Wed Mar 02, 2016 8:52 pm
Hi guys,
I did a lot of full season sims in the past week and here is how I see things shaping up for Season 1:
Div winners:
Craig
Lev or Jason
Me
WC: Smokey
I generally come in around 105 wins. A bit less than I had hoped for given my squad but given weaker hitters in CF and SS it's not that surprising I guess, as well as having some injury rolls. I win the div around 90% of the time so far, every once in a while Smokey sneaks in front of me.
Craig is usually next in the 98-100 win range. He's probably the best lock for predictions as his div is a bit weaker overall than Central and East.
The Central is a very good horse race, mostly between Lev and Jason with an occasional glimpse of Stoney on top. Lev wins a bit more often in sims so for now will give him the nod at around 90 wins.
Smokey is hitting the WC win around 80% of the time in sims and coming in at around 94-96 wins. When he loses the WC 1 of 2 things happens: a) Smitty has an outlier season and beat Smokey by a game or two, or b) Craig wins less than usual and one of his div mates (usually Hawk or Cubit) has a positive outlier at around 90 wins to overtake Smokey, who has a low outlier at around 88 wins.
Remember, these are best guesses based on what I have seen, but the normal range is around 12 games, 6 games higher or lower than what I have listed here.
I am playing the season without the 60-game injury rule. If that rule is implemented for SOM Online it may change things. For sure some of the fluke cards have an impact. Top pick Gutierrez often hits 50 HRs as does Arencibia. Corey Seager wins the batting title around 3 times out of 10.
Happy to answer questions if you have any. Enjoy what's left of Hot Stove before the season starts!
Qk