Strategy Discussion

I make the playoffs about 25% of the time. I'm not happy with that.

Here are some premises that I've gathered that I think I need to work with going forward. Looking for opinions.

- Small ball teams can win in any stadium. HR teams have trouble scoring runs in small ball parks but small ball teams can score in any park.

- Get high value hitters, as opposed to big money hitters who may not create value commensurate with their salary, and spend the money you save on great pitching

- Great pitching is the only way to try to prevent opposing hitters in their home park.

- You have to win on the road to get in the playoffs

First, win at home

Second, win vs division

Third, win on road

Target 55-57 (56-25) wins at home and 35-37 wins on the road (36-45) for a total of 90-92 wins.

In large cap leagues is is more about brute force, low cap leagues it is more about value players.

It is more difficult now, but the old formula was make the playoffs 50%, finals 25% and ring 12%.

FWIIW, sschu

Some observations from a guy who meets sschu's criteria (205 completed teams, 105 playoffs, 55 finals, 29 rings).

1. Most people spend way too much on their bullpen, particularly the bottom tier guys. How much you spend on your pen is heavily influenced by the cap and your rotation and ballpark. You need 2 or 3 good relievers in Fenway 67 at $100 million, and very little bullpen in Petco. Also note that ATG 7 does not use the closer rule.

2. Value is very important at the lower caps, and the players that are "values" vary from park to park. Pitchers, especially, fluctuate heavily, often influenced by the opposing lineups and ballparks, too.

3. At $200 MM and above, lineup construction is very important, and day-to-day managing is often required.

4. Win your division first.

5. Don't forget about on-base chances. People mock Jack Zduriencik for his HR happy approach, but he must be playing here under about 75 ID's. I can't count the number of guys who bust a gut trying to get 8 ballpark HR's both ways throughout their lineup in power parks at the expense of having a couple of on-base types.*

6. Don't overestimate the ability of small-ball teams to win in power parks. They can, but Polo '41 is the great equalizer. Also the family of parks of this type (very low hit chances compared to power chances) are death to Forbes 57 type teams.

7. Defense up the middle is underrated. Range along the lines is overrated, although error ratings are still important.

8. Platoons can be very effective - especially since HAL makes curious decisions about relievers sometimes.

Remember, thought, there is an antidote to everything. Teams that platoon a lot are very vulnerable to reverse pitchers, and also can be worked in a Fenway 67 type park (all RH starters, a couple of lefty middle relievers, and a RH closer for example). Teams that have a lot of power obviously are very ineffective in Forbes 09 or 57 types. Teams built for a singles park are useless in Petco for the most part.

Avoid "neutral" parks.

Go to the Barnstormers' tournament forum, find the links to past leagues, and browse through them for ideas. Don't copy the teams slavishly - W-L records can sometimes be a poor indicator of how good the team really was, and more a reflection of the luck of the rolls and the matchups they faced with other teams and ballparks.

I can't claim the success nor the experience of rburgh, but have 15 rings and 9 lost finals in 48 completed teams

my observations -
1)matching pitchers to parks is wise
2)matching hitters to your home park is even more wise
3)natural HR can be under rated, and BPHR sometimes overvalued
4)someone on even the smallest of small ball teams needs to be able to get RBIs
5)pitcher's errors, WP, balks, fielding is often ignored too much
6)losing teams often waste money (drops, pricey backups) -making drops during the season rarely helps your team in any but extremely high cap leagues (the smaller the cap, the more losing that salary will harm your chances)
7)clutch rating matters, but not nearly as much as most think
8)it is easy to get over enamored of the few outlier cards (fewer than 5 BP singles), but they can be very valuable in the right park combinations.
9)managers often don't look closely enough at the number of GBA on cards

I only really play 80mil leagues, so take it FWIW:

I match my hitters to my home park.
I match my pitchers to my division.
Take a wholistic approach to defense... don't assume you need 1's at 2b/SS.
Don't use more than one specialist in the bullpen unless you REALLY know what you're doing.
If you don't make the playoffs, study the playoff teams closely.

Set yourself on fire and jump off of a tall building.
That is my strategy; after watching 4 of my (previously thought playoff-bound) teams go on horrendous losing streaks over the past three weeks.

I'm afraid to even look at the results every night. It's like some crazy math freak show. Pitchers pitching no -hitters get yanked in the 3rd inning. teams built to not hit into DP's hit into 10 over a three game series. Teams built to pitch get blown out. Teams built to run get thrown out. Teams with great run differentials battle for 4th place. Great pitchers get bombed in their own park; usually in the first inning. Nap Lajoie hits .280 85 games into the season. Tris Speaker can't buy a double. Lefties can't hit righties..... and on and on and on.

My next disaster piece- my no fielding experiment- starts monday and I'm loathe to watch what kind of outcome it produces. It could get pretty ugly with that one.

Every night I feel like the guy who gets his head slammed on a pencil by the Joker in Batman.

bump...

Play auto leagues with standard competition. There are many long time players who know every card inside out.

Hackra wrote :

I can't claim the success nor the experience of rburgh, but have 15 rings and 9 lost finals in 48 completed teams

If you have 24 finals appearances in 48 tries not only can you claim success to that other guy, you can claim to be as successful as anyone who has ever played this game... Number of teams played means very little. Show me your winning percentage, your percentage of teams that have made the playoffs, and percentage of teams that went on to win the title. You sir, are kicking butt and you have the most impressive record I have ever seen...

rburgh wrote:

7. Defense up the middle is underrated. Range along the lines is overrated, although error ratings are still important.

rburgh is obviously a very accomplished manager and I agree with most of what he wrote, however I completely disagree with the above statement. I think defense up the middle gets plenty of concern for almost all SOM players who are not new. So much so, it is believed that you can't win with a 3 at SS or a 3 in CF. I know for a fact you can. I also disagree that e-rating matters more than range (maybe he was not implying that but), we know for a fact range is far more important than e-rating... As far as I know the rest of his advice looks like good advice and you can not argue with his record.

Just for the record I make the playoffs with 60% of my teams (lifetime) and more recently like 75%. I have won a championship 20% of the time. This is with about 82 completed teams. My first ten tries (years ago) I did not make the playoffs. Since that time, I am making the playoffs 70% of the time.