Injuries

The topic of repeat injuries came up in one of my leagues again. I ran some approximate numbers, and got the following tables for a guy with 3-game and 15 game injury risks.

3-game guys, 1 injury chance / 2 injury chances / 3 injury chances

0 3.9% 0.1% 0.0%
1 13.1% 1.1% 0.1%
2 21.5% 3.7% 0.4%
3 22.5% 8.3% 1.3%
4 17.1% 13.3% 3.2%
5 10.0% 16.6% 6.4%
6 4.7% 16.5% 10.2%
7 1.8% 13.5% 13.3%
8 0.6% 9.3% 14.6%
9 0.2% 5.4% 13.6%
10 0.0% 2.7% 10.9%
11 0.0% 1.2% 7.6%
12 0.0% 0.5% 4.7%
13 0.0% 0.2% 2.5%
14 0.0% 0.0% 1.2%
15 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
16 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
17 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

I suspect these curves are a whole lot flatter than most of you would expect. Basically, it is very much odds against for a guy to get injured exactly 3X the number of injury rolls on his card.

I made some approximations to generate these tables, I suspect that someone who knows more about this than I do would get slightly different numbers.

And the table for 15 game injury guys that I got is:

0 3.9% 0.1% 0.0%
1 13.7% 1.2% 0.1%
2 22.3% 4.3% 0.5%
3 22.5% 9.8% 1.8%
4 15.7% 15.4% 4.7%
5 8.1% 17.7% 9.1%
6 3.1% 15.5% 13.4%
7 1.0% 10.6% 15.4%
8 0.2% 5.7% 14.0%
9 0.0% 2.4% 10.1%
10 0.0% 0.8% 5.8%
11 0.0% 0.2% 2.6%
12 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
13 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
14 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

These guys get injured less because they miss more games when they do get injured.

And the table for 15 game injury guys that I got is:

0 3.9% 0.1% 0.0%
1 13.7% 1.2% 0.1%
2 22.3% 4.3% 0.5%
3 22.5% 9.8% 1.8%
4 15.7% 15.4% 4.7%
5 8.1% 17.7% 9.1%
6 3.1% 15.5% 13.4%
7 1.0% 10.6% 15.4%
8 0.2% 5.7% 14.0%
9 0.0% 2.4% 10.1%
10 0.0% 0.8% 5.8%
11 0.0% 0.2% 2.6%
12 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
13 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
14 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

These guys get injured less because they miss more games when they do get injured.

If Im going strictly by these numbers- then Id simply say its amazing how many 7 or 8 time injuries occur.

rburgh, I don't understand how to read your tables. Please explain what we are looking at. Thanks.

In each row, the numbers are how many times injured in a season, how often for a guy with 1 injury roll, how often for 2 injury rolls, and how often for 3 injury rolls. I didn't bother with higher numbers of injury rolls since those guys are mostly scrubs.

If you don't understand what I mean about injury rolls, check out the SOM Wiki under the help menu.

Am posting this team so we can look at the chances you have described of this happening: Yes, it is only 1 team for 1 season.

