Fascinating Stats

This said, don't forget that this .010 hit increase for home teams might have systemic impact that go beyond dice/chance probabilities. Example:

A-The hit increase gives the home team an early lead
B-Those extra hit increases the chance of an early exit for the starting pitcher
C-The reliever is worse and gives a few more hits and runs
D-Thus, the visiting team employs a reliever set up as "behind late" or "mope-up"--usually the worse relievers
E-Thus, the home team employs a set-up man and a closer--usually the better relievers
F-Of course, since the home team faces a worse reliever, it has more hits AND more at-bats, and with more at-bats come more chances to hit
G-So you end up with the home teams having more hits, but mostly driven by who were pitching.

Any type of analysis must control for: 1) pitcher quality; 2) plate appearances

If this game were that unpredictable, wouldn't it be extremely difficult for the same managers to consistently have success?

If this game were that unpredictable, wouldn't it be extremely difficult for the same managers to consistently have success?

Presumably the successful people have spent the time to reverse engineer the algorithm, or just developed intuition how it works.

Its not a question of predictability, its a question of understanding the rules that govern the game.

If this game were that unpredictable, wouldn't it be extremely difficult for the same managers to consistently have success?

Presumably the successful people have spent the time to reverse engineer the algorithm, or just developed intuition how it works.

Its not a question of predictability, its a question of understanding the rules that govern the game.

EXACTLY!
You took the words right out of my mouth.

Overall the home teams are hitting .13 points over their road averages not .15. One team has a -.08 on the road that is a subtraction not an addition to the total. There are 6 teams over the .1 average and 1 team at the average and 5 under the average. -0.08, 0.05, 0.09,0.09,0.10,.14,.18,.18,.21,.20,.21,.21 and 4 of the teams with the highest percentages are all in the West division where there is some very cheap pitching. We shall see the difference by the end of the season.


The three last place teams?
One has 15 million Babe Ruth & Lefty O'douhl 7.76 %& Hugh Duffy 11.75
Another has Ted WIlliams 12.03, Stan Musial 10.86
The third has Lou Gehrig 11.89 and Chick Hafey 7.47

First place teams top hitters
One has Bill Dahlen 6.66 and Dan Brothers 6.75 & Elmer Flick 6.55
One has Luke Appling 7.62 and Chino Smith (7.87)
One has Kelly King 7.83 and Wade Boggs (7.32)

The league is a net -104 losses greater on road than at home, the bottom 3 teams heavy on HR power account for 50 of the 104 net road losses.

68-118 bottom 3 teams (.365)
258-312 rest of league (.452)

So sometimes you include all the teams when helps proving your point...other times you separate them to fit your logic... believe me you'd break it down to batting order and injury factor to go to any length to...show "it's exactly it should be and you knew it would" and if by some chance you couldn't make your case you'd simply say this in anecdotal and proves nothing.....Because this game from top to bottom is perfect to you....always...So I'll ask again...if you think the game never has any "black box things" going on...


Why did you fill your own 12 team league to see if this game somehow depressed Dodger batting?

Where did I state it was perfect? I merely stated the stats as they really were. You seem obsessed that the game is screwing you over in an unknown way and you are going to prove it, I look at the stats and then try to fit a rational explantation to them, if there is none then you have something. Obviously there is block box "stuff" stuff going on or you wouldn't get better hitting at home. It is just not as much as you state, but the idea that all these managers are equal in talent and all the teams are equal so the fact that everyone doesn't have the same record is ludicrous. Dave Boswell in a league like this is gold, all those BP home runs that make his card so cheap are outs in every park in the league. Are you surprised he is on a first place team? Or that the team with 15 million dollar Ruth who loses 25 home runs over the course of the season because of the parks compared to a lefty "20" park is not doing well in an 80 million dollar league with absolutely no home run parks?

The Western Division is interesting with all the teams getting more hits than expected @ home, that is what is unusual and interests me. Only thing I noted was the pitching out there is worse than rest of the league in general. It is possible, though not proven and only speculation, that therefore if this were to recur that cheap pitching would be impacted and more subject to being tired on the road and therefore perhaps less of a value than one would think, perhaps that would then be quantifiable as giving your opponents on the road double the average home field advantage by having a cheap pitching staff that is more subject to being tired and therefore even less value than appears, but that is only a thought at this point and the only abnormal item I noticed about this league. The idea that Stratomatic has a duty to figure this out and inform everyone of the outcomes that result from various permutations because of the way the game calculates chances and enforces conflicting rules is a non starter with me.

If there were too many "black Box" items going on then the better players would not consistently win. That is not saying the same thing as the game is perfect and there are no black boxes.

I look at the stats and then try to fit a rational explantation to them, if there is none then you have something. Obviously there is block box "stuff" stuff going on or you wouldn't get better hitting at home.

. The idea that Stratomatic has a duty to figure this out and inform everyone of the outcomes that result from various permutations because of the way the game calculates chances and enforces conflicting rules is a non starter with me.

If there were too many "black Box" items going on then the better players would not consistently win. That is not saying the same thing as the game is perfect and there are no black boxes.

There are some problems here:
First, how can you find an irrational explanation given that all things are mathematically possible and therefor 'rational'.?
Just like a penny coming up heads 100 times in a row-- statistically rare-- but irrational???

Second, to my knowledge this is the first time you have stated that there is 'obiviously black box stuff going on
'
Third and most importantly; completely incorrect logic. What is the determining factor of 'too many'? We've already addressed that managers can find trends either intuitively or through calculation that will help them determine a better outcome--

Lastly-- as far as the company goes-- YES-- it is in fact incumbent upon them to provide a reasonably accurate picture of game conditions.

Nev,
You signed in with the wrong user id...


Charlie

Nev,
You signed in with the wrong user id...


Charlie

Charlie, You signed in to the wrong gateway, just use your company ID.

I mean this way you can avoid answering

Im just curious-- why would anyone stand in the way of trying to get more transparency?

Especially given that you have clearly agreed that black box items are occuring-- makes no sense really.