Probability quiz

Black

It doesn't really matter...no matter what I bet on, it would come up the opposite.

Bill

If you turn your clocks ahead 1 hour on a Sunday, do you do it next Sunday too? Delivery Boy bets on RED!

Sincerely,
Delivery Boy...

If one trusts the house to have a correctly balanced and properly maintained wheel it does not matter. But if you are skeptical of the honesty of the house then decide which way the house thinks the group at that table are betting and bet the opposite. The house as I understand it does not care who wins and loses on a game or bet as long as it gets a share of all money bet.

Being the born pessimist and born skeptic I am the odds of black or red on any spin is directly opposite of the amount bet on either color for a given spin. If I were rigging the wheel that is how I would work it. 60% bet on red then that wheel is configured weighted to deliver 60% black.

Based on the current vote being at 63% black and believing the house will therefore rig the wheel to deliver 63% red I have voted red.

The way to bet is on red. Why? Number one rule of gambling (well, money management is #1 but I digress) :"never bet against a streak". Most people will bet on what is "due", and there is no such thing. Now, this is not my rule. Guys, I'm not that smart. But I'll tell you about BY FAR the smartest man I ever met. I was working craps in Vegas and there was this aerospace engineer who would win every time he came. He could figure multiple odds of any possible thing happening in his head as the game progressed . I swear I've never seen anything like it! We became friendly (he was a very generous tipper too)and there were 6 or 8 of us standing around and he posed the same question I asked here. Everyone but me said black, and I only said red just to be different. He looked at me and said "now, THERE'S a gambler". I told him I just figured that everyone else would be wrong, since people generally are. He said, "well, despite your lack of education you have a mind that is capable of learning". Coming from this man, that may well be the best compliment I've ever received.

Heard the same thing. If a team wins 3 in a row, bet on that team. Except, of course, the Ranchers....

Sincerely,
Delivery Boy...

Heard the same thing. If a team wins 3 in a row, bet on that team. Except, of course, the Ranchers....

Sincerely,
Delivery Boy...

Bet heavy against my Twins then!

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/428974

Of course, you should consider the fact that an American roulette table has a GREEN zero and double zero, and an international wheel has a GREEN zero...hence the sightly less than 50/50 odds that provides the profit margin for the house.

The only thing is, that is not much of an explanation for why you should bet on red.

The only thing is, that is not much of an explanation for why you should bet on red.

Never bet against a streak. This is due to a "clustering" effect that takes place in any random generated pattern. This is why the majority of winning lotto tickets have 2 number in a row , and way more than I'd think there should even have 3 in a row. It has been proven that to select a 6 number lotto ticket without having at least two numbers in row greatly decreases your chance of winning (which of course ain't much to begin with ). Playing blackjack? Dealer get two 21's in a row get up and walk! Our instinct tells us to double up because a bust is coming, but it just doesn't work that way. I don't know why , but there are some really smart Stat guys on here (Marc for one) that I"m sure could explain it. I just know how it works from working in casinos for several years. I've seen it time and time again.