Biggest snubs and surprises for 2015

Looking purely at the data (no salaries yet obviously)

to me, quick look, the biggest snubs I see are

A Rizzo: subpar TB's on both sides, really subpar hits and OB vs RHP. Maybe no usable except as a HR/walk guy down 6th spot. Not a middle of the order hitter.

M Carpenter: No way that card (in our game) will have a .926 OPS vs RHP (real life). Just much lower number all around than expected vs RHP.

B Harper: Not that the card isn't good, but TBH should have been much higher than it is. I have no piece of him in any pre-card league, just expected more. Only 5th in TB vs RHP, even though he was #1 in SLG vs them (of those with 40+ ab's).

To me, the biggest risers are - the unleashed cards!

Assuming they make it in unleashed even: J Parker, J Arencibia, R. Refsnyder, K Blanks should all be stupendous hitters.

Can't comment on bargains, since no prices yet. But guys I will be targeting (assuming they make it in the regular game)

Corner OF - Harper - duh, still best hitting card that will make the regular set.
3B - Seager - Though if you miss him you will get a SS for replacement
1B - Goldschmidt - probably best 1B, but most likely not the best bargain.
CF - Trout - back to being the #1 best CF BUT...Pollock - is right behind (better hits, less HR), and potentially a better bargain.
Platoons - Seriously, so many guys only good on one side. I think there are more guys with 60+ TB vs 1 side than I can remember. I can find a good platoon at each position, not just ok, I mean good good.

Top 15 cards (even those that won't make it in game, this is just offense, not counting Def, stealing, injury) in a neutral park (10/10 HR):

Parker,J*
Harper,B*
Arencibia,J
Seager,C*
Ortiz,D*
Stanton,G
Wallace,B*
Gutierrez,F
Dickerson,C*
Shaw,T*
Goldschmidt,P
Gordon,D*
Refsnyder,R
Colabello,C
Cruz,N

In pitchers park (1/1/ HR):
Parker,J*
Arencibia,J
Harper,B*
Seager,C*
Stanton,G
Gutierrez,F
Goldschmidt,P
Gordon,D*
Refsnyder,R
Colabello,C
Cruz,N
Trout,M
Bogaerts,X
Cabrera,M
Gosselin,P

In hitters park (19/19 for HR):
Parker,J*
Harper,B*
Ortiz,D*
Seager,C*
Arencibia,J
Shaw,T*
Wallace,B*
Davis,C*
Dickerson,C*
Moreland,M*
Bradley Jr,J*
Carpenter,M*
Bird,G*
Fielder,P*
Gonzalez,C*

I get what you are saying about Harper. His hit chances vs RHPs are behind guys he hit 60-70 points higher than (Andrelton Simmons?).

I would add Stanton to your list too, especially in an HR park...and just filthy against LHPs. Might milk 450 abs out of him and 60 hrs.

geekor,

I just calculated slugging percentage based on Strat ratings, and Harper's slugging is second to J Parker vs rhp---he is the only player with a slugging over 1,000 (one thousand) among players with 100 PA+ vs rhp.

The illusion comes from the fact that we assume TB to be slugging pct, but it's not.

Just like in Strat, Harper finished fifth last year in Total Base (behind Arenado, Donaldson, Cespedes, and Trout).

I didn't calculate the average batting average based on the ratings, but I am sure it's the same illusion. Harper only hit 91 singles last year. His batting average is high because he walks a ton---and hits safely when he touches the ball.

Harper vs Trout. I wonder who will have the higher salary. Trout's cf 1e0 and running 1-17, and 680 PA+ (no injury) are great assets. Harper has good numers on those issues, but not great ( 2e8 in left field, running 1-14, and 650 PA+ (injuries of 3 games or less))

Make Harper a rf-2, not lf, and his arm is -4, so he might have the edge over Trout...will see when I do my ratings

that's just great...the only guys I have in my keeper league on this list are...Rizzo and Carpenter!

A couple of notes:

1) Geekor, I think you must be underrating OB somehow because I don't see Votto anywhere on these lists. That is a monster OB card with a nice 1B rating. I think the OB alone makes it the best 1B card in the set. His LHness gives him the overall edge on Goldy though I have yet to apply my system to the ratings, just eyeballing. In general I discount OB for RHBs around 5% due to the prevalence of tough RHPs in most 12-team leagues, effectively putting Goldy's OB @ 45% vs RHP and Votto more than 10 pts higher.

2) Very happy to have 1 team with Harper, C Seager, Ortiz and C Davis in Camden Yards. To that core I add Kipnis, Brantley, Blanks, Valencia, Tulo, Vogt. Think we'll score a few runs? And not to be outdone, SPs are Arrieta, MadBum, DeGrom, Verlander for the front four. Yep, lookin' fwd to that one.

3) Marc/Lucky always good to see a post from you.

Cheers,
Qk

A couple of notes:

1) Geekor, I think you must be underrating OB somehow because I don't see Votto anywhere on these lists. That is a monster OB card with a nice 1B rating. I think the OB alone makes it the best 1B card in the set. His LHness gives him the overall edge on Goldy though I have yet to apply my system to the ratings, just eyeballing. In general I discount OB for RHBs around 5% due to the prevalence of tough RHPs in most 12-team leagues, effectively putting Goldy's OB @ 45% vs RHP and Votto more than 10 pts higher.

2) Very happy to have 1 team with Harper, C Seager, Ortiz and C Davis in Camden Yards. To that core I add Kipnis, Brantley, Blanks, Valencia, Tulo, Vogt. Think we'll score a few runs? And not to be outdone, SPs are Arrieta, MadBum, DeGrom, Verlander for the front four. Yep, lookin' fwd to that one.

3) Marc/Lucky always good to see a post from you.

Cheers,
Qk

I don't think I value OB as much as bbrool and you do, you're right on that. Then again, that's why I never draft bums like Helton (his last few years) that graded out higher due to OB more than anything, but was constantly left off teams as he was a bum. I still think y'all rate it too high.

But, being honest, my formula was one based off you, luckyman, and others from the strategy section. I just haven't updated it from what you guys were using back in the say.. 04 season? (or around there). You guys keep tinkering with it, I don't.

Geekor, I guess you are referring to the 1.6*walk+2*single +... formula?

Anyway, my comment wasn't referring to your ranking, but to your comment that TB should be higher on Harper's card. I don't think it should. Harper walks so much that his total base can't be higher. Last year, even though Harper finished first in slugging percentage, he finished "only" 5th in total base, and this is roughly what his card shows--he's between 2nd and 4th in total base, depending on the ballpark ratings, but first in slugging percentage (among regulars), as expected.

Greetings, qksilver

Top 10 offensive cards as ranked by a well known website
Harper
Trout
Votto
Cruz
Donaldson
Cabrera
Teixeira
Davis
Goldschmidt
Encarnacion