Estimating Chris Davis' card, 2015

Estimating Chris Davis' card, 2015

Just for fun, here is my (very rough) estimate of Chris Davis' 2015 card:

vs LHP:

HBP - 3 die roll chances
Walks - 10 die roll chances
Singles - 15.6 die roll chances
Doubles - 1.5 die roll chances
Triples - 0
Homeruns (pure die roll chances) - 4.8 die roll chances
Ballpark homerun readings (die roll chances) - 7 die roll chances

vs RHP:

HBP - 3 die roll chances
Walks - 17 die roll chances
Singles - 1.25 die roll chances
Doubles - 6.7 die roll chances
Triples - 0
Homeruns (pure die roll chances) - 8.5 die roll chances
Ballpark homerun readings (die roll chances) - 8 die roll chances

Est. that he will have no ballpark singles vs RHP.

My estimate of Strat's balance rating for this card will be 2R. His card versus lefties is nice, with lots of singles this 2015 year, but he should have really nice power versus RHP this 2015 year.

Caveats - 1) Davis' 2014 card was very skewed, with no ballpark singles. My calculations on his 2015 singles might be off slightly if I haven't modeled that change correctly from year to year. His doubles vs RHP in 2014 were also very low, and that might skew my 2015 calculations.
2) As with my estimates last year, I am assuming that the ballpark effects remain the same from 2013 to 2014, at Camden yards (I also take into account average ballparks for road games). This could have a moderate effect on his card, up or down, but more likely up (if Camden's lefty HR chances go down from 2013).

My methodology was laid out two years ago. I'll provide a link. I was fairly accurate the last 2 years. I am not using any inside information to make these estimates, and I am not using any third party websites. It's my own estimates only.

Here's a link to my methodology, as set out in 2013.

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=634334

Here's a link to the equivalent thread in 2014:

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=637302

Here are my 2014 predicitions from last year, before the cards came out, with the actual card chances in brackets:

***

"Just for fun, just before the ratings download becomes available sometime this week, here is my (very rough) estimate of Chris Davis' 2014 card:

vs LHP:

HBP - 4 die roll chances [actual 2014 card - 4]
Walks - 7 die roll chances [actual - 6]
Singles - 0 die roll chances [actual - 0]
Doubles - 4.8 die roll chances [actual - 2.4 - I was quite far off on this]
Triples - 0 [actual 0]
Homeruns (pure die roll chances) - 4.75 die roll chances [actual - 5]
Ballpark homerun readings (die roll chances) - 8 die roll chances [actual - 7]

No ballpark singles vs LHP [actual - correct]

vs RHP:

HBP - 4 die roll chances [actual - 4]
Walks - 16 die roll chances [actual - 17]
Singles - .7 die roll chances [actual - 2.7, but there were no ballpark singles vs RHP in 2014, see below)]
Doubles - .1 die roll chances [actual 1.25]
Triples - 0 [actual 0]
Homeruns (pure die roll chances) - 3.9 die roll chances [actual - 4.4]
Ballpark homerun readings (die roll chances) - 6 die roll chances [actual - 5]

Est. that he will have ballpark singles vs RHP [I was wrong on this - so he got an extra 2 pure single chances instead, see my prediction caveats below]

Caveats (as predicted before the 2014 cards came out) - 1) There is a possibility that strat will remove his scanty single chances and ballpark singles from his card vs RHP, since he is so far below the threshold vs LHP that they might deduct the shortfall from his singles vs. RHP. If so, he will have no singles or ballpark singles vs RHP. [I think I was right on this, but I overestimated the crossover effect, so he got 2.7 in pure singles vs RHP, but no ballpark singles vs RHP].
2) As with my estimates last year, I am assuming that the ballpark effects remain the same from 2013 to 2014, at Camden yards (I also take into account average ballparks for road games). This could have a moderate effect on his card, up or down, but more likely up (if Camden's lefty HR chances go down from 2013).

[Overall, fairly accurate predictions last year for Chris Davis' 2014 card, especially with the extremely low singles making it difficult to predict].

The only thing I get from these threads is reminded Rangers gave up on Davis.


But I am over it. No, really. Who am I kidding. I never got over Cards giving Carlton away.

Seriously though. You do a good job and have been close on these predictions.

SOMWorld is predicting this for Davis...


21.4 hit chances (vs. RH)
44.4 OB chances
0 single chances
5.7 2B chances
0 3B chances
15.6 HR chances
74 TB's
8 BPHR's
57 K chances
4 gBA chances

That would be a good card, power without high double play risk.

gbrookes, you have been reasonably close on the other numbers in the past. What does your method say regarding potential gbA chances?

That would be a good card, power without high double play risk.

gbrookes, you have been reasonably close on the other numbers in the past. What does your method say regarding potential gbA chances?

I haven't tried to project anything other than basic events (HBP, walks and hits).

Trying to estimate the GBA's is obviously possible, but tricky. I don't actually have the ratios to GBA's to actual ground ball plays, and it could theoretically vary from team to team. I think that's outside of my projection playbook right now.

SOMWorld is predicting this for Davis...


21.4 hit chances (vs. RH)
44.4 OB chances
0 single chances
5.7 2B chances
0 3B chances
15.6 HR chances
74 TB's
8 BPHR's
57 K chances
4 gBA chances

The 15.6 homerun chances doesn't make sense to me (vs RHP), since he had more HR's vs RHP in fewer plate appearances in 2013, compared to 2015, and yet his 2013 card had 11.75 homerun chances (almost 4 fewer than the 15.6 above)).

However, the 15.6 homeruns could be consistent with my prediction if it includes the percentage of ballpark homeruns using Camden, and if Camden is still 1-18 for lefty hitters in 2015. So for example, 8*.9 would be 7.2 ballpark homeruns, plus the 8.5 pure homerun chances that I was predicting, would actually be 15.7 homerun chances (just .1 higher).

However, just to be clear, when I estimate the pure homerun chances, I estimate a mix of ballpark homerun odds. For 2015 here, I just used a simple average of .65 (1-13), which would be the average of 1-18 and 1-8. But if stratworld is expressing it "all in" including ballpark chances, and using Camden at 1-18, then the figures could be consistent with each other - just different ways of expressing the same prediction.

^^^ By the way Valen, I guess I should subscribe to stratworld!!!