Strikeout to ERA Correlation

This league doesn't support the "Ks don't effect the ERA" example well. It may very well be an exception but I didn't cherry pick it. It's my one and only completed strat league. High K pitchers dominated the top 15 or so ERAs. You would need to adjust for price of course to glean any info at all from such a small sample. There are however some lower buck high K low ERA pitchers near the top of the league.

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/sta ... /all/era/1

League I am in now is way too early but 4 of 10 ERA leaders are not high K pitchers. Maddux and Cy Young are currently #3 and #4 in ERA. That's probably more typical.

next roll is a 4-6 you can either have Bagby’s FBrf(B) with Stan Musial out in RF or a strikeout from Koufax .... but against Bagby Cobb likely will take 3rd

Perhaps you can help me out here. According to the rules on how to read a pitcher's card....

fly(cf)A, fly(cf)B, fly (cf)B?, fly(cf)C -- Flyout to listed position (left field, center field, right field). An "A" is a very deep flyout - all runners advance one base. A "B" is a deep flyout - runner on third scores. A "B?" means the runner on third has a chance to score using his speed rating and the outfielder's arm. A "C" is a shallow flyout - all runners hold.

Specifically

A "B" is a deep flyout - runner on third scores.

If I read the rules right Cobb will NOT take third. If he were already on third he would score but does so not matter who is in RF and what that RFers defensive ratings might be.

Only on a fly (cf)B? does the throwing arm of an OFer matter according to the posted rules. And regardless of how many strikeouts are on a card no pitcher card has any flyball B followed by a question mark. So that is totally irrelevant to the discussion.

Am I misinterpreting the rule?

Actually, a flyB to rf can cause a runner to advance to 3rd base.

Seriously...... I am disappointed at your lack of understanding here.

Each pitcher card has 108 36x3) chances per side. So on average for every 108 rolls you would get....
Looking at left side of card. Same principles apply to the right. I use shortstop as an example here but it is the same thing for every position.
Ryan73 40 strikeout rolls 7 gb(ss)X rolls
Bagby20 2 strikeout rolls 7 gb(ss)X rolls

So put any SS behind these 2 pitchers and the benefit or harm that shortstop brings to that pitcher is EXACTLY the same.
This is not rocket science. It is simple math any 5th grader could do.

next roll is a 4-6 you can either have Bagby’s FBrf(B) with Stan Musial out in RF

You are comparing one of the best pitching cards in the set with a well below average card.

You are missing how the whole of the game works and are looking too close at one piece. Stratomatic is like a symphony, all the pieces are the same notes but the arrangement has a different musical effect and despite being the same notes does not impart the same effect. Looking at a single measure does not bring an understanding of the entirety of the piece, that is all I can say on this. As for the comparison of the cards I was using the cards you discussed not for any other reason. Would you like a test? Play a season and have a pitcher card shared with all outs as strikeout and defense Xouts only and another with all outs only FB rf(b) and use all the same players for both teams. I’ll give you the FB(b) pitcher and I’ll take the strikeout pitcher, well play 162 games 1000 times. You really think it’ll be 50-50? Do you think both teams will have the exact same number of errors?

The rules say ...
A "B" is a deep flyout - runner on third scores.

Can you explain to me the details of how that runner advances from second? That is not in the posted rules on the help page. Of course I realize the posted rules have been wrong before which is why I asked. I tried to email strato to confirm this and also to confirm another section of the rules. But email was returned undeliverable.

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/game/playbyplay/423788/18

for proof review this game.... bottom of 1st McPhee ran from 2nd to 3rd on a fly ball B 5-8 on Claude Hendrix with TY Cobb in RF. Then went on to score from 3rd on an error by Luke Appling. Just exactly as I described above.....

Advanced rules mean HAL will make more decisions on when to run other than on the basic rules. Reviewing box scores and playing multiple leagues helps understand how this works much better. I presume the decision was like this

“HAL: Crap losing by 5 already, ahhh fly ball to Cobb he’s got a puss arm I’ll try for third. Cobb: who cares let him run we are up by five I’ll keep the runner at first. Appling: damn I lost my concentration when I thought I might get McPhee at the plate” Claude: I wish I could strike out batters like that Walter Johnson feller so these fine hitting mopes wouldn’t effect my games so much...

The rules say ...
A "B" is a deep flyout - runner on third scores.

Can you explain to me the details of how that runner advances from second? That is not in the posted rules on the help page. Of course I realize the posted rules have been wrong before which is why I asked. I tried to email strato to confirm this and also to confirm another section of the rules. But email was returned undeliverable.

Advanced Rule 14.3 which modifies basic rules on 3.0..writing this post on my iphone, can't post the link, but you can google it.

Rules
http://www.rsbl.org/somrules.htm

Thanks MARCPELLETIER. So the fb()B can make a difference going from second to third.

Now to try and measure impact. According to MLB Royals had men in scoring position in 1358 ABs. I used scoring position because that counted both potential advancement from second to third and the worse event of actually scoring from third. They had men in scoring position and 2 out 687 times. Subtracting gives me 711 times men in scoring position and 2 out. So using that as baseline because I am too lazy to compile for all 30 teams.

Checking my database for starting pitchers with more than 30 Ks on card there is an average of 9.6 fb()B {. Looking at starting pitchers with less than 10 Ks the average is 15.6 fb()B. That is a total of 6 more chances for a non strikeout pitcher than for a strikeout pitcher.

So 6 additional chances out of 108 rolls 1 of every 18 rolls. Factor in the batter rolls where who the pitcher is does not matter and we have 1 every 36 rolls. So over our 711 opportunites we get 19 times on average when the OF arm will matter. And that is for the entire KC team. Divide that by a 5 man rotation and we are looking at 4 times over the course of a season when it will matter who is in RF for a non strikeout pitcher verses a strikeout pitcher.

So is there a difference? Yes, I agree there is a difference. Is 4 plays in a season going to make a significant difference in the ERA over a full season? You decide. Are those 4 plays enough to make sure you have 3 OFers with great throwing arms verses say a Cobb with an average arm? You decide. Could it make a difference in ERA? Maybe a few tenths. But is that enough to warrant paying more for a card or moving up your draft card reducing the chances of getting the cards skipped over? You decide.

I also ran for just pitchers with > 50. There were only 13. The average dropped to 3.1 which basically doubles our difference and leaves us with about 8 plays. Probably worth a little more money but still how much more are you going to pay for that extreme strikeout pitcher?

Everything else being equal I will take a card full of strikeouts verses something else. But that is mostly because I am naturally inclined to the strikeout. I am just naturally s pitching/speed oriented mindset. But it is not sufficient for me to target a strikeout pitcher in a draft over any other pitcher.

Perhaps for someone else it is. If you are going to use this as a determining factor in who you select that begs the question how much are those 4 plays worth in extra salary for having that strikeout pitcher verses a non strikeout pitcher?

By the way what is rsbl.org? And more importantly how certain can we be that rules there are the same ones used in the online game? This little insignificant discussion we have going here is nothing compared to all the discussions over the years where people have tried to determine exactly what rules/options/features are truly turned on and which are turned off.

None of the experience players have attempted to quantify lost GIDP opportunities for the high K pitchers? Does this work meaningfully against them?