Daniels, Kal (1987) LF 2 3.98M Game 14 2 additional days
Daniels, Kal (1987) LF 2 3.98M Game 28 2 additional days
Jones, Chipper (2008) 3B 2 7.40M Game 29 2 additional days
Jones, Chipper (2008) 3B 2 7.40M Game 32 2 additional days
Carew, Rod (1973) 2B 1 5.78M Game 34 2 additional days
Mackey, Biz (1931) C 2 4.05M Game 33 7 additional days
Carew, Rod (1973) 2B 1 5.78M Game 37 3 additional days
Brouhard, Mark (1982) RF 1 1.44M Game 44 1 additional day
Carew, Rod (1973) 2B 1 5.78M Game 55 1 additional day
Mackey, Biz (1931) C 2 4.05M Game 57 6 additional days
Carew, Rod (1973) 2B 1 5.78M Game 63 1 additional day
Jones, Chipper (2008) 3B 2 7.40M Game 65 1 additional day
Smith, Chino (1927) RF 1 7.87M Game 66 1 additional day
Smith, Chino (1927) RF 1 7.87M Game 71 2 additional days
Charleston, Oscar (1927) CF 1 7.58M Game 79 1 additional day
Kluszewski, Ted (1950) 1B 1 3.93M Game 78 2 additional days
Ryan, Nolan (1986) P - 5.53M Game 74 8 additional days
Jennings, Hughie (1896) SS 1 8.94M Game 68 15 additional days
Daniels, Kal (1987) LF 2 3.98M Game 91 7 additional days
Kluszewski, Ted (1950) 1B 1 3.93M Game 97 1 additional day
Brouhard, Mark (1982) RF 1 1.44M Game 111 1 additional day
Daniels, Kal (1987) LF 2 3.98M Game 104 8 additional days
Smith, Chino (1927) RF 1 7.87M Game 99 15 additional days
Jones, Chipper (2008) 3B 2 7.40M Game 105 10 additional days
Davis, Kiddo (1936) CF 2 .70M Game 108 8 additional days
Mackey, Biz (1931) C 2 4.05M Game 114 3 additional days
Charleston, Oscar (1927) CF 1 7.58M Game 120 2 additional days
Daniels, Kal (1987) LF 2 3.98M Game 115 7 additional days
Daniels, Kal (1987) LF 2 3.98M Game 123 3 additional days
Mackey, Biz (1931) C 2 4.05M Game 126 1 additional day
Hershberger, Willard (1940) C 6 1.22M Game 129 1 additional day
Kluszewski, Ted (1950) 1B 1 3.93M Game 123 10 additional days
Smith, Chino (1927) RF 1 7.87M Game 135 1 additional day
Jones, Chipper (2008) 3B 2 7.40M Game 138 3 additional days
Kluszewski, Ted (1950) 1B 1 3.93M Game 142 1 additional day
Jones, Chipper (2008) 3B 2 7.40M Game 144 2 additional days
Davis, Kiddo (1936) CF 2 .70M Game 142 6 additional days
Davis, Kiddo (1936) CF 2 .70M Game 150 1 additional day
Mackey, Biz (1931) C 2 4.05M Game 151 1 additional day
Carew, Rod (1973) 2B 1 5.78M Game 151 2 additional days
Kluszewski, Ted (1950) 1B 1 3.93M Game 153 1 additional day
Charleston, Oscar (1927) CF 1 7.58M Game 143 15 additional days
Daniels, Kal (1987) LF 2 3.98M Game 156 2 additional days
Smith, Chino (1927) RF 1 7.87M Game 158 7 additional days
Daniels, Kal (1987) LF 2 3.98M Semi-Finals Game 4 1 additional day
Jennings, Hughie (1896) SS 1 8.94M Semi-Finals Game 5 5 additional days
Smith, Chino (1927) RF 1 7.87M Finals Game 1 3 additional days
Mackey, Biz (1931) C 2 4.05M Finals Game 4 8 additional days

rburgh, thanks for the explanation. So if I'm understanding correctly, each percent column should total 100%, but they don't. However, even with that limitation, I looked at your data in Excel. For the 15-game eligible guys, the median number of injuries was 3 for the 1-chance guys, 5 for the 2-chance guys, and 7 for the 3-chance guys. This decreasing rates with higher risk was something one of our other frequent-posters showed in the past, and also concluded it was because players don't have the risk of another injury while they are out for an injury. What is more important to me than the number of injuries is the total games missed. Again, a posting years ago taught me that the theoretical number of games missed in a season was:

11 for a 1-chance player
20 for a 2-chance player
29 for a 3 chance player
37 for a 4 chance player

etc.

This is a progression of 11, +10, +9, +8,...

I would love to see actually injury data from a large sample of player seasons and see if it is close to this theoretical model.

Am posting this team so we can look at the chances you have described of this happening: Yes, it is only 1 team for 1 season.

Daniels, Kal (1987) LF 2 3.98M Game 14 2 additional days
Daniels, Kal (1987) LF 2 3.98M Game 28 2 additional days
Jones, Chipper (2008) 3B 2 7.40M Game 29 2 additional days
Jones, Chipper (2008) 3B 2 7.40M Game 32 2 additional days
Carew, Rod (1973) 2B 1 5.78M Game 34 2 additional days
Mackey, Biz (1931) C 2 4.05M Game 33 7 additional days
Carew, Rod (1973) 2B 1 5.78M Game 37 3 additional days
Brouhard, Mark (1982) RF 1 1.44M Game 44 1 additional day
Carew, Rod (1973) 2B 1 5.78M Game 55 1 additional day
Mackey, Biz (1931) C 2 4.05M Game 57 6 additional days
Carew, Rod (1973) 2B 1 5.78M Game 63 1 additional day
Jones, Chipper (2008) 3B 2 7.40M Game 65 1 additional day
Smith, Chino (1927) RF 1 7.87M Game 66 1 additional day
Smith, Chino (1927) RF 1 7.87M Game 71 2 additional days
Charleston, Oscar (1927) CF 1 7.58M Game 79 1 additional day
Kluszewski, Ted (1950) 1B 1 3.93M Game 78 2 additional days
Ryan, Nolan (1986) P - 5.53M Game 74 8 additional days
Jennings, Hughie (1896) SS 1 8.94M Game 68 15 additional days
Daniels, Kal (1987) LF 2 3.98M Game 91 7 additional days
Kluszewski, Ted (1950) 1B 1 3.93M Game 97 1 additional day
Brouhard, Mark (1982) RF 1 1.44M Game 111 1 additional day
Daniels, Kal (1987) LF 2 3.98M Game 104 8 additional days
Smith, Chino (1927) RF 1 7.87M Game 99 15 additional days
Jones, Chipper (2008) 3B 2 7.40M Game 105 10 additional days
Davis, Kiddo (1936) CF 2 .70M Game 108 8 additional days
Mackey, Biz (1931) C 2 4.05M Game 114 3 additional days
Charleston, Oscar (1927) CF 1 7.58M Game 120 2 additional days
Daniels, Kal (1987) LF 2 3.98M Game 115 7 additional days
Daniels, Kal (1987) LF 2 3.98M Game 123 3 additional days
Mackey, Biz (1931) C 2 4.05M Game 126 1 additional day
Hershberger, Willard (1940) C 6 1.22M Game 129 1 additional day
Kluszewski, Ted (1950) 1B 1 3.93M Game 123 10 additional days
Smith, Chino (1927) RF 1 7.87M Game 135 1 additional day
Jones, Chipper (2008) 3B 2 7.40M Game 138 3 additional days
Kluszewski, Ted (1950) 1B 1 3.93M Game 142 1 additional day
Jones, Chipper (2008) 3B 2 7.40M Game 144 2 additional days
Davis, Kiddo (1936) CF 2 .70M Game 142 6 additional days
Davis, Kiddo (1936) CF 2 .70M Game 150 1 additional day
Mackey, Biz (1931) C 2 4.05M Game 151 1 additional day
Carew, Rod (1973) 2B 1 5.78M Game 151 2 additional days
Kluszewski, Ted (1950) 1B 1 3.93M Game 153 1 additional day
Charleston, Oscar (1927) CF 1 7.58M Game 143 15 additional days
Daniels, Kal (1987) LF 2 3.98M Game 156 2 additional days
Smith, Chino (1927) RF 1 7.87M Game 158 7 additional days
Daniels, Kal (1987) LF 2 3.98M Semi-Finals Game 4 1 additional day
Jennings, Hughie (1896) SS 1 8.94M Semi-Finals Game 5 5 additional days
Smith, Chino (1927) RF 1 7.87M Finals Game 1 3 additional days
Mackey, Biz (1931) C 2 4.05M Finals Game 4 8 additional days

Campanella, Roy (1953) C 2 7.40M Game 28 3 additional days
Campanella, Roy (1953) C 2 7.40M Game 33 8 additional days
Campanella, Roy (1953) C 2 7.40M Game 46 15 additional days
Campanella, Roy (1953) C 2 7.40M Game 93 4 additional days
Campanella, Roy (1953) C 2 7.40M Game 149 6 additional days
Campanella, Roy (1953) C 2 7.40M Game 157 8 additional days

After this season, (ATG3) I quit using Campanella