0.47 runs) or walks (0.34 runs). But in my opinion, it cannot be ignored easily.

Since clutch rating has roughly a third value of a single, a simple rule of thumb is to remove a single (hence a chance of on-base and a chance of total base) for every 3 negative clutch rating. For example, Suzuki's most recent card has vs rhp 31 chances of on-base, 33.5 total base and a -15 clutch rating. By using the rule of thumb, you could assume his card to be equivalent of a card with 26 chances of on-base and 28.5 chances of total base and a neutral clutch rating.

A few words to clarify two potential misunderstandings about the last post above, in case somebody else is in the process of calculating the value of clutch in linear weights.

First, I wrote that clutch singles always generate at least one run, but in fact, I believe this is not always the case in online strat. With the "more realistic running game" rule being applied, the runner on second might be thrown out at homeplate, since the rule applies even in a case of a clutch single (or at least, this is my understanding, although I've never seen it...can someone please confirm ou infirm???).

Second, this is a bit technical, but the reason I ended up with a linear weight of 1.3 runs for clutch singles originates in the combination of the positive value of a clutch single, and the negative value of the alternative, an out in this crucial situation.

Indeed, in linear weights, outs have negative values, in the sense that they are "inning-killer" and thereby remove the potential value of runners who have gotten on-base. Because of this, outs in clutch situations cost more than outs with no one on base because of the runners who have gotten on-base by events for which value have been attributed (0.47 in case of singles, 0,74 in case of doubles, etc). If my computation is correct, "clutch outs" are worth 0.16 worse than the average value of all outs (both with and without men on base), and this was factored in the calculation of the weight for clutch hits.

The linear weight of the clutch single per se (so not including the value of the avoided out) is 1.14.

From a 2012 team(from a league email I wrote):

Elliot Johnson got a clutch ($) hit on a 3-9 roll. Dominguez was thrown out @ home.

TOP OF INNING 2 
0 C.Beltran 1-10 Ground Out (2B) b-0 F9 
1 C.Blackmon 2-10 Ground Out (P) b-0 bpSI 1-8 F9 
2 M.Dominguez 5-6 Double (CF) b-2 F9 
2 2 E.Johnson 3-9 Single (RF) 2-o b-2 F9 

An interesting read this thread is. There have been many such threads over the years since online strat began.

There is something that is absent in many discussions. They all have a variety of posts showing the math. And often difficult to find flaws in that approach. Thing is if my team and the other guy's team are otherwise equal even a small thing can tip the scales one way or the other. Consider two teams engage in an epic battle for the wild card playoff berth. They both finish with 88 wins. Tiebreakers come in to play.

Rarely considered in that tiebreaker is the difference a run or two here or there might have made. Perhaps the presence or absence of clutch caused one of these teams to win an additional game or lose an additional game. There is your tiebreaker right there. Most of these discussions evaluate the impact over 162 games and in general find the difference to be minimal. But with so many good managers out there anything that can make a difference, no matter how small can be a difference maker.

On the question of clutch consider this: In order to have a clutch situation develop you have to first get that initial base runner on and advanced to second. So maybe a team has a few negative clutch guys. With less than 2 outs clutch is irrelevant. With 2 outs if nobody got a hit and advanced to second while those 2 outs are made then again clutch is irrelevant because 2 outs and nobody on is not a clutch situation. So perhaps instead of focusing on whether overall positive or negative clutch is better one should focus on placement of your clutch within your lineup?

Another factor I often see that I did not catch in this thread is the impact clutch has on intentional walks. Several people have reported that Hal is more likely to issue an intentional walk to a positive clutch hitter with a negative clutch on deck even if the batter on deck is a better hitter than the one at the plate. Or the flip side of that Hal is less likely to issue an intentional walk to a batter if a positive clutch is on deck.

If true then the value of some positive clutch hitters is not as much in how many additional hits they get in clutch situations as in how many times it causes the primary slugger on a team to get pitched to instead of intentionally walked.

Regarding double plays on a card could it be argued a large number is less harmful if the preceeding batter or two are high stolen base threats? After all a gb(A) is irrelevant if the runner steals second before the dice are rolled.

Valen, good points.

About your second post, Hal's tendancy to issue intentional walks to clutch hitters can also be used to your adantage on the offensive side. I like using a good slugger with a minus clutch, like Cuddyer vs rhp, in the 6th spot behind a good clutch in the hope of getting a 3-run homerun---of course works only if the other coach likes to use that strategy.

And I seem to recall, as Marc indicated, the optimal spot for a positive clutch hitter is fifth in the batting order. I guess this is because, as Valen said, that would make HAL more likely to pitch to your cleanup hitter.

DP's matter a lot. Clutch only comes into play in the 9th inning or later. I'd never take a player with clutch options over one with a better card - Even if it is slight, because you are talking about 162 games. All things being equal between players you are comparing - Then a positive clutch adds a dimension to the player in those situations.