Probability quiz

Haven't played Blackjack in a while. What I do know third base can make or break the deal. Delivery Boy stayed on a '6' (Ace and a 5) one time and the dealer showed a 6. She busted on the next card. The dealer told me not to do that anymore. Why? As usual, Delivery Boy screwed up everything and the table cheered.

Sincerely,
Delivery Boy...

If the events are both truly random and independent - then belief in a "hot streak" or "hot hand" is the inverse of the gambler's fallacy.

The gambler's fallacy occurs when events cluster (which they will in a random sample) and one believes that the next outcome will be the opposite of the cluster (that is, when red comes up three times in a row then black is due).

The inverse of the gambler's fallacy is that the streak will continue (three reds will be followed by another red).

Neither are true. At an honest roulette table the chance of hitting either red or black is equal and is unaffected by any previous result. The honest roulette wheel has no memory of previous events.

So - I disagree with the conclusion that is being offered by Steve F that one of the two outcomes is preferred - each are equally likely. Gamblers may follow their intuition by walking away from a blackjack table where the dealer has hit two straight hands with "21", but they are not following probability.

I too disagree with Steve F. (which I must note is rare). There is absolutely no math or logic or probability in his explanation.

I too disagree with Steve F. (which I must note is rare). There is absolutely no math or logic or probability in his explanation.

I'm afraid maybe I didn't explain it very well. As I said, it's not "my" theory, I just have a lot of faith in "the old man at the crap table"