fenders wrote:I understand what they are. I'm not sure how they are relevant to my selecting a lineup, and evaluating the significance of the observed success/failure rate for both pitchers and hitters.
Here's one example of how BP HRs figured into my team.
I play in County Stadium in a 60s league. Homerun ballpark chances (#) have this success chance for my home games:
left-handed hitters = 5 percent chance of homerun
right-handed hitters = 40 percent chance of homerun
So, it's no coincidence my best power hitters (Stuart, Santo, Kaline) are right-handed hitters. Now I can't go with all right-handed hitters or opposing teams could take advantage of my team and start pitchers who are excellent against right-handed batters (e.g., 5R). So, I have some good left-handed batters, but they just don't happen to have much power. Another team in my league has a park that favors left-handed power hitters, so he has more left-handed batters on his team.
It's a balancing act between wanting to tailor my team to the strengths of my ballpark, while keeping some semblance of balance.