Thu Mar 03, 2016 8:54 pm
My first reaction was this is crazy; the new super advanced injury charts will cause WAY TOO many pitching injuries. But on my car ride home now, I was giving it some thought. I think now think it will make a game much different then with the standard injury charts, but not necessarily worse. In fact, I think the super advanced injuries will result in a more realistic season. Here's how I see it...
Up until now, a batter with 650 PA has 650 opportunities to be injured. For example, a dude with an injury on 2-12 on his card will hit that unlucky roll about three times in a season (there are 216 dice outcomes, so in 650 rolls he'll hit 2-12 on average 3 times). Up until now, a typical starting pitcher who faces 650 batters during the season, has about 70 opportunities to be injured (either his 70 season at-bats or in a DH league, 1/9 of the batters are DHs). Therefore a typical SP will hit the unlucky injury roll about once every three seasons (there are 216 dice outcomes, but the pitcher is only exposed about 70 times per season). Have any of you watched MLB on TV since 1950? We have been pampered playing with realistic hitter injury frequencies in Strat but unrealistic almost-Superman pitchers. This new rule will result in hitting and pitching injuries each season. I like this change. My only problem with it is that the pitcher pricing is not discounted with the higher injury risk. Actually, my solution is to allow for flexibility in designing league drop penalties. I'd like to play leagues with 0% drop penalties, so when a guy is injured, you can fetch another one